The crisis caused by the health emergency could “explode” the army of illegal workers and illegal workers in Italy. According to Istat forecasts, in fact, by the end of this year about 3,6 million employees risk losing their jobs.
Hoping that the size of the number of expelled from the labor market is decidedly lower than that at risk, the CGIA Studies Office reports that part of these redundancies will certainly be "absorbed" by the underground economy. In fact, there will be many who, after losing their jobs in the factory or in the office, will roll up their sleeves in any way, even by resorting to illegal work.
We are talking about those people who failing to find a new job will accept an irregular job or improvise as abusive. Thanks to this choice, they will be able to earn a few hundred euros a week; paid little and in cash, all this will take place in black and without any payment of taxes, social security and insurance contributions.
In addition to the very probable expansion of illegal work, the situation of economic difficulty in which the country finds itself seems not to be felt by political forces and by public opinion in general. The forecasts, unfortunately, do not bode well. The coordinator of the Paolo Zabeo Studies Office states:
"In 2009, which is remembered as the annus horribilis of the Italian economy of the last 75 years, the GDP in Italy dropped by 5,5 percent and unemployment at the national level doubled within two years, from 6 to 12 percent. This year, however, if things go well, the decline in GDP will be 10 percent: a reduction almost double compared to that recorded 11 years ago. In light of this, it is very likely, from the moment in which the Cig introduced in the Covid period and the blocking of layoffs will disappear, that the unemployment rate will assume very worrying dimensions ".
As we said, the underground economy will take care of "cushioning" the loss of jobs. The latest available data tell us that in Italy there are over 3,3 million illegal workers and 38 percent of the total is present in the southern regions. This army of "invisible" every day goes to the fields, to the construction sites , in factories or in the homes of Italians to lend their work. Although unknown to INPS, Inail and the tax authorities, the negative economic effects that these subjects originate are "devastating". In fact, they produce 78,7 billion euros of hidden added value.
• Taxes, bureaucracy and unemployment create the conditions for the spread of undeclared work
“With too many taxes, an excessively oppressive bureaucratic and regulatory system and a lot of unemployment - points out the CGIA secretary Renato Mason - the irregular economy has found an ideal habitat to spread, especially in some areas of the country. Furthermore, those who work completely or partially illegally compete unfairly, alter the most elementary principles of economic democracy towards those who work in the open and are forced to pay taxes and contributions up to the last cent. Also for this reason it is necessary that the abusive exercise of the craft professions be opposed and prosecuted ”.
The CGIA Studies Office has estimated how the 78,7 billion euro of unlawful added value per year produced by these illegal workers are distributed at the regional level. At the territorial level, the most critical situation occurs in the South. Compared with just over 1.253.000 irregular workers (equal to 38 per cent of the national total), in the South the added value generated by the underground economy is equal to 26,8 billion euros, which corresponds to 34 per cent of the figure. national. The reality least affected by the phenomenon is the Northeast: the added value produced by the underground is equal to 14,8 billion euros.
As we have said, it is not only the treasury and INPS that lose out, but also the many productive activities and services, the craft and commercial enterprises that often suffer unfair competition from these subjects.
Undeclared workers, in fact, not being subject to social security contributions, insurance and tax contributions allow the companies where they work - or themselves, if they operate on the market as false self-employed workers - to benefit from a much lower labor cost and consequently, to charge a very low final price of the product / service. Conditions, obviously, that those who respect the provisions of the law are not able to offer.
Furthermore, the working conditions to which illegal immigrants are subjected should also not be underestimated: these people are often denied the most elementary protections provided by law on safety in the places where they operate and in these working conditions, accidents and occupational diseases. are likely to be much more frequent.
Over 3,3 million people of irregular workers, we said, mainly made up of employees who for part of the day do the second / third job, from redundant or pensioners who round up their meager income or from unemployed who are waiting to return to the market of work survive thanks to the proceeds attributable to irregular activity.
• Campania, Calabria and Sicily are the realities where undeclared work is more widespread; happy oases Aosta, Veneto and Bolzano
At a territorial level, the regions of the South are most affected by illegal activities and illegal work. According to the latest estimate drawn up by Istat and relating to 1 January 2018, in Calabria the irregularity rate is 21,6 percent (136.400 irregular), in Campania at 19,8 percent (370.900 illegal workers) , in Sicily at 19,4 per cent (296.300), in Puglia at 16,6 per cent (229.200) and in Lazio at 15,9 per cent (428.200). The national average is 13,1 percent.
The most virtuous situations, on the other hand, are recorded in the Northeast. If in Emilia Romagna the irregularity rate is 10,1 per cent (216.200 irregular), in Valle d'Aosta it is 9,3 per cent (5.700), in Veneto it is 9,1 per cent (206.400) and in the Province autonomous of Bolzano stands at 9 percent (26.400). (you see Tab. 1).
• A difficult economic situation
The effects of Covid on the Italian economy have been very heavy. Compared to the same period last year, in the first six months of this year almost all the main economic indicators of the country are preceded by a minus sign. In summary we point out:
- construction production …………. -24,2 per cent (data referring to the first 5 months);
- industry orders ………………………… -20,9 per cent;
- export of goods and services ……………………… -20,4 per cent;
- industry turnover …………………………. -19,0 per cent;
- industrial production ………………… ..- 18,3 per cent;
- turnover from services ………………………. -16,9 per cent;
- investments ………………………………… ..- 14,7 per cent;
- household consumption ………………… ..- 11,9 per cent;
- GDP …………………………………………………… -11,7 per cent;
- Retail …………………. -8,8 percent.
The data reported in Tab. 2 (updated to 4 September last) also indicate that already in 2019 the country's economic situation had been very difficult, especially with regard to the indicators relating to industry turnover (-0,3 percent), industrial production (-1 per cent) and industrial orders (-1,9 per cent).
