(by Massimiliano D'Elia) As expected, Afghanistan has come out of the spotlight of the international media. The Taliban, despite the promises of the Doha agreement, continue with their law, which is decidedly austere and against any form of westernization of the newborn Islamic Emirate and of society. Faced with a non-existent economy and with few prospects, there is no possibility for the population to be able to take some steps forward to improve their living conditions.
After the hasty US deployment from Afghanistan, the European Union would like to commit itself as a "lead block" in the region to avert an unprecedented exodus of refugees (Erdogan at the G20 said he will not welcome Afghan refugees). Unfortunately, however, the ideas in Brussels are unclear and conflicting with each other in the face of the interests, in that territory, of actors of the caliber of China, Russia and India. To help the flimsy EU foreign policy is a not secondary consideration: we do not yet have a European army, net of some declarations of intent on the common European defense and on a mini army of 5000 units.
Today the only ones to oppose the Taliban regime were, in the north of the country, a small group of fighters under the leadership of Ahmad Massoud, son of the anti-Soviet and anti-Taliban commander Ahmad Shah Massoud. They were, however, defeated by the Taliban in a blitzkrieg, thanks to the help of Pakistan's intelligence and drones. Most of them have since fled the country, meaning they have joined the terrorist group known as Isis-K (from the Syria-Khorasan province). It is difficult to say, but perhaps a faint hope to destabilize the Emirate of Afghanistan could arise precisely from Isis-K. Even if the result would not change the fate of the country at all, replacing one regime with another.
Isis-K is, in fact, reorganizing, confirming a new US intelligence report according to which some members well trained by the Americans of the elite special forces and Afghan intelligence agencies are joining the Islamic State to fight the Taliban. An alarm for Western observers because these new recruits will provide the Islamic State in Afghanistan with new skills and advanced skills that could make the group difficult to defeat in the coming months or even years.
Many Afghans, mostly members of the military and security forces, did not return to work after the Taliban took power, fearing that they would be killed. According to the Wall Street Journal, a "relatively small but growing" number of former members of Afghan security and intelligence agencies are now joining ISIS-K: they have been trained in unconventional warfare and intelligence gathering by United States, ”states the WSJ. The report also reports on the reasons for this enlistment: those who join ISIS-K want to secure a regular income and fight the Taliban because they are certain that they are on their deserters lists and therefore sentenced to death.
Afghanistan and its mineral wealth already in the crosshairs of China and Russia
Afghanistan possesses enormous and unspecified mineral riches: oil, iron, gold and precious gems, deposits of copper, lithium and rare earths. An equivalent value estimated by the Americans at three trillion dollars.
The withdrawal of the US from the country, followed by that of the allies of the coalition, is a great opportunity for those in that area with strategic interests and beyond. China e Russia they are already in the game, they are the only ones who have left the embassies open and operational with the approval of the new rulers, the Taliban. Afghanistan is part of the Chinese "Silk Road" but it is also an excellent opportunity for Russian interests in the field of hydrocarbons.
Then there is the question of the TAPI project. On 6 February 2020, a few days before the historic signing of theDoha agreement between the Americans and the Taliban (February 29, 2020), the Foreign Minister of Turkmenistan, Rashid Meredov, met with senior representatives of the Turkmen Foreign Ministry and a delegation from the political bureau of the Taliban movement led by the mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar. The reason for the meeting was the question of security in Afghanistan, resolved today with the takeover of the country by the Taliban. Turkmenistan is in fact intending to carry on the TAPI project, that is a gas pipeline that should cross Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, developed by Galkynysh - TAPI Pipeline Company Limited with the participation of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and with the support unconditional of Washington.
China is already ahead of all the others because it already holds important mining licenses. The most contested (for pollution due to alleged corruption) is the Mes Aynak, (translated: small source of copper) which will allow China for thirty years to be able to extract from the largest copper deposit in the world, estimated by the former Afghan government at 11,3 million tons of metal. The Chinese China Metallurgical Group (Mec) and Jiangxi Copper won the bid for three billion dollars in 2007.
The pharaonic Chinese project also includes a coal-fired power plant, a water network and a railway to Pakistan and Uzbekistan, in the area where there is an archaeological area home to ancient Buddhist monasteries. In those parts there is also an important mining site, the Hajigak, a deposit that contains about 2 million tons of iron, which extends for over 32 kilometers in the mountains. Then in that area there is also a deposit of niobium, a rare and precious metal used, writes the Sole24Ore, for applications in the defense sector.
China also holds the oil license assigned in 2011 for a duration of 23 years, to the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), relating to three fields along the Amu Darya River. There is no shortage of oil, in fact in the north of the country, 1,8 billion barrels of oil and gas have been discovered.
In all this commercial value, the NATO countries that have fought for twenty years, including Italy, are not received, despite having left over 3000 dead on the ground (Italy 54). Dealing with the Taliban today on new contracts seems really difficult, as they have wisely portrayed us as traitors to the Afghan people.