Despite the corrections approved by the Chamber of Deputies, in the 2019 the budget maneuver will cost the Italian entrepreneurial system 4,9 billions of euros. Of these, 3,1 billion will weigh on non-financial companies and 1,8 billion on credit institutions and insurance companies. To say it is the Study Office of the CGIA which, through its coordinator, Paolo Zabeo, states:
"Thanks to the increase of the IMU deductibility on the sheds, to the restoration of the deductions on the 4.0 training. and to the commitment to lower the Inail prizes, in the Chamber the majority of the Government has decreased, compared to the text published by Palazzo Chigi, from 6,2 to 4,9 billion the increase in the enterprises caused by the maneuver. An important effort, but not yet sufficient. The expectations of entrepreneurs, especially in the tax area, have been largely disregarded. Not to mention that with the removal of the local tax block planned for maneuver, there is the danger that the 2019 will return to increasing the weight of local taxes ".
As he had the opportunity to do a fortnight ago analyzing the text of the bill approved by the Council of Ministers, the Office of the CGIA also performed the same operation on the text approved last week by the Chamber of Deputies to assess the net effect of the measures envisaged for companies: the result is still very negative. In fact, in the 2019, the levy on private companies is set to increase by 3,1 billion and on the banking and insurance institutions of 1,8 billion. Fortunately, things will be much better in the following years: in the 2020 the economic system will suffer a reduction in the amount of 1,7 billion and in the 2021 the tax relief will rise to 2,2 billion.
The CGIA states that the listing of the measures introduced by the Budget Law has also included the announced, but not yet approved, reduction of the Inail premium. However, the effects of the measures introduced definitively by the simplification decree have not been counted. That is, the abolition from the 1 2019 of the Sistri and the introduction of the guarantee fund for SMEs that find themselves in difficulty in repaying the installments of loans obtained from banks following the non-payment of the Pa. These 2 measures, however, should facilitate companies for an amount not exceeding 70 million euros per year.
"Of course - reports the Secretary of the CGIA Renato Mason - with the budget law currently under discussion in the Senate was introduced the flat tax in favor of self-employed workers with revenues of less than 65 thousand euros per year. Despite this, in the 2019 the tax relief will be only 331 million. A small step in the right direction that, however, still remains completely inadequate, even if the tax savings will be of 1,3 billions of euros ".
It should however be remembered that with the 2019 maneuver the VAT increase was sterilized in the amount of 12,6 billion. If this had not happened, the increase in rates would not have had direct effects on companies, even if, very probably, consumption would have decreased further, negatively affecting the revenues, in particular, of self-employed workers, artisans and small traders who live almost exclusively on household consumption.
As we said above, in the 2019 there is the danger of a possible increase in local taxation. Having removed the blocking of the local tax rates introduced in the 2015 by the then Renzi Government, it is very likely that many mayors will return to raise them up. According to some estimates, the 8.000 Municipalities present in Italy well the 81 percent has the margins to increase the IMU on the second houses and even the 85 percent to raise the additional Irpef. Moreover, it is not to be excluded that, having increased the deductibility of the IMU on the sheds, some early citizens could be tempted to raise the rate of their competence, at least up to the threshold that does not allow entrepreneurs to pay more than they actually did in the 2018.
It should also be pointed out that between the 2010 and the 2017 the public finance measures carried out by the local Autonomies have led to a contraction of the available resources equal to 22 billion. The most affected were the Municipalities. If the "sfissiciata" reached the 8,3 billions of euros in the coffers of the mayors, the lower revenues for the ordinary statute regions have stabilized at 7,2 billion. The provinces, however, have suffered a decrease in resources equal to 3,5 billion, while the Special Statute Regions formally have not endured any contraction, even if the central state has imposed them to set aside well 2,9 billion.
It is therefore clear that many mayors, in the face of the cuts in transfers that have taken place in recent years, if they have the opportunity, they will certainly not miss the opportunity to put their hands on revenues, by acting on the tax lever. We hope that in the discussion in the Senate this hypothesis is "frozen", as happened in the last 3 years.