An EU source, writes La Stampa, speaks of incalculable risks for Italy in the face of an unscrupulous economic maneuver, "by doing so, Italy is declaring war on itself", the financial markets will punish it. The only positive fact, the source argues, is the stay of Minister Tria (whose resignation was strongly opposed and avoided by the Quirinale). The real danger is that the Commission will immediately send the draft budget back to the sender, asking to rewrite it, even if this has never happened until now, the same EU source reports. But it is also true that so far no country, among those in the preventive arm of the Stability Pact, has worsened its structural deficit by more than two decimal places of GDP in a year ”. The red line drawn by the EU negotiators in the negotiations with Tria (deficit of 1,6% of GDP) was literally not calculated. There are many problems on the horizon in relations between Italy and the European Union, with the financial markets that can't wait to attack the Bel Paese.
The maneuver approved by the Council of Ministers
17-18 billion is the sum considered essential by M5S and Lega, for overcoming the Fornero law on pensions, with the introduction of a quota of 100 without too many stakes, and the take-off already next year of pensions and citizenship income for 6 millions of Italians below the poverty line. Luigi Di Maio and Matteo Salvini won it by closing the agreement on 2,4 percent, complete with a flash mob under the balcony of Palazzo Chigi.
On October 15, the maneuver to be presented will well exceed 30 billion. Also considering the start of the flat tax, the increase in funds to protect savers hit by bank cracks (1,3 billion), the hunt that started in August had a specific target: in addition to 20 billion to be added to the 12,4 billion needed to sterilize the VAT rules and the approximately 2,5 billion for the so-called non-deferrable expenses. All this without considering the expenditure for higher interest on the debt compared to the original objectives (about 4 billion) and the effects in terms of greater deficit to be sustained due to the lower growth recorded compared to that indicated in the latest public finance documents. A maneuver well beyond 30 billion, therefore, beyond the perimeter sketched in recent days by the Mef technicians: 26-28 billion also leveraging on resources already allocated with the previous budget laws.
This is the case, for example, of the 2,3 billion for the Rei (income of inclusion) in the 2019 and probably a part of the funds for the Naspi destined to fuel the income of citizenship together with the recourse to a slice of European funds to cover a part of the reorganization of the employment centers. The total cost of guaranteeing the 780 euro to about 6 millions of people under the poverty line, including pensioners, in the second half of next year has been estimated at almost 10 billion. Other 7 billion will be needed to restore retirement pensions through an 100 quota with a minimum of 62 years of age and 36 years of contribution but without any other stake. This operation should then be accompanied in times not too long by the possibility of going out of work even with 41 years and a half of age regardless of the years of contributory payments. An intervention on which the MEF would have expressed more than one perplexity both for the financial scope and for the consequences on the comparison with the EU and on the performance of the financial markets that consider the Fornero reform an irremovable pillar from our public finance structure.
The first comment from Brussels on the Defitaliano is by Pierre Moscovici, Commissioner for Monetary Affairs. And it is cold, as expected: the 2019 budget drafted by the Lega and M5s government, according to the French socialist politician, at first glance "does not respect European rules". A very tough negotiation is therefore expected in October if, as announced, the executive will launch a maneuver with a deficit-GDP ratio of 2,4 percent. "I do not want to have hot reactions", Moscovici told the French radio Bfm / Rmc, professing himself "ready for dialogue". But then the pickaxe, a message to the Italians to warn them from Luigi Di Maio and Matteo Salvini: “The European Commission has no interest in having a crisis with Italy. But at the same time we have no intention of accepting non-compliance with the budget rules. “When a country gets into debt it gets poorer. Each percentage point added to the deficit removes resources from healthcare and services for citizens ”. According to the pacts reached with the previous government, for 2019 Italy should have reduced the ratio by 0,1.