Affari e Finanza wanted to highlight the static nature on the stock exchange of the stock of one of the most representative jewels of the Italian military production system, Leonardo ex Finmeccanica, despite recent high level orders.
Successful achievements in Qatar in March, with an order of helicopters NH90 for over 3 billions of euros and that in the United States where together with Boeing Leonardo has won a contract for over 2,4 billion, marking, probably the long-awaited breakthrough.
When it was still called Finmeccanica, the Italian group had tried to get into US military contracts but never succeeded. Only with the US 101, back in 2002, Italy (AgustaWestaland) had managed to win the tender for the helicopter of the president of the United States.
Leonardo's helicopters are a real family built around the basic model, the AW 139. The "family" of helicopters is completed by a slightly smaller model, the AW 169, and by a larger one, the AW 189. The production plants, concentrated in Italy, the United Kingdom, Poland and the United States, act in an integrated way and are organized around "centers of excellence" that support the final assembly lines, located in Vergiate and Tessera in Italy, in Yeovil in the UK, Swidnik in Poland and Philadelphia in the US.
Returning to the stock market, in November of this year the Leonardo stock suddenly fell by more than 30 percent after the announcement of the revised guidance.
Then the title had dropped in a single session from 15 to 10 euro, until it still falls to a minimum of 8,6 euro the 29 May; today, just under a year after the profit warning, the title is sailing around 10,8 euro. Substantial stagnation, despite the super-contracts mentioned signed in recent months.
According to the Bloomberg consensus, the "buy" (buy) or "add" (add) or "outperform" (will do better than the market) are two thirds of the total, the other third aligns itself on a promising "hold", while there is not even an analyst who advises to sell the stock.
The average target price at 12 months, specifies Business and Finance, or the level that the stock can reach in the following year, is expected by analysts at 12,16 euro, with a potential growth of about 15 percent compared to today's values.
Alessandro Pozzi of Mediobanca Securities even goes so far as to predict a rise in the stock up to 14 euros, with an “outperform” judgment: "You get there with a standard valuation approach, the stock can return to 2017 levels," he says. Gabriele Gambarova of Banca Akros also set an above-average target price of € 13,25.
There are many good reasons - theoretical, of course, according to analysts - to buy the stock, which appears largely undervalued: for example, compared to competitors, the multiples at which it is traded are about 11 times the invoice / earnings ratio against an average sector equal to about 17 times. "Compared to this parameter, today there is a 37 percent discount compared to competitors - explains Monica Bosio of Banca Imi - and although it is true that historically, for various reasons, Leonardo has always treated at a discount compared to the others, now the title is really compressed ».
There is also the issue of debt, which will remain fairly high in the 2018, albeit less than that of the 2017, attested to 2,57 billion.
Other factors Among the elements that play against the level of Leonardo's share is the fact that the group is listed on the Italian list, which is not exactly among those preferred by investors at the moment, especially after the establishment of the yellow-green government. . In addition, the company has major factories in Britain struggling with Brexit.