(by Andrea Pinto) The air distance between the capitals of Iran and Italy is about 3750 km, but the distance between the two borders could be reached by Iranian missiles. THE missiles Iran can hit targets within a range of 300 to 2.500 kilometers from their launch point. L'Europe, or at least a part of it, making some calculations, could be reached by the arsenal of Tehran.
When a swarm of drones and cruise missiles attacked Saudi Arabia's largest oil facility on September 14, the Trump administration blamed Iran for what it called an "unprecedented attack" on global energy supplies. But the real surprise was the accuracy of the attack: of 19 missiles launched, only two failed their target. The examination of the military strategic news was published by the Washington Post.
American analysts in their reports described the attack on Saudi Arabia as a sort of wake-up call: the proven evidence of a vastly improved arsenal of high precision missiles.
In the event of a larger war with the United States, Iran can be expected to use such weapons to inflict substantial damage to any number of targets, such as US military bases, oil facilities or even attack Israel, analysts say. Last night, Iran fired more than a dozen ballistic missiles on two Iraqi military bases used by the United States.
"They're saying" Now we can hit them "Said Fabian Hinz, expert on the Iranian missile program at the Middlebury Institute for International Studies in Monterey, California. " What we have seen in Iran in recent years is a transition from missiles that were primarily political or psychological tools to real field weapons. This is a substantial change. "
US and Middle Eastern officials say the enhanced missiles used last night - some with a range of over 1.200 miles - are nothing more than a promise made by Iran to the US to avenge the killing of General Qasem Soleimani, the most powerful chief of the Iranian army.
Iran has however shown that it has changed its strategy, this time it has acted directly. Tehran has in the past often commissioned pro-Iranian militant groups - mainly Hezbollah based in Lebanon, but also delegates and sympathizers based in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Bahrain - to carry out a wide range of secret actions on its behalf, including including bombing and missile attacks, kidnappings and cyber warfare.
Today he has shown he has the ability to launch an effective attack on Iraq, the oil structures of the Persian Gulf, or an Israel.
"Iran attacks where it sees vulnerabilities and exercises moderation when it thinks that there may be important consequences", he has declared Karim Sadjadpour, political analyst of Iran at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington think tank.
For example, Sadjadpour said, missiles could be launched by Iranian Houthi allies in Yemen against "soft targets" such as oil infrastructures, airports or desalination plants in the Gulf states. Such attacks could significantly harm the economies of the United States' main allies, while triggering a major global rise in oil prices.
Less impact on a global level, but psychologically destructive, it would be a series of murders or kidnappings. After an Israeli agent killed several Iranian nuclear scientists a decade ago, Tehran has activated dormant cells and sent assassins to carry out murders of diplomats around the world. "India, Thailand and Georgia: places you wouldn't expect," Sadjadpour said of the attempts already made. "Embassies around the world should be on the alert, not just for the next few days, but for at least another year".
The improvement in Iran's missile capability is the result of the new strategy adopted ten years ago by the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. At the time, Tehran's most sophisticated missiles were derived from the Soviet-era Scuds that Iran and Iraq had fired at other cities during the 80s war. Since then, the country's military labs have had millions of dollars to create guidance systems to improve the accuracy of new missiles and upgrade older models.
The result is a line of short- and medium-range missiles capable of carrying warheads with an accuracy of about 10 meters, said an intelligence officer from the Department of Defense. The official spoke on condition of anonymity.
"We have observed significant improvements in the accuracy of Iranian ballistic missiles"The official said. Among the most surprising and potentially worrying developments is the technology on Iran's 500-mile Qiam missile that allows controllers to perfect its trajectory during the flight. The Fateh-110, a short-range model supplied to Hezbollah and other militant groups, has also been remodeled with electro-optical and radio-guiding systems so that it can focus on highly specific objectives. "
The September 14 attack on two oil plants in Saudi Arabia highlighted the use of armed drones and cruise missiles which are both highly maneuverable and difficult to stop with anti-missile batteries. Yemen's Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for that attack, although later US analysts concluded that missiles and drones had been launched from southern Iran. A United Nations investigation was unable, however, to find concrete evidence linking missiles and drones to Iran.
The costly anti-missile defense system built by the United States in Saudi Arabia has failed to stop the drone and missile attack, leaving local security forces with no means to defend the structures except with small arms.
General Joseph Votel, a former commander of US Centcom, who retired in March said improvements in Iran's missile capability have been surprisingly rapid.
"We've been watching them for a while, both with these drones and with missiles and other things that can actually penetrate defensive systems and get in and hit those sensitive targets“Votel said in an interview with CTC Sentinel, a publication from the Center for Combating Terrorism in West Point.
The most disturbing aspectVotel said it is the “maturation of these systems and the speed with which the Iranians are learning. They are taking advantage of what we have learned"
Iranian military power
The Iranian defense is "mosaic", with many centers of the Revolutionary Guards and the armed forces completely autonomous as regards command and control. The Navy operates with the concept of a "layered defense", with maximum firepower in each phase. Missiles are the primary strategic axis of "constrictive deterrence".
Iranian aviation and missiles, almost entirely under the control of Revolutionary Guards, are in good working order: 16 Embraer 312 Tucano, training and light attack aircraft; about 100 Toofan, combat helicopters entirely produced in Iran; about 10 strategic transport Ilyushin adapted for air combat; about 30 Soviet-Ukrainian-made transport Antonov (NATO code name "Cooler"); about 10 Dassault Falcon 20F, light transport aircraft commonly used for business and representation; about 30 Chinese light transport Harbins; about 70 material transport helicopters and Mil Mi-17 troops, also of Russian manufacture. The air force has 20 bases, with 16 air teams equipped with F14, MiG 29, F5, F7 and Fokker F27. Tehran also has the supersonic, highly maneuverable Russians Sukhoi Su30MKM, and the Chinese J10 and JF17 multirole. All are armed with long-range air-to-surface missiles.
Drones
There are five types of unmanned aircraft, all of Iranian manufacture: the Ababil, for medium-range recognition-surveillance; the various types of Mojaher, which spies on military installations and enemy positions; the combat Karrar, with attached high-speed UAV missile; the Shahed 129, another recognition-combat UAV, which can be in action for over 24 continuous hours; and finally, the ScanEagle, a short-range Boeing UAV.
The missile forces, all placed under the aegis of the Pasdaran, are based, as regards solid propellants, on three classes of weapons: the Fajr 3 and 5, with a maximum range of 75 km; the Naze'at, with a range of 100-130 kilometers; the Zelzal, with three types that hit targets at 150, 200 and 210 kilometers respectively. These are all missiles built in Iran but with the support of China. Currently, the Islamic Republic of Iran is completely independent from Beijing as regards the management and maintenance of all solid propellant missiles. Tehran can also autonomously produce liquid fuel missiles, the now classic SCUD B and C. 
Iran also has short-range missiles with solid propellants, such as the Chinese-made Tondar 69, designed on the model of the Soviet S-75 surface-to-air, and the Fateh 110, with a range of 200 kilometers. Long-range missiles are Iran's present and future strength: Tehran today owns the Shahab 3, based on the North Korean Nodong, which, in its MBRM (Medium Range Ballistic Missile) version, can reach targets 1.930 kilometers away and it is given in standard armament to 6 missile brigades. There are also: the Ghadr 110, a missile from 1.800-2.000 kilometers away; the Ashoura, a two-stage, technologically advanced, solid propellant MBRM, probably self-designed; the Sejil, with solid fuel, which will replace the Shahab; the Bina, with laser guide usable for both ground-to-ground and ground-to-air actions, with high precision fragmentation warhead; the Simorgh, an intercontinental missile for launching dual-use satellites.