Very interesting the examination made by Franco Iacch on Il Giornale.it, about the very near future of modern aviation. The UsAF is already planning the future, where fourth generation military aircraft will be sent to the rear to build critical mass. At the forefront of the fifth generation airplanes since those of the sixth generation, for now, remain only in the imagination of the most far-sighted.
The Air Force Research Lab, responsible for scientific research focused on the development of new technologies for US aviation combat, has published a new video on Youtube entitled "Air Force 2030 - Call to Action". This is a further look at the conceptual and cooperative tactics proposals for fifth and sixth generation assets envisaged in the Air Superiority 2030 Flight Plan.
The five-minute video shows several developing assets such as the Gremlins drones, Champ high-power microwave missiles and the Laser Shield for "new generation air domain in an environment with increasing and unpredictable threat" . Among the big absentees in the video published a few hours ago the B-21 Raider bomber.
The netcentric war occupies only a small part of the video, but it should be pointed out that future operations will rely on robust data linking architecture, which is essential to ensure the flow of secure and cyber resilience between human and unmanned teams.
“Research today is the aviation technology of tomorrow. The Air Force is looking for the next major research project underpinning future aviation capability. We cannot afford to slow down. While our opponents close the technological gap, we must push the limits of what is possible and invent the future ”.
It is clear that the Air Force already has some understanding of the kind of capabilities and technologies it intends to pursue and develop. In the video, the Air Force Research Lab imagines what air warfare might look like by the end of the next decade.
Air Superiority 2030 Flight Plan
On June 5 of the 2016 the USAF published the new official strategy for the next 15 years. In the guidelines to ensure air superiority and counteract the real threats that lie ahead until the 2030, the Pentagon does not provide for the construction of a new fighter. The Air Force has a plan to replace its traditional fighters, but we are still in the exploratory stages, while the sixth generation hunting specs are still on paper, although some prototypes are already being tested. The US combat fleet will be based on current platforms updated and implemented by an increasing number of F-35 and B-21 bombers. What the Air Force identifies as "family of capabilities" includes a set of capabilities integrated between different existing platforms. The Pentagon provides, at least up to 2030, an air force fighter frontline attack formed by F-22 air domain fighter, supported by the F-15 2040C as a flying arsenal.
The flying arsenal
One of the main limitations of the low observability configuration is determined by the internal load of the latest generation platforms. The ability to carry weapon systems internally is an essential prerogative for a clean stealth profile. The problem is that the F-22 only carries six BVR missiles, the F-35 only four. The proposed solution of the Air Force is the flying arsenal that is based on a platform, most likely it will be the B-52, able to transport dozens of missiles and precision bombs from the rear. An idea that the Air Force borrowed from the Navy, which converted four Ohio-class ballistic submarines for the transport of154 Tomahawk cruise missiles in place of the 24 Trident. It is clear that the Air Force relies on fifth-generation platforms, but it seems more like a dialectical exercise than a real operational plan. Numbers in hand, the Pentagon certainly can not hope to guard the sensitive areas of the planet and at the same time, to win a war with China or Russia with only 60 / 70 Raptor (123 converted to combat, but we must consider the other theaters and the hunting in maintenance). It should be noted that for the US military the close combat is now out of fashion, considering the best technology implemented in the platforms to decree the victory in the contexts of the future. In the new doctrine, in the fifth generation hunt, the advance would be beyond the visual range thanks to the avionics of the last generation. Once the threat was identified, the fighter connected to the net with the flying arsenal would transfer the targeting information. The Air Force pushes online for integrated combat forces that can perform a variety of tasks on a single mission. The stealth platforms that would no longer need to mess the profile, would continue to coordinate multiple attacks from the flying arsenals operating in the rear. The internal capacity of an F-35, with all the good intentions that you can have and try for the JSF, is not pure air superiority hunting like the F22. The F-35 was not designed for dogfighting. It was designed to eliminate the enemy from a distance, its strength is based on low visibility to the radar. The Flying Arsenal represents the umpteenth change in the strategic directions to compensate for the numerical gap between the US and the enemy platforms.
The F-15 2040C is born
The F-15 2040C could become the first force multiplier, opening the era of the flying arsenal. Boeing proposes to the Air Force a series of modifications for the extension of the F-15C operating life that would allow a better integration capacity with the fifth generation platforms such as Lockheed Martin's F-22 Raptor.
The F-15 2040C package would allow the Eagle to double the number of missiles carried. The update would give the F-15Cs greater autonomy and latest generation avionics. According to Boeing, the upgrade package "will help the US Air Force maintain its Air Dominance capabilities until the next generation of aircraft". Specifically, the F-15 2040C will be able to carry 16 air-to-air missiles and will be equipped with the Talon HATE, a complete communication suite integrated with the Raptor. The package also includes Raytheon APG-63 (v) 3 electronically-scan active radar and Eagle Passive / Active Warning Survivability System (EPAWSS) electronic warfare systems.
The F-35 in the war of the future: Next Generation Jammer
If a large-scale conflict erupts against a militarily modern country (China or Russia), the Pentagon excludes all fourth-generation aerial platforms from any first-line tactical planning. F-15 and F-16, even in their best performing versions, would not participate in the early stages of the conflict and not before having canceled the enemy defense network S300 / S400. The enemy's electronic nuisance capabilities are such as to cancel platforms prior to the fifth generation. The Pentagon would rely on four systems: F-22 for air superiority, F-35 for tactical aspect and B-2 and B-21 bombers. For the Pentagon only these four platforms could survive in a high-density environment and escape next-generation enemy ground-air missiles (A2 / AD).
In a hypothetical war against China, the Pentagon would deploy its air component in small units across the Pacific. The United States estimates the loss of regional hubs in the very early stages of the conflict. Thanks to the integrated technology, fifth generation platforms should be able to operate without any kind of ground support. F-15 and F-16 will always remain in the rear as force multipliers.
It is a way of thinking about the future - adds the General Pasquale Preziosa, former Chief of Staff of the Italian Air Force until 2016 - continue to use fourth generation aircraft for mass deployment in more classic situations.
"The EFA, for example, will one day no longer be used in high-density, non-permissive contexts. The future capacitive advantage is structured on the new technologies implemented on fifth generation aircraft ".
Stealth does not mean invisibility
The low observability platforms are obviously not invisible. A stealth profile is designed to delay detection and tracking of the enemy source. The F-35 is optimized against X-band radar, while it may be detected by systems that use lower frequencies.
A-UCAV: Penetrating Counter Air
In the strategic document Air Superiority 2030 Flight Plan there is no explicit provision for the construction of a new fighter. However, there are three letters: PCA, acronym for Penetrating Counter Air.
The document reads: "The PCA will have to maximize a series of compromises between autonomy, payload, survival, lethality, accessibility, and sustainability. Consistent with an agile acquisition mentality designed for entry into service according to the required times, rapid development is required that can respond to future threats. The PCA will have to respond to the growing platforms and advanced aerial and surface assets that are spreading all over the world ".
This could be the SR-72
Air Force 2030 - Call to Action
We analyze only the conceptual aspect of the video in the part concerning the F-35 / A-UCAV, leaving aside the problems that grip the development of the tactical platform, still in progress.
From Arsenale Volante to Flock from Dominio Aereo
The five-minute video shows the legacy left by programs like the X-planes, which were experimental aircraft in the late 40s that led to the first iteration of supersonic flight. At 3.12 minutes, the video released by the Air Force Research Lab shows a fifth generation flock. The flying arsenal in the rear (F-15 / B-52) in 2030 evolved into a formation that flies smoothly and deep into enemy territory. The platforms of the air domain flock themselves are now low observability as the command vector. The video shows a formation consisting of an F-35A and six A-UCAV or Advanced Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle with low observability. The reference is clearly aimed at the Loyal Wingmen program which provides mixed formations composed of autonomous unmanned platforms and human crews. Raider and Have Raider II tests performed in 2015 and last year on a pair of modified F-16s proved the viability of the Loyal Wingmen program.
The A-UCAV shown in the video are very advanced with completely queued floor plans. Platforms certainly low observability, with internal hold for weapons and air refueling probe. The Pentagon has certainly tested several low-observability assets with these characteristics, relegating the stealth tankers in development to a simple skid mirror.
The A-UCAV shown in the video are very different from the XQ-222 Valkyrie or UTAP-22 Mako drones. We know that the latter was tested in the Loyal Wingmen role with an AV-8B Harrier of the Marine Corps. That herd shown in video is designed to impose deep air domain in a context of the latest generation.
In the video Air Force 2030 - Call to Action, the F-35 pilot appears to be arguing with a computer-generated human head on the head-up display: it is an interactive augmented reality communication system. The Air Force imagines an Artificial Intelligence of advice and support with voice interaction. Advanced Artificial Intelligence may be able to help analyze the flow of information, accelerating the pilot's decision-making process and eliminating low-priority data. Identifying the threat, the F-35A pilot orders his wingmen to strike at enemy positions on the ground. One of the A-UCAVs disengages from the formation and attacks the target with the GBU-39 / B planar weapon system.
The role of the F-35
We need to think of the F-35 as part of a complex architecture made up of several platforms. The F-35 should confer undeniable advantages in a given operational context thanks to its low observability, on-board sensor capabilities and information integration with other platforms. Factors that give the F-35 a huge advantage over the aircraft it will replace. It is obviously not a pure fighter. Firstly because it does not have the altitude or speed of the F-22, but it should be able to eliminate enemies by exploiting its low observability and avionics (also in the making). Fifth generation aircraft like the F-22 and F-35 are not pure fighters, they are not real fighters. They are aircraft optimized for different threat regimes and capable of performing various missions. The specific aircraft no longer exists. There is, however, the aerial task platform that can perform a myriad of missions very well, probably not excelling in any role. The F-35 was not designed for dogfighting or one-on-one dueling. It was designed to eliminate the enemy from a distance.
F-35: The Air Dominion Storm is born
The goal of the Air Force Research Lab video is the theoretical perspective. Future tactics are shaped on the new assets. For that particular formation, we used the term air domain flock. Air dominance is not air superiority: they are two different things. Air domination is a term coined and valid only for the F-22, the first fifth generation operational fighter. Referring to the domain, Lockheed suggested an air-to-air flying arsenal mode with F-22 / F-35 formations. However when we talk about the arsenal, we have to think about drones in that role as well.
The F-35, a first-rate technological vector that by its conceptual nature cannot be a battle missile platform for integrated air dominance, is conceived as the fulcrum of the true flying arsenal in the air tactics of the future.
Next Generation Air Dominance / Penetrating Counter Air
Last year, the White House, in the form of a supplemental budget plan, suggested increasing the research and development budget of the future sixth generation fighter eightfold. In 2016, the annual budget of the Next Generation Air Dominance program was $ 21 million. In its latest budget request for fiscal 2019, the Air Force requested more than $ 500 million for the NGAD / Penetrating Counter Air program. This is double the amount required by the USAF to support the NGAD program in the 2018 fiscal year.
The PCA could be a low observability drone / aircraft that will exploit the know-how acquired with publicly and non-publicly tested platforms. This could be the SR-72 with combined cycle engine. Unlike traditional limitations (reactors, statoreactors and scramjet can only operate at different speeds), the new propulsion system aims to solve this problem by using a low-speed turbine engine and a high-speed scramjet.
The Penetrating Counterair re-evokes the concept of persistent reconnaissance for an A-UCAV capable of flying deep into enemy airspace and circumventing the problem of satellites, confined by their orbits.
Equip A-UCAV with aggressive AI: ALPHA
The advanced combat drones shown in the video “Air Force 2030 - Call to Action” are certainly equipped with artificial intelligence (AI) of some kind. We know that the Air Force Research Laboratory is developing ALPHA, an Artificial Intelligence created by Psibernetix, a company founded by the University of Cincinnati in collaboration with the USAF.
Specifically designed for the dogfight, its archive collects all the maneuvers of its digital and human opponents: statistics, simple and complex decision-making models, real and simulated maneuvers.
What distinguishes ALPHA is that the transition from elusive defensive to offensive actions occurs instantly. ALPHA is based on a decision-making system called “genetic fuzzy tree”, an algorithm of fuzzy logic. His approach involves dividing a complex problem X into sub-activities. The latter include all the tactics adopted by man. By dealing with variables, artificial intelligence makes complex decisions with extreme speed. According to the data released, ALPHA calculates the best maneuver in a complex and dynamic environment, 250 times faster than its human opponent. The aspect that most fascinates researchers is the reactive ability. Adaptive AI reacts instantly by calculating the possible intentions of the opposing pilot. ALPHA appears to have been designed for a cyclic flight profile for constant defensive and offensive actions. In fuzzy logic, the system basically calculates an immense web of predictions for a possible action / reaction. Priority is provided by the context analysis.
Alpha's current primary goal is to serve as an intelligent hostile force for pilot training within the Advanced Framework for SIMulation. ALPHA's fate is clear. The Air Force Research Laboratory expects its implementation in a real cell by 2025. Meanwhile, new aerodynamic models for the physical platform are being evaluated. The AI, meanwhile, will continue to expand its capabilities, serving as a prototype tester for the Air Force Research Laboratory. The first operational step within the next five years when ALPHA will serve as wingman in a mixed crew, so as to learn tactical decisions in real contexts.
Considering that between the development and experimentation of the military and what is shown to the public there is a gap of about 20 / 25 years, ALPHA could already fly for some time in its even more performing version. For the Air Force Research Laboratory, ALPHA is currently the most aggressive, reactive, dynamic and credible AI ever created.