Although the worst is behind us, the economic recovery in the 2017 (+ 1,5 per cent) is likely to fade as early as this year. According to the CGIA Studies Office, in fact, the latest forecast data prepared by the European Commission for 2018 (*) are very indicative: our real GDP is set to increase by 1,3 per cent.
Of all the 27 EU countries monitored, none will achieve a more contained growth than ours. Greece, for example, which is usually the European tail, this year will increase its wealth by 2,5 percent, while France will mark + 1,7 percent, Germany + 2,1 percent and Spain + 2,5 percent. And also the consumption of our families (+ 1,1 per cent) and those of the Public Administration (+ 0,3 per cent) will record the most shrinking increases in the whole EU. A very worrying result, given that the sum of the economic values of these two components constitutes the 80 per cent of our total national income.
On the subject of taxes, however, positive news is expected.
"Net of any corrective measures and the economic effects of the so-called Renzi bonus - underlines the coordinator of the CGIA Studies Office Paolo Zabeo - we estimate that the general tax burden will drop to 42,1 percent: 0,5 points in less than the 2017 figure. Therefore, the decline that began in 2014 continues. The result of 2018, however, will be obtained thanks to the positive trend of nominal GDP which will increase by more than 3 percentage points and not as a result of a contraction in tax revenues that instead, it will rise by 2 per cent. If the Gentiloni government had not postponed both the introduction of income tax on partnerships and sole proprietorships and the cancellation of sector studies, the general tax burden would have undergone a decidedly greater contraction, especially to the advantage of small and micro companies. companies "(see Table 1).
(*) European Economic Forecast - Institutional paper 063 - November 2017
The CGIA also points out that the level of growth achieved in the 2017 is the same as that recorded in the 2003 and to recover the situation before the crisis (2007) growth forecasts developed by Prometeia tell us that we will have to wait for the 2022-23 ( see Graf.1). If for exports we have recovered the pre-crisis level already in 2014, to "fill" the consumption of households and investments (public and private) lost in these 10 years of crisis we will have to wait for the 2019-20 and 2030 respectively (see Tab. 2).
On the labor front, finally, the European Commission estimates the unemployment rate down to 10,9 per cent, while the number of employed people should rise by 0,9 percentage points.
"Unlike what has happened in recent years - reports the Secretary of the CGIA Renato Mason - we hope that the new executive who will come out of the polls will return to dealing with strategic issues for the future of a country: such as, for example, creating work for quality, such as industrial and training policies to develop, how to face the challenges that the international economy presents to us. We need to address these issues, otherwise we risk seeing the already very worrying disconnect between the world of politics and the real country increase ”.
At regional level, the forecast data tell us that in the 2018 Veneto is destined to lead the ranking of GDP growth (+ 1,6 per cent). In second place we see Emilia Romagna and Lombardy (+ 1,5 per cent) and in fourth position Friuli Venezia Giulia (+ 1,4 per cent) (see Tab.3).
"Thanks to the export, to the consolidation of the industry that will take a decisive advantage from the strong increase of productive investments in progress and to the further growth of the tourist presences - Zabeo concludes - the Veneto returns to be the locomotive of the Country, even if the speed of The cruise is significantly lower than the one we recorded until the mid-2000 when we were competing for Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg as the most advanced manufacturing area in Europe. Unfortunately, the wounds inflicted by the crisis in recent years are still being felt ".
Finally, compared to 10 years ago, only the province of Bolzano (+12 per cent) and Lombardy (+0,4 per cent) have recovered the ground lost in the last 10 years of economic crisis. All the other territorial realities, on the other hand, show results that are still preceded by the minus sign. Among those currently lagging behind are Calabria (-11,2 percent), Liguria (-11,4), Sicily (-12,5), Umbria (-14,9) and Molise (- 16,9) (see Table 4).
