Occupancy alarm. By the end of the year almost 1 million fewer workers

80% of employees have an expired employment contract. By the end of the year almost 1 million fewer workers

The CGIA Studies Office reports that over 80 percent of employees in the private sector in Italy have an expired national collective bargaining agreement. In absolute terms, we are talking about approximately 12,6 million workers and white-collar workers awaiting a renewal which, following the current economic recession, is likely to slip again this year, fueling a further decline in wage dynamics.

Says the coordinator of the Research Office Paolo Zabeo:

“Given the vertical drop in household consumption and the trend of inflation which will slide towards the negative quadrant during the year, there is a need to weigh down the pay slips to give a boost to the recovery in domestic demand. Obviously, this must be done without increasing the fixed costs for companies that, in this period, do not have additional resources to deal with them. Therefore, one way forward could be to reduce the cost of labor for employees by law, so as to transfer this tax and / or contribution savings to the workers 'and employees' pockets ".

According to the CNEL, the national collective labor agreements in force in our country were, at 31 December 2019, 922. Of these, 126 are expiring this year. Since December 2012, the overall contract stock has risen 67 percent. The sector with the highest number of contracts is trade (244), followed by private bodies and institutions (114), construction (75), transport (70), agriculture (53), service companies (47), polygraphic and entertainment (43), agro-industrial (42), engineering (36), chemical (33), textile (29), credit and insurance (28) and public administration (19).

Declares the Secretary Renato Mason:

“Although in recent years the tax burden on wages has been decreasing, the size of the tax wedge in Italy still remains a strong obstacle to growth, investment development and expansion of employment. Also for these reasons, taxes and contributions on work must be reduced, starting from the component attributable to employees. With heavier payrolls, in fact, domestic demand would have positive effects. This measure would also improve the turnover of artisans, small traders and self-employed workers in general who live almost exclusively on household consumption ".

A separate discussion must be made on smart working. In these months of lockdown, this way of working has been widely used, although productivity levels do not seem to have been particularly high.

The CGIA recalls that a further step in the right direction will take place starting next July 28st. On that date, in fact, the modification and extension of the so-called "Renzi bonus" will come into force, which will bring into the pockets of employees, with a total income of up to 100 thousand euros, 80 euros per month (those who already benefited from 20 euros per month he will thus be able to get XNUMX more).

This benefit will also be extended to employees with a total income of between 28 and 40 thousand euros, with decreasing amounts as income increases until the 40 thousand euros are exceeded. For this measure, the government will field additional resources of 1,3 billion euros for the current year and 3,5 billion euros from 2021.

In employment terms, 2020 is likely to end with very worrying data. According to an estimate by the CGIA Studies Office based on data from the Bank of Italy, by December we risk a loss of almost 1 million jobs (precisely 969.000 units). If we take the units of work as the benchmark (i.e. the number of workers who are potentially employed 8 hours a day), they decrease by 2.370.000 units, causing the total stock of employees to drop below 22 million.

A never-so-low figure for 25 years now.

With an economy increasingly troubled, the bill will be paid by workers - whether they are self-employed or employees - and small businesses. According to the Bank of Italy-Iseco sample survey held in mid-March, aimed at gathering information about the effects of the pandemic on economic activity, in the first half of this year the contraction in turnover is expected to affect small businesses with less than 50 employees (-29 percent), compared to large ones, that is those with more than 500 employees (-18 percent). If, on the one hand, there are no major territorial imbalances, on the other the sectors most affected would concern services, in particular small businesses, hotels and restaurants. In the manufacturing sector, on the other hand, the most significant drop would be recorded in textiles, clothing, footwear and engineering.

 

Occupancy alarm. By the end of the year almost 1 million fewer workers