(by Massimiliano D'Elia) The British secret services are certain: the Russian military is one step away from humiliating defeat in Ukraine, they have already lost 25 percent of their war capacity.
The findings from the bulletin published yesterday by London tell us that the Ukrainians, thanks to weapons and know-how western, managed to destroy most of the old weapons of the former Soviet Union but also at least one example of the most modern and most powerful Russian tank, the T-90M. Clear sign that Moscow is in serious trouble because it has only one hundred T-90Ms and is unable to reproduce them as it would like due to the sanctions that deprive it of high-tech components not produced internally. A widespread difficulty in all the most crucial and vital sectors of the economy which is inexorably reflected, albeit not yet markedly, also on the daily life of the Russian population.
Returning to the military, the more cautious and foresighted head of the Co., William Burns argues that Putin cannot afford to lose, so far he has redoubled his efforts on the ground with the intention of reaching all the objectives set as soon as possible. Moscow changed its strategy by carpet bombing enemy territory to advance its means only and only after having been certain that it had annihilated the Ukrainian defenses. In the future, in the event of further difficulties and depletion of forces, it could, however, resort to lethal strategic weapons. As is well known, defeat does not exist in his vocabulary.
Burns, for the first time, also admits that the crisis in Ukraine is closely followed by the Chinese leadership, not in function of support to Russia but to learn lessons from the battlefields in order to be able to aspire one day to the taking by force of Taiwan.
On 9 May, while Moscow will celebrate the victory over Nazism, complete with a military parade and explicit references to symbol of war the "Z" (in the rehearsal of the parade the air force planes have drawn a huge Zeta in the sky), the big seven, together with Zelensky, will meet in videoconference to discuss the war and the next moves / resources / weapons to be put in place.
The American analyzes, as seen, are more cautious than the British ones. The President Biden to warn the press not to publish the tips obtained by the stars and stripes intelligence, such as the news about the sinking of the Russian ship Moskva and the killing of a dozen Kremlin generals.
Draghi flies to the USA
The Italian prime minister flies for the first time, in an official capacity, to the United States. There are many issues on the table, the war in Ukraine, energy collaboration, relations with China, Libya, the fight against the pandemic, climate change and world hunger.
Draghi will try to bring the voice of the EU along the lines already drawn to EU parliamentarians where Italy aims to defuse the weapons debate and insist on embargoes and sanctions, always anchored to the positions of NATO, but in the awareness that Europe must have its role.
To clarify the situation in the last few hours the Foreign Minister took care of it Luigi Di Maio"Having opened up to Ukraine's neutrality, Zelensky has now said he is willing to consider Crimea out of the peace deal. Now Putin must demonstrate that he wants to sit at the negotiating table. For us, support for Kiev is within the framework of the principle of self-defense, not beyond that".
Surprise response without the endorsement of the Alliance countries. Yesterday the general secretary of NATO, Jean Stoltenberghe said instead that the Atlantic Alliance will never accept the illegal annexation of Crimea, nor Russian control over Donbass and eastern Ukraine.
Moscow's answer to vitriol. Moscow's response was immediate, which made it known that it did not want to give up Crimea and Donbass, but intends to bring both the Kherson region and the whole area around Mariupol under it. Moscow's clear intention to control the entire coast overlooking the Sea of Azov to economically sterilize a likely neutral and pro-Western Ukraine in the bud.
Energy dossier
On the energetic field, the United States will push on the total European embargo on Russian gas, an argument currently not admissible by the Italian and German governments, because the two countries depend more than 40 percent on Moscow gas. The transportable liquid gas (LNG) by ship, proposed by the Americans, is very expensive and subsequently requires the use of modern regasifiers for the transformation. In Italy we have few and building others would require a lot of time and additional funding. As regards this alternative energy source, Italy looks to Qatar, which is already its first LNG supplier, but also toEgypt. Another 5 billion cubic meters should come from Congo in 2023-2024.
Il lng can only be used after being treated in regasifiers, but Cingolani told Sky TG24 that this is not a problem also because floating structures. "The ship berths it where there is a gas pipe and there are several ignition points in Italy. It is bought or rented for 400-500 million, it gives 5 billion cubic meters a year and we know that when the transition has gone on, the ship will send her away ", he said, adding that the first of these structures should arrive in the first half of 2023. In addition to new structures, there are plans to upgrade existing ones as well. According to what is learned from ENI, the quantities of LNG treated in the three existing plants in Panigaglia, off the coast of Rovigo and Livorno, will be increased by 6 billion cubic meters. To this, a increase in national production of 2,2 billion cubic meters in areas such as Cassiopeia, Canale di Sicilia and Marche. Another help could come from the development of the biomethane and sources renewable. New renewable projects of up to 8 GW per year could lead to savings of 3 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year, but they need time to build and adapt the network. Finally, from the development of biomethane there is a potential for savings of approximately 2,5 cubic meters per year. Few things….!
In the meantime, Italy has also entered into new agreements and collaborations with African countries for gas and oil supplies. There are seven countries with which Italy is currently negotiating for new supplies. The list includes Algeria, Qatar, Congo, Angola, Libya, Mozambique, and Azerbaijan which would have undertaken "alone" to provide another 2,5 billion cubic meters of natural gas. Ansa on Azerbaijan reports that "a market analysis would be underway for doubling the gas transported up to 20 billion cubic meters which, if successful, would take about 4 years to build, without the need for new infrastructures".
All the proposed initiatives would make Italy "independent" from Russian gas no earlier than 2024-25.