In the face of a fall that in 2020 would seem to amount to 9,9 percent, in 2021, however, GDP should return to grow by 4,1 percent. Translating these data into absolute and nominal values, it emerges that in 2020 the crisis would have burned 156 billion euros of wealth present in the country. During this year, however, we should get back on top and recover 83, recording a negative balance of 73 billion in this two-year period.
These are the results that emerge from an analysis conducted by the CGIA Studies Office regarding the comparison of Italian GDP for the two-year period 2020-2021. Report the coordinator of the Studies Office Paolo Zabeo:
"At a per capita level, we estimate that last year every Italian lost an average of 2.600 euros in income, while this year they will regain just under 1.400 euros. In the two-year period 2020-2021, therefore, the balance will be negative and equal to just over 1.200 euros. This year, therefore, we will see a rebound in our economy that will make us recover only a part of the contraction recorded in 2020. Consequently, it is likely that we will return to a pre-Covid situation no earlier than 2024. It will therefore be decisive to spend all and well the 209 billion in aid that will reach us from the European Union. Otherwise, we risk that our country will end up on a dead end and the current economic crisis will turn into an unprecedented social crisis, where the weakest, such as young people and women, will pay the highest price ”.
And with regard to the European credit legislation which entered into force yesterday, the CGIA stresses that the real problem will not concern, in particular, the new definition of default, but the very measured attitude that credit institutions will be obliged to keep. following the provisions introduced by this measure on the "management" of impaired loans.
"The new default definition - declares the secretary Renato Mason - it will force banks to behave very cautiously towards households and businesses. With the lowering of the overrun threshold, in fact, we will record a surge in non-performing loans. To avoid having an excessive amount of NPLs, Brussels has imposed on banks the devaluation in 3 years of unsecured risk loans and in 7-9 years for those with collateral. It is clear that the application of these measures will induce many credit institutions to adopt an attitude of great caution in disbursing loans, in order to avoid, within a few years, having to incur significant budget losses. In light of all this, it is clear that starting this year it will be very difficult for many SMEs to access bank credit ”.
Secondo the estimates made last November by the European Commission, among the Italian economic indicators, household consumption is of great concern. The latter, which constitute the most important component of the national GDP (about 60 per cent of the total), will undergo a significant contraction in 2020. In absolute terms, households will “save” around 110 billion euros (-10,5 percent compared to 2019). Basically, each Italian family will reduce their annual spending on purchases by around 4.400 euros. In 2021, however, the recovery will be “only” of +3,8 percent.
Even more worrying is the investment trend. In 2020 they are set to collapse by 13,6 percent, while for the current year they are expected to increase by 7,2 percent.
Exports will also suffer a meltdown. In 2020, a fall of 16,7 percent is estimated, which will only be partially recovered this year. The forecasts of Brussels, in fact, indicate for 2021 a growth in our sales abroad of +10,3 percent.
In general, they conclude from the CGIA, the gravity of the situation emerges even more clearly if we compare the current economic situation with what happened in 2009, annus horribilis of the Italian economy of the last 75 years. At that time, the GDP fell by 5,5 percent and the unemployment rate, within 2 years, went from 6 to 12 percent. If things go well, GDP will fall by around 2020 percent in 10. With a collapse almost double that recorded 12 years ago, it is clear that such a vertical drop will have very negative effects on the labor market. In fact, when the freeze on layoffs, scheduled for March 31st, is lifted, we run the risk of seeing the number of people without a job increase dramatically. A problem that will mainly affect young people and women.