SVIMEZ, expresses concerns about midday

At an interest rate charged by 3,1% banks to medium-sized companies in Trentino Alto-Adige in 2017, it corresponds to one in 9%, three times higher, for small businesses in Calabria. Nevertheless, the reduction in interest rates implemented by the ECB through the unconventional policies of Quantitative Easing. The different weight of the cost of money, so macroscopic, therefore turns into a heavy southern economy and it is clear that, in view of a prolonged increase in interest rates on public debt securities as it is taking shape, there will inevitably be negative repercussions especially for businesses and families in the southern regions. An interesting study, edited by the professors Imbriani and Lopes, published in the 1-2 2018 issue of the Economic Review of Southern Italy, published by SVIMEZ, highlights the serious consequences for the southern productive system, already characterized by higher risk profiles than to the rest of the country: in fact, in the 2017, the top five banking groups have reduced their loans to the South by 0,2% compared to the 2016, while they have increased them in the North-Central area of ​​1%.
This cautious attitude of credit institutions, especially larger ones, in providing credit to companies according to the authors is also attributable to the supervisory model that has been consolidated with the revision of the Basel agreements and the ECB's interventions. All these measures were characterized by the imposition of increasingly stringent constraints on banks as regards capitalization and liquidity and risk management which, at the microeconomic level, should allow greater resilience to adverse situations. On the other hand, this approach presents problematic aspects from a macroeconomic point of view, since it imposes constraints on banks to prevent companies from supporting the credit system to the extent that it would be necessary above all in the weaker areas characterized by profiles. higher risk; in short, the accentuation of the dualism in the credit market ends up prejudicing the establishment of a virtuous relationship between the bank and the company and, ultimately, the stability of the banking system that we want to pursue.
The SVIMEZ, in the Forecast to the 2018 Report illustrated by the Director Luca Bianchi, evaluated the effect of the spread widening in the Center-North and in the South: a stable increase in the spread at current levels (about 300 points) would result in lower growth 2019 of about 0,33% and 2020% of 0,35%. In the Center-North, the effect would instead be 0,22% next year and 0,25% the next. These figures give rise to two considerations: firstly, a steady increase in the cost of debt strongly limits the expansive effectiveness of the redistributive measures adopted with the economic maneuver. Secondly, the negative effect of raising the spread would be greater in the South, since a higher rate differential leads to a decrease in the net assets of the banking system, reflecting in a rationing of loans to customers. And this would affect more the investments of southern companies, which have greater financial needs that are not always able to satisfy. If we analyze the most recent data on the performance of loans, we note that the amount of loans disbursed has already decreased in the second quarter of 2018, particularly in the South, together with the increase in the spread.

SVIMEZ, expresses concerns about midday

| Economics |