Fornero Law, Citizenship Income and Flat Tax, the accounts do not return. The knots of the government yellow-green

Fornero law, income of citizenship and flat tax, are the three social emergencies to which the government immediately wants to put their hands. Vice Premier Luigi Di Maio met the president of INPS Tito Boeri to try to make ends meet and evaluate together the impact that the discussion of the three issues would have on public finances. Then set off the recent controversy with the INPS, we start working on the next budget law, trying to anticipate some measures already at the end of summer. Emergencies that still have to deal with the crux of resources, to date not yet identified and the constraints of public finance. Sforare the 3% of the deficit, it appears a found from electoral campaign that hardly can be accepted in the community.

Let us therefore make some practical assessments to weigh the impact of the treatment of the three social emergencies. At least 20 billion euros are needed immediately to defuse the VAT increase, 12,4 billion in 2019 (plus interest) and 19,5 billion in 2020.

As regards the CBI the government wants to strengthen the employment centers, on which Di Maio has already initiated discussions with the Regions. The measure, which in the government contract is indicated in aid of 780 euros per month, is in fact linked to reintegration into the world of work. According to the most recent INPS estimate, building it would cost around 35 billion euros when fully operational. Boeri proposed, in this regard, to widen the inclusion income. Measure for which 2 billion have already been allocated in 2018, increased in the Poverty Fund by another 700 million in 2019 and 900 million from 2020. Rei which today affects over one million people (311 thousand families) has an average monthly amount of about 308 euros. To reach the 5 million absolute poor, another 6,2 billion would be needed, as indicated by INPS in the latest annual report.

for pensions the government aims to cut the gold pensions, over 4 thousand euros net monthly in the part not covered by the contributions paid. And there is the will to increase the minimum pensions, those above 500 euros per month. There cancellation of the Fornero lawAccording to various calculations, it would cost only the first year 14 billion, up to 20 billion. Among the measures that in the meantime could become part of the pension package is the so-called 'share 100'- sum between age and contributions paid. One of the hypotheses would be to set the minimum age at 64 and at 36 the years of contributions. The operation would have a variable cost depending on the options that according to INPS simulations, the restoration of the retirement pension with 41 years of contributions and 'quota 100' with 64 years of minimum age in 2019 would cost 11,6 billion, for 596 thousand additional pensions at the end of the year. Instead, giving up 41 years, the first year would spend 4,6 billion.

Another very sensitive topic that has attracted the utmost attention from tax payers is the flat tax. Two fixed rates, 15% for companies and 20% for families. Too bad that the first effects will begin only with the next budget law to settle in the next. Probably immediately after the summer will benefit only VAT vat that will be taxed with a flat rate to 15%.

It is an arduous undertaking that will put the yellow-green government to the test. The resource node is primary. The only solution is to succeed in convincing the European partners to breach the 3% deficit threshold. It will be hard to make Europe digest the Italian need, especially after the new policy on migrants. Apparently we are in a dead end where only an "absolute novelty" could give a turning point, like a serious policy of contrasting the submerged in Italy it reaches over 300 billion euros.

 

Fornero Law, Citizenship Income and Flat Tax, the accounts do not return. The knots of the government yellow-green

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