Fire Tuesday for Italy. Letter to the EU Commission on the Def and outlook of the IMF

Growth, exceptional spending, the weight of interest on the debt and anti-overdraft provisions of the deficit are the variables on which we work at the MEF, in view of the new Budget Document that Rome must send to Brussels by next Tuesday.

The program does not change, Minister Tria reiterated at the hearing, we remain with an overrun of 2,4%. Tria is decided in this regard after having met the president of the Eurogroup Centeno with whom he shared the fact that to respect the objectives agreed last year, a very heavy fiscal restriction would have to be implemented, and it would be suicide given that the economy slows down.

Tria works on a series of corrections while Bankitalia pointed out that the value of the spread over the last six months cost 1,5 billion.

Economy Minister Giovanni Tria reiterated, in hearing the budget committees of the Chamber and Senate that the maneuver does not change in substance except for some small corrective measures.

The president of the Eurogroup Centeno after meeting with Trina and Conte spoke of good intentions but to get them we must remove the doubts of partners and investors on a strategy carried out with a series of costs for the state, companies and citizens.

The slowdown in the economy could lead to a growth target of less than 1% in the new economic document, which ended up in the rain of EU criticism after the failure to validate the Parliamentary Budget Office, writes Il Sole 1,5 Ore. The Italian estimates were made in September, says Tria, and now there are other data to keep under control and which agree in indicating a further slowdown in growth that could stop short of 24%. A revision of the 1 objectives would not push the deficit beyond 2019%, because the figure is calculated on an expected GDP of + 2,4%.

Tuesday is a hot day because the IMF report card is also on the way. The inspectors of the International Monetary Fund returned to Rome on 6 November for the final phase of the mission pursuant to article IV of the statute of the body directed by Christine Lagarde.

Experts led by Head of Mission Mshi Goyal had already collected a lot of data between 12 and 16 July last. But, in consideration of the technical time required for the new government to better define its economic policy intervention, they decided to write in November the conclusions of what is traditionally the "letter" to be delivered to the Executive, in order to take account of all the implications of the budget law.

The experts sent by La Garde will want to know everything about the Def and any tweaks. But it is to be assumed that they will also want to examine Italy's medium-term budget strategy more closely, starting with the impact of the pension changes. And they will want to analyze the risks, including the potentially disruptive ones deriving from a substantial violation of EU rules, as well as understand how the government evaluates the prospects for debt sustainability.

 

 

 

Fire Tuesday for Italy. Letter to the EU Commission on the Def and outlook of the IMF

| EVIDENCE 1, ITALY |