Count, stay calm

(by Francesco Matera) Conte, stay calm, the synthesis of Renzi's speech to the press yesterday in the late afternoon. He announced the resignation of two of his ministers and an undersecretary but also said he was ready to stay "in the majority, if they want us". On Conte: "I have no prejudices against him“, Stating that we are not the ones opening the crisis.

Renzi then assured the government that Iv is ready to vote on the anti-Covid measures, the budget variance and the refreshment decree.

It feels like watching a "schizophrenic" chess game, move against move. Renzi broke but did not close the door, at least so it seems. Now it's up to Conte to make the other move, according to the stakes indicated by the Quirinale: no new government without a solid and reliable majority, is essentially not in favor of a government supported by the so-called "responsible". Mattarella has made it clear that he wants solid majorities with a clear perimeter.

The moves to play are few and very dangerous. Start a negotiation through a legislative pact, making a parliamentary passage. Ultimately evaluate the resignation, go up to Colle and receive a new mandate, then propose a new majority to Mattarella, without Iv. All these are paths with insurmountable obstacles that could lengthen the crisis, a time delay that Mattarella does not want: "Try to quickly get out of the state of uncertainty in which the government finds itself, there is the alarming situation caused by the pandemic to be addressed, for the rest, the summary is up to you ". Mattarella has therefore abandoned Conte to his fate, has not suggested any solution, will he have the ace up his sleeve? A new technical government? An institutional government of the President?

The scenarios

The Quirinale listens to the heads of the parties, the parliamentary group leaders and the presidents of the Chamber and Senate and then awaits the parliamentary passage in order to ascertain whether or not the relationship of trust between the government and the majority remains. Conte immediately goes to the Chambers, parliamentarizing the crisis. At that time he will be able to understand if there is room for a new majority to be born. Conte, however, could also challenge Renzi in the Senate by asking for trust by letting the "responsible" come out.

The only sure thing is that Mattarella gave a "dead line" on January 20 next. A very short period where anything could happen, even deciding to anticipate the elections.

Count, stay calm