Chaos Afghanistan, American withdrawal beyond 31 August with very high risk of attacks. Activated Craf for the use of US civilian aircraft

"A difficult, painful operation: I am heartbroken to see those images", So Joe Biden yesterday he said to the Nation, during his third television speech to unified networks. We will use civil aviation to take away as many civilians as possible, the US president said. To echo him, Donald Trump which called the US exit from Afghanistan one "Shame on America". During a rally in Alabama, the Tycoon thundered: "Other than Vietnam! This is a huge blot on American reputation and history. We are facing an unprecedented disaster, the greatest humiliation in our history. And Europe and NATO no longer believe in us. With me America was respected and none of this would have happened, while now the Taliban flag flies over the American embassy ”. Trump then added: "the Taliban are great negotiators and tenacious fighters ".

Very interesting is Biden's confirmation on the possibility of extending the stay of US troops in Afghanistan beyond 31 August while fears remain about the terrorist threat linked above all to the presence of ISIS (confirmation directly from intelligence). Biden then thanked countries like l'Italy, Spain , Germany for the work they are doing together with the United States and the entire G7.

However, the emergency is not only at Kabul airport but also in US bases in the Middle East, which are now collapsing due to the arrival of thousands of Afghan refugees and American and Western citizens. To dispose of all these people in a reasonable time, six US airlines will be interested - from American Airlines to Delta via United - which will make available, to start at least 18 airliners, to help transport to Europe and the United States. the people evacuated from Kabul aboard military cargo, and now amassed in bases in Qatar, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. From here, civilian aircraft will depart for other bases in Germany, Italy, Spain and other European countries, as well as to the United States. At the same time, airliners will shuttle back and forth from US bases in the Old Continent to US bases.

The Pentagon has therefore activated the emergency program of the Civil Reserve Air Fleet (CRAF). A plan born 70 years ago in the middle of the Cold War, in 1952, after the Berlin airlift in 1948, the one organized by the Western powers to help the citizens of West Berlin who were isolated with the blockade of communication routes put in place by the Soviet Union . Only twice, writes the Ansa, has a decision as extreme as the one taken by Biden been made in these hours: on the occasion of the first Gulf War in 1991 and the war in Iraq in 2002.

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Do not go beyond August 31st


While the evacuations at Kabul airport continue, with many difficulties, the Taliban threaten the United States and allies: "If the US and Great Britain try to buy time to continue the evacuations from Afghanistan, there will be consequences". These are the words of Suhail Shaheen, a spokesman for the Taliban and a member of the group's negotiation team in an interview with Skynews in Doha. For the Taliban, in fact, President Biden's announcement of the withdrawal of troops by 31 August is mandatory. "If they extend the limit, it means that they are extending the occupation and there is no need", the Taliban spokesman reiterated, stressing that if "the intention is to continue occupying" Afghanistan "trust will be broken and there will be a reaction ".

The well-known military analyst wrote on his Linkedin profile about the American withdrawal beyond August 31, Franco Iacch:

"Evacuation operations from Afghanistan should be completed by 31 August next. Although violence across the country is on the rise, the security perimeter set up around Kabul International Airport resists. Hamid Karzai is defended by about 5200 US Army units with guaranteed H24 close air support. The terrorists also created a two-kilometer buffer zone around the airport to prevent further civilians from blocking the airport. This means that it will be increasingly difficult for the population to flee the country. The Taliban could attack the perimeter around the airport at any time, especially through the use of rockets and artillery, but it would be counterproductive. So far the Taliban forces in Kabul have chosen not to fight the departing Western forces and probably will not. The situation could change, writes Iacch, if Biden decides to postpone his departure from Kabul. Such an event could trigger disturbance actions forcing the Americans to expand the perimeter (but more troops would be needed) to protect the airlift. Currently, US forces' current ground projection capabilities are strictly limited to Kabul Airport. The nervousness among the Taliban will increase close to 31 August. The one who has a vested interest in attacking Kabul airport is the Islamic State. The infiltration of intelligent IEDs into the crowds huddled on the airport security perimeter is a real possibility. Several infiltration units or drones would wreak havoc in a multiple scenario where anyone would become the enemy. As for the Taliban, it is plausible to assume that they will not interfere at least for a useful window of seven / eight days. If the only aim is to save as many lives as possible, the international community will have to avoid strong actions that could reduce this useful time window. Close to the deadline, the terrorists could orchestrate an attack, perhaps with some loss among their ranks. It would be the pretext for "securing" the perimeter by dispersing the crowd and hitting American public opinion once again. Orchestrating an attack, blaming the Islamic State or Ahmad Massoud, would be plausible. The attack could also be sponsored by some terrorist friendly country. The Islamic State will do everything to hit the airport. Two sworn enemies, Taliban and American, would be hit in the wake of two significant events: the departure of US troops from Afghanistan and 11 September. The situation in Afghanistan is complex, fluid and very risky. The alternatives are a new round of fighting or US soldiers forming a wall with Afghans left to their fate. In any case it will not go well. Religion is a pretext: terrorists only want death ", concludes Iacch.

Chaos Afghanistan, American withdrawal beyond 31 August with very high risk of attacks. Activated Craf for the use of US civilian aircraft

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