Although in 2023 the South is destined to remain the geographical division that will record the lowest GDP increase in Italy (+1 per cent approximately compared to +1,1 in the Center and +1,2 per cent approximately in the North), the same, however, will exceed that of France (+0,8 percent) and, in particular, of Germany (-0,3 percent) which is now in full technical recession. If we calculate the simple average of the growth rate of Paris and Berlin, the result stands at +0,25 per cent; this implies that our South will also grow four times more than France and Germany combined.
Although this comparison is a simple school case, we can still state with satisfaction that we are faced with the revenge of the "last ones". In short, we are no longer the last wheel of the European cart and although the slowdown in the economy underway this year is affecting all of Europe, Italy is defending itself better than the others, also thanks to the South. But there is some 'other. Even the UK will stay behind us; in the ranking of economic growth for 2023 it should stop at +0,4 percent.
A historic result that demonstrates how the Belpaese and especially the South have overcome the negative effects caused by the pandemic, the energy crisis and the inflation boom better than our main competitors. To say it is the Research Office of the CGIA.
• The reasons for the "ransom"
According to the CGIA Research Office, the "redeemment" of the South and of our country in general is attributable to at least three phenomena. The first concerns the amount of aid put in place by the latest executives to deal with the pandemic crisis and the effects of high energy prices at a national level. Between refreshments, non-repayable contributions, layoffs, economic bonuses, healthcare recruitments, etc., at least 2020 billion euros were disbursed between 2022 and 180. To these must be added another 91 billion which in 2022-2023 served to mitigate the increases in electricity and gas bills. Basically, in the last four years the State has disbursed over 270 billion euros which have largely succeeded in "anaesthetizing" the economic difficulties that have "fallen" on Italians at the beginning of the decade. The second, however, concerns the recovery of household consumption and that of investment in construction which, in the two-year period 2021-2022, mainly affected the South. Finally, the third is attributable to the sharp increase in gross fixed investments in the South which, thanks also to the resources made available by the PNRR, particularly affected the construction sector.
• Difficulties remain
Despite the positive signals just mentioned, the general situation in the South is still critical. As in the rest of the country, a sharp slowdown in the economy is underway which, due to inflation and the consequent increase in interest rates decided by the ECB, could push us towards an autumn full of pitfalls. Furthermore, let us not forget that the critical issues that have always afflicted the South are still awaiting a solution. The unemployment rate, especially among young people and women, remains very high, the level of poverty and social exclusion is worrying, the infrastructural deficit constitutes an obstacle to development and the efficiency of the Public Administration is among the worst in Europe. However, there are signs capable of giving substance to a turning point and they could consolidate if in the next three years we manage to spend well all the resources that the PNRR has allocated to the South.
• We've weathered the pandemic, high bills and inflation better than anyone else
Between 2019 (pre-pandemic year) and 2023, our country recorded a level of growth significantly higher than that recorded by our main European competitors. If by comparison GDP growth in Italy increased by 2,1 percent, in France it stood at +1,2 percent, while in Germany it was only +0,3 percent. Even the United Kingdom, although it is no longer in the EU, can count on a negligible growth differential of +0,1 per cent.
• Lombardy, Veneto and Trentino Alto Adige drive growth
Even if the distances between our regions are "millimeters", in 2023 Lombardy will be the driving force behind GDP growth with a growth forecast of +1,29 percent. Followed by Veneto with +1,24 per cent, Trentino Alto Adige with +1,23 per cent, Lazio with +1,18 per cent and Piedmont-Valle d'Aosta with +1,17 per cent. hundred. Campania closes the ranking with +0,86 percent, Molise with +0,84 percent and, finally, Basilicata with +0,82 percent. The regions that have not yet recovered from the collapse in GDP that occurred in 2020 (the year of the "outbreak" of the pandemic) are Calabria with a negative differential of 2019 compared to 0,25, Molise of 0,83, Valle d'Aosta of 0,88, Liguria of 2,02 and, in particular, Tuscany which has yet to "reconquer" as much as 3,22 points of GDP.
• Ascoli, Milan, Venice and Trapani are the most virtuous provinces
At the provincial level, however, Ascoli Piceno leads the 2023 growth ranking with an increase in added value compared to last year of 2,10 percent. Milan follows with +1,86 percent, Venice and Trapani both with +1,85 percent, Sondrio with +1,81 percent and Verona with +1,76 percent. At the rear, however, we see Macerata in third from last place with +0,25 per cent, Vibo Valentia in the penultimate with +0,07 per cent and, finally, Gorizia with +0,04 per cent.