Tax increase In the 2019 we risk that the bar touches the 43%

The downward revision of growth has dramatically highlighted not only the ongoing slowdown of our economy and the difficulty of keeping our public finances in order, but also a very probable increase in the tax burden which, according to the CGIA Studies Office, in 2019 it risks close to 43 per cent.

"Last December - says the coordinator of the Studies Office Paolo Zabeo - the Ministry of Economy had forecast a growth of 1 per cent of GDP which would have contributed to slightly increase the tax burden in 2019, exactly to 42,3 percent. Now, with a GDP that will almost certainly slightly exceed zero, the tax burden is destined to increase more consistently than forecast. At this moment, however, it is still premature to establish its scope: to have greater knowledge we will have to wait for the data from the quarterly cash report. The bar, however, is set to rise and it is very likely that it will be just below the 43 percent threshold ”.

No new tax

Let me be clear: this does not mean that families and businesses will pay more taxes. The fiscal pressure, in fact, is given by the ratio between the tax revenue and the contributory income on GDP. If the denominator is significantly lowered it is almost certain that the result of the report is destined to increase significantly.

“With a tax burden that has risen steadily in recent decades without this having led to an increase in the services offered to families and companies - reports the CGIA Secretary Renato Mason - consumption and investments have been sacrificed. Furthermore, it has become increasingly difficult to do business, create jobs and redistribute wealth. For small and very small businesses, in particular, the decline in household consumption has created many financial problems, forcing many VAT numbers to permanently close the business ”.

Attention to the possible increase in bank fees

The only economic entities that will suffer a marked increase in the tax burden will be banks, insurance companies and large companies. If for the first two subjects the increase in tax in 2019 will be equal to 1,8 billion euros, for the second ones the greater revenue will weigh for 2,5 billion euros.

“It cannot be ruled out - concludes Zabeo - that credit institutions pass on the higher costs caused by the tax increase to their customers. Such as ? Adjusting up the bank commissions which, I recall, now account for about 40 percent of the net revenues of banks. Basically, it will be necessary to be very careful so that the costs of current accounts, ATM / credit card services, collection / payment operations, placement of securities and asset management do not suffer unjustified increases ".

With less revenue we risk a corrective maneuver

To aggravate the situation, the probable lack of revenue of some items introduced in the latest budget law should also be pointed out, which would distance us from the deficit and debt objectives taken with Brussels. A deviation that could lead the European Union to impose a corrective action on us by the end of the summer. We recall, in fact, that following the sentence of the Constitutional Court, there is a risk of missing 4 billion in revenue from the scrapping of tax bills. From the privatization of state assets, the public coffers should collect 18 billion euros. A goal that seems overestimated to date. Not to mention that with the introduction of electronic invoicing, the tax authorities aim to collect an additional 2 billion euro. An amount that seems difficult to reach to most.

In the last 40 years the tax burden has increased by 11 points. Tax boom with the Monti government

Finally, the CGIA Studies Office has reconstructed the historical series of the tax burden in Italy. Over the past 40 years, the tax burden in Italy has risen by almost 11 percentage points. If in 1980 it was 31,4 percent, this year it should be at least 42,3 percent. In this period of time, the peak was reached in 2012-2013, when in both years the withdrawal reached the threshold of 43,6 per cent (see Graph 1 and Tab. 1). Level reached following the tightening of taxation imposed by the Monti government which reintroduced the tax on the first home, increased INPS contributions on self-employed workers, tightened the tax levy on instrumental properties, revised up the car tax, etc. .

 

Tax increase In the 2019 we risk that the bar touches the 43%

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