At present, critical situations relating to the Covid-19 epidemic are not reported in Italy. This is in summary the result of the monitoring of the indicators for the so-called Phase 2 for the week between 25 and 31 May. It should be noted that, for the time between exposure to the pathogen and the development of symptoms and between these and the diagnosis and subsequent notification, many of the cases reported this week probably contracted the infection 2-3 weeks before, or during the first phase reopening (between 4 and 18 May 2020).
The main results of the monitoring
Overall, the general picture of the transmission and impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Italy is favorable with a general decrease in the number of cases and an absence of signs of overload of the assistance services. There is also a strong improvement in the quality and detail of the data sent by the Regions / PPAA to the Ministry of Health and the Istituto Superiore di Sanità and discussed in the Control Room.
In some regional situations, a number of new cases reported each week are still high, albeit decreasing. This should call for caution as it indicates that in some parts of the country the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 is still relevant.
Furthermore, active transmission outbreaks are documented in almost the entire peninsula. This finding, which is largely due to the intense screening and investigation of cases with identification and monitoring of close contacts, nevertheless highlights how the epidemic of COVID-19 in Italy has not ended.
The estimate of the transmissibility index (Rt) for the start of symptoms in the period from 12/5 to 25/5, calculated on 3/6/2020, shows average values below 1 in all Regions / PPAA. As regards the estimation of Rt, it is emphasized that when the number of cases is very small, temporary fluctuations with Rt> 1 may occur due to small local outbreaks, without this necessarily representing a worrying element.
The lockdown measures in Italy have effectively allowed a control of SARS-CoV-2 infection on the national territory even in a context of persistent widespread transmission of the virus with a very different incidence in the 21 Regions / PPAA. The situation described in this report, relating mainly to the first transition phase, is overall positive.