The Bank of Italy has certified the Italian public debt for the year 2018: it has risen by 53,2 billion to 2.316,7 billion. Economist Renato Brunetta of Forza Italia immediately commented on the data: "With Italy entering recession from the fourth quarter of 2018, the 2019 debt / GDP ratio will be higher than the estimated 2,04%, probably between 2,5 , 3,0% and XNUMX% ".
Investors therefore remain cautious with Italy where the climate of uncertainty does not favor recovery, indeed…. In November 2018, the stock of government bonds held abroad amounted to 646,8 billion (27,5% of the total), down from the 651,8 billion in October (27,9%).
Istat also confirmed the not exactly exciting data. In 2018, the value of the Italian trade balance reached 39,8 billion (47,6 billion in 2017), a positive figure but which is affected by the sudden slowdown in exports recorded in the last period of the year. The deterioration of the macroeconomic framework has prompted the rating agency Fitch to follow the ratings of Moody's by revising downwards the growth estimates of Italy in 2019 from 1,1% to 0,3% in the context of a general scissoring at GDP growth forecasts in the Eurozone (from + 1,7% to + 1%).
According to Fitch, the deterioration in growth prospects and the decline in inflation expectations could push the European Central Bank to restart quantitative easing. The European Central Bank also confirmed this hypothesis. It is possible that a new round of subsidized loans for the banking sector (Titro) will be set up. On 7 March, the president of the ECB Mario Draghi could dispel any doubts in this regard.