Trade and construction are the most “fragile” sectors. Latina, Ragusa, Trapani and Syracuse are the provinces already in difficulty
Even if the number of bankruptcies recorded in the last two years is not particularly high, the risk that, from next autumn, it will increase again at a worrying extent is quite probable. Between the deterioration of the general economic situation - attributable to the high energy / fuel costs and the surge in inflation - the impossibility of selling the credits acquired with the 110 per cent superbonus - which amount to about 4 billion euros - and the non-payments of the Public Administration (PA) towards its suppliers - which according to Eurostat are at least 55,6 billion euros - many commercial and productive activities risk having to take the books to court. With an all-Italian specificity; for many of these companies the definitive closure will not be caused by the impossibility of paying their debts, but by bad credits, or rather due to insolvencies largely attributable to the defaults of our PA. To say it is the Studies Office of the CGIA.
The long wave is coming
What are the reasons why the craftsmen from Mestre hypothesize that bankruptcies could suffer a sharp increase when they return from holidays? If we look at the historical series of the last 10 years, the maximum peak of "closures" was reached in the two-year period 2014-2015, or 1,5 / 2 years after the sovereign debt crisis that hit our country heavily. Therefore, as in all recessions, the effects become explicit later. So that, after the difficulties caused by Covid in the two-year period 2020-2021 and following the negative effects attributable to the war in Ukraine that broke out towards the end of February, starting from next autumn the number of bankruptcies could return to grow and suffer a sharp surge in the course of 2023.
Downward trend since 2014
In the last 10 years, however, the maximum number of bankruptcies was recorded in 2014 (14.735 cases). After that, there was a progressive reduction that stopped in 2020 (7.160 cases). This figure was certainly conditioned by the particularity of that year: due to the lockdown, in fact, we remember that even the bankruptcy courts were closed for many months, negatively affecting the productivity of the offices, also in terms of sentences. Finally, in 2021, the figure began to rise and at the end of the year it stood at 8.498 units.
The critical issues that lead to bankruptcy: super bonuses and non-payment of the PA
Faced with uncertain rules that have been negatively affecting the application of the 110 percent super bonus for months, financial intermediaries (banks, financial institutions, etc.) have practically blocked credit purchases. Currently there are over 5 billion euros of credits awaiting acceptance; of these, about 4 refer to first sales or discounts on the invoice. Faced with this situation, companies in the home sector (builders, painters, system installers, carpenters, etc.) are no longer able to make discounts on the invoice. And with tax credits already acquired and not transferable, which in many cases amount to hundreds of thousands of euros per single company, many companies are in liquidity crisis and on the verge of suspending construction sites, being no longer able to pay suppliers. . But the most problematic situation remains the stock of current account trade payables held by our Public Administration (PA) which shamefully continues to increase (Eurostat, “Note on stock of liabilities of trade credits and advances” - 23 April 2022). In fact, in 2021, non-payments amounted to 55,6 billion euros. This means that the companies that work for the PA have not yet collected a frightening figure which is equal to 3,1 per cent of the national GDP; finally, we point out that no other country in the EU records such a high incidence.
The sectors most at risk are trade and construction: a critical situation in Latina, Ragusa, Trapani and Syracuse
Compared to the same period last year, the number of bankruptcies is also decreasing in the first five months of this year (-20,6 per cent). In absolute terms, 3.133 entrepreneurs took the books to court (-815 compared to the same time frame in 2021). The sectors most at risk are commerce and construction which, in this first part of the year, recorded respectively 722 and 577 "closures".
Also in this first part of 2022, at the regional level only Liguria saw an increase in the number of bankruptcies; all the others, on the other hand, are in sharp decline.
Finally, at the provincial level, the situation of Verbano-Cusio-Ossola, Latina, Ragusa, Trapani and Syracuse is worrying.
