(To Vanessa Tomassini, PRP Channel correspondent in Tunis) Saturday we met the Mauritanian researcher El-Hussein el-Hallawi and the ex-spokesman of the Supreme Council of Tribes, Mohamed Umar Ahmed Musa, with whom we tried to analyze the possible scenarios in Libya, in the light of the current crisis. Most experts and observers agree that, at present, reaching a political solution remains difficult to achieve in Libya. Dr Hallawi believes it depends primarily on "from the Libyan mentality that tends to be excluded, refusing to share power with other parties, thus making the nature of domination prevail, which works to demonize and destroy others".
A second factor that drives away the political settlement is that most of the current political elite and public figures do not want the political solution, which will lead to elections in favor of new faces, making them lose their privileges and current earnings, this has led to the intransigence of politicians and not to accept abdication.
Wanting to analyze the current situation, it is clear that in Libya we are witnessing one "Imbalance of power in favor of the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Marshal Khalifa Haftar, as it currently extends its control over more than three quarters of the Libyan area (inhabited by 48% of the population) and controls four out of five ports to export oil and its derivatives and two oil refineries from three refineries in the country, 78% of the oil fields are under its control. It controls 8 air bases in eastern, southern and western Libya, out of 11 bases across Libya. This causes Hafter to rely heavily on the war and reject the politic solutiona". Finally, foreign interference, the flow of weapons, equipment and mercenaries to Libya should not be forgotten.
All this, lets imagine two possible scenarios. The first is that in which the war continues for another year, where the time factor is in favor of the Libyan national army (LNA). "The harder the war, the more militia resources are unloaded in Tripoli, especially after 78% of Libya's oil exports have been stopped ". The researcher explained to us that "The government of Al-Serraj and its forces depend mainly on oil revenues, while Haftar counts financially on both the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, which provide it with 42 million dollars a month (mainly from the United Arab Emirates), the majority part of this money goes as salaries to Hafter's forces that exceed fifty thousand fighters".
For Hallawi, the continuation of the war means "The fall of Tripoli in the hands of Haftar, and therefore its complete control over Libya, with its uniqueness of decision and the return of tyranny again in a way that does not differ much from what the Libyans have lived for four decades" .
This hypothesis leads to a second scenario: mass demonstrations that reject war with the collaboration of all public figures. Hallawi reminds us that "there is a third flow which constitutes the silent majority in Libya. The leaders of this flow are a cultural and political elite that did not participate in the previous regime, or in the system that followed February 2011, and is made up of academics, social leaders, activists, intellectuals, young people and women. For months, they tried to coordinate with each other to move the Libyan road in a massive movement of civil disobedience, starting from villages, cities and rural areas, which are far from being taken by the militias, and then gradually spread until it reaches the main cities on the Mediterranean".
We started to see it with the birth of spontaneous movements, coalitions between parties, peace conferences. This is not a real political ideology, but spontaneous reactions from tribes and groups of people who do not feel represented neither by the Government of National Agreement (GNA), nor by the bloody campaign of Haftar. A peaceful current that requires change without the use of weapons, similar to what happened in Algeria, Sudan and Lebanon.
The Mauritanian researcher claims that "This trend, if its efforts succeed in the coming months, will lead to one or more local actors, who will overthrow the leaders of the public scene, will establish a complete national reconciliation and transitional justice that frees the oppressed, does justice to the victims of the violations of the human rights and the trial of warlords in the courts ". The next few weeks are shaping up to be full of events.