If the next executive fails to sterilize the increase in VAT, during the 2019 every Italian family will suffer an average tax increase equal to 242 euro. In detail, this increase will be equal to 284 euro per family in the North, 234 euro in the Center and 199 euro in the South (we hypothesized that the spending habits of Italian families do not change despite the increase in VAT. the average family expenditure was taken into account, as reported by ISTAT in its sample survey, therefore the following average annual expenditure amounts were considered: average Italian family 23.220 euro, average family of the North 26.475 euro, average family of the 22.293 Center euro, average family of the Mezzogiorno 18.932 euro The amounts are net of figurative rents) (see Table 1).
The CGIA study office has arrived at this result, which, through a theoretical simulation, has sized the economic effects that will affect families from the next 1 January. In fact, if 12,4 billions of euros are not recovered by the end of this year, the ordinary rate will go from 22 to 24,2 per cent, while that reduced by 10 will go up to 11,5 per cent. The coordinator of the CGIA Studies Office, Paolo Zabeo, says:
"We must absolutely avoid the VAT increase. Not only because it would particularly affect less wealthy and more numerous families, but also because the retouching of rates would have a recessionary effect on our economy. I remember, in fact, that the 60 per cent of the national GDP is attributable to household consumption. If VAT were to rise to the expected record levels, for artisan shops and small traders would be a huge damage, given that the vast majority of their respective turnovers is attributable to internal demand ".
Not only. If the increase is not defused, from the 2019 Italy will be the country with the highest ordinary VAT rate in the Euro area. From the current 22 percent, in fact, we will move to the 24,2 percent. This leap would allow us to override all and position ourselves at the top of the ranking of the most ill-treated by indirect taxes (see Tab. 2).
From its appearance to today, the CGIA continues, 45 years have passed. The ordinary VAT rate, in fact, was introduced for the first time in the 1973 and until this year 9 has increased (see Tab. 3). Among the main countries of the euro zone we are the one in which it has grown the most: well 10 points, a record, of course, that no one envies us.
If in the 1973 the rate was at the 12 percent, it now stands at 22 percent, with an increase, as we said above, of well 10 points. Germany follows, with a variation of + 8 points (it was at 11 now stands at 19 percent), the Netherlands, with an increase of 5 points (it was at 16 today is at 21 percent), Austria and Belgium, with increases in the period under review of + 4% and + 3% respectively. France is the only country present in this comparison that has not recorded any increase (see Table 4).
"If it is true that in these 45 years - concludes the Secretary of the CGIA Renato Mason - we have undergone the most significant rate increase, it is also true that in the 1973 the one applied in Italy was, with the exception of Germany, the most contained. However, if the expected increase will not be further moved forward, Italian consumers will be subjected to the highest ordinary VAT rate among all euro area countries by the 2019, with a serious risk that the shadow economy will take even more worrying ".
Finally, the CGIA has listed the goods and services that will be affected by the possible increase of the VAT rate from 10 to 11,5 per cent. They are:
- meats, fish, spices, cocoa, pastry products and biscuits, chocolate, sauces, condiments, soups and minestrone preparations, mineral water, vinegar;
- firewood in stumps, logs, etc .;
- electricity for domestic use;
- methane gas for domestic use (limited to the consumption of the first 480 cubic meters per year);
- hotel services;
- building renovations;
- purchase or construction of non-luxury homes (which is not used as a first home);
- theatrical performances, circus activities;
- administration of foods and beverages;
- plants and flowers.
And those who will eventually see the rate rise from the 22 to the 24,2 percent:
- wine;
- clothing;
- footwear;
- repair of clothing and footwear;
- domestic appliances;
- furnishings;
- furnishing articles;
- household linen;
- domestic services;
- repair of furniture, appliances and linens;
- detergents;
- pots, cutlery and crockery;
- napkins and plates of cards and aluminum containers;
- laundry and dry cleaners;
- cars and means of transport;
- spare parts, oil and lubricants;
- maintenances and repairs;
- Games and toys;
- radios, televisions, hi-fi, video-recorders, etc .;
- computers, typewriters and calculators;
- stationery;
- personal care products;
- barber, hairdresser, beauty parlors;
- silverware, jewelery, costume jewelery and watches;
- bags, suitcases and other personal belongings;
- free professional fees.