Ukrainian military intelligence says that Russia is ready to order the mobilization of as many as 500.000 conscripts in January, in addition to the 300.000 already called up last October, thus sending a signal: Putin has no intention of ending the war.
Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine's military intelligence, told The Guardian that Russian conscripts will be deployed for a massive spring offensive in the east and south of the country. Russia, at the moment, has denied wanting more conscripts because only half of October's conscripts have been sent to the front. In essence, the partial mobilization of last September is still in force and there is still no talk of general mobilization in the country in the general staffs in Moscow.
However, the story reported by the Ukrainian intelligence of a new mobilization in Russia has sparked localized protests throughout Russia. If the Ukrainian estimate turns out to be correct, Russia will have nearly doubled its pre-war strength in just a few months.
Ukraine's military intelligence said 280.000 Russian ground troops are currently deployed. Skibitsky (Ukrainian deputy intelligence chief ed) said that Russia will take about two months to put together military formations and any success on the battlefield will depend on the equipment and training received.
"If Russia loses this time Putin will collapse”said Skibitsky, describing the next six to eight months as the modern tsar's last chance to impose his strategy. Ukraine expects the mobilization to be announced on January 15, after Russia's winter holidays.
Igor Strelkov, a Russian ultranationalist commentator and former intelligence officer, said: “There will be a second wave of mobilisation. We will be forced to carry on the second, and possibly the third wave. To win in Ukraine, we will have to recall at least another half million soldiers”.
Skibitsky explained why they expect a mobilization of half a million Russians: “The new mobilization will take place at the end of February, on the anniversary of the start of the war. We expect them to conduct offensives in Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, as well as on Zaporizhzhia. This is the number of men they will need for such a task.".
In December, the Ukrainian defense minister, Oleksiy Reznikov, and the army commander, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, they also said that Russia would carry out a new attack from Belarus, where it would be amassing vehicles and troops. According to Skibitsky, Russia has only one division - about 15.000 strong - in Belarus. Last February it had 45.000 and failed to take Kiev, even though Ukraine was unprepared. Now, in northern Ukraine the defensive positions are strong and Ukraine is ready, Skibitsky said.