(by Massimiliano D'Elia) Last week the ECB, at the end of the management meeting, removed the formula introduced two years ago from the end of the communiqué and left the door open for a new increase in the Qe in terms of entity and / or duration if the financial conditions had become less favorable.
Draghi, however, assured during the press conference that the Qe will be extended beyond September if the need arises. However, comforting data emerged from the internal summit, where it emerged that the macroeconomic picture appears to improve at least in the short / medium term and this has been confirmed by the new estimates of the ECB staff, which sees 2018 growth at the rate of 2,4% .
The major turbulence comes from overseas by Donald Trump's biased statements on the US duty issue. Last Friday, the American president declared that Cohn could return to his post. Donald Trump has been ironic that the former president of Goldman Sachs has gone to make "more 200 million dollars but he could come back". Trump praised Cohn, the architect of the administration's pro-business agenda, whose output had worried and not just Wall Street. Cohn has resigned because he did not look favorably on the imposition of duties on steel and aluminum.
The markets fear that the US president can ignore the pressing coming from many parts, including his Republican party, against the entry into force of 25% tariffs on steel and 10% on aluminum coming to USA from all countries. A move that, according to Fitch, could weigh on the global economy if several nations react to the Washington move with retaliations already aired by Canada and the EU.
In the world of markets and professionals, meanwhile, numerous rumors of protest for the moves of Trump rise or at least of decided skepticism. "A commercial war would be 'terrible' for global growth," said the director of the International monetary fund Christine Lagarde. "If international trade were to be challenged by such measures, it would be a channel for the decline in growth and a decline in trade ".
Before making any new comments, however, the International Monetary Fund is waiting to know the details of the Trump administration's decision regarding the introduction of duties on aluminum and steel.
"The immediate repercussions of trade decisions will not be great initially, he said Draghi, will also depend partly on what will be the retaliation, if there will be, on the European side, and what will be the effects on the foreign exchange market. What is most striking, beyond what may be its position on commercial issues, is that certain issues should be solved in a multilateral context. Unilateral decisions are dangerous ". "If you take such measures against your allies, then who are your enemies?"
The most "firm opposition"The decision of President Donald Trump to impose duties on imports of steel and aluminum and the denunciation of an" attack "on the multilateral trading system. "The abuse of the national security clause by the United States constitutes a deliberate attack on the multilateral trade system embodied by the World Trade Organization (WTO) and will certainly have a serious impact on the world trade system"Said the Chinese Ministry of Commerce in a statement.
Commercial wars "are bad and can be easily lost" replied the President of the EU Donald Tusk, stating that it is time for the American authorities to “act responsibly: there is a risk of a serious trade conflict between the US and the rest of the world.
But resistances to the provisions on trade, Trump finds them also in his house. Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve of Atlanta, warned against commercial wars that are not easy and hard to bring gains.
In Donald Trump's economic policy all the major players, as seen, are against or at least hesitant for the effects in the medium term. However, apparently the "elastic" policy made of President Trump's rhetoric is often not followed by practical effects, but has served to bring out the contenders and bring out positions unwelcome to the American administration. Example was yesterday's President Trump's attack on Germany that would contribute little to NATO's expenses. "The duties, Trump said yesterday, will especially affect Mercedes Benz and BMW, which, as we know, a large part of their market is developed in the US".
Trump, always yesterday complained about EU duties on American agricultural products and launched an assist: where the EU revises its downward duties even the United States would act accordingly ".
Apparently, therefore, the game will still be played on the rhetoric, with the hope that as for the Korea de Nord, there are also relaxing effects in the field of trade exchanges between the largest world economies.