Fornero law, income of citizenship and flat tax, are the three social emergencies to which the government immediately wants to put their hands. Vice Premier Luigi Di Maio met the president of INPS Tito Boeri to try to make ends meet and evaluate together the impact that the discussion of the three issues would have on public finances. Then set off the recent controversy with the INPS, we start working on the next budget law, trying to anticipate some measures already at the end of summer. Emergencies that still have to deal with the crux of resources, to date not yet identified and the constraints of public finance. Sforare the 3% of the deficit, it appears a found from electoral campaign that hardly can be accepted in the community.
Let us then make some practical evaluations to weigh the impact of the treatment of the three social emergencies. At least 20 billions of euros are needed to defuse the VAT increase, 12,4 billions in 2019 (plus interest) and 19,5 billions in 2020.
As regards the CBI the government wants to strengthen the employment centers, on which Di Maio has already started the comparison with the Regions. The measure, which in the government contract is indicated in an aid equal to 780 euro per month, is in fact linked to the reintegration into the world of work. According to the most recent INPS estimate, achieving it would cost around 35 billion euros. In this regard, Boeri has proposed to widen the inclusion income. Measure for which 2 billion have already been allocated in the 2018, increased in the Poverty Fund of other 700 million in the 2019 and 900 millions from the 2020.Il Rei which today affects over one million people (311 thousand families) has an average monthly amount of about 308 euro. To reach the 5 million of absolute poor, they would need, as indicated by the INPS in the last annual report, other 6,2 billion.
for pensions the government aims to cut gold pensions, higher than the net monthly 4 thousand euro in the part not covered by the contributions paid. And there is the desire to increase minimum pensions, those above the monthly Euro 500. There cancellation of the Fornero law, according to various calculations, would cost only the first year 14 billion, up to 20 billion. Among the measures that could be part of the social security package is the so-called 'share 100'- sum between age and paid contributions. One hypothesis would be to set the minimum age at 64 years and 36 for the years of contributions. The transaction would have a variable cost depending on the options that according to INPS simulations, the restoration of the retirement pension with 41 years of contributions and '100 quota' with 64 years of minimum age in 2019 would cost 11,6 billion, for 596 thousand additional pensions at the end of the year. By giving up the 41 years instead, 4,6 billions would be spent the first year.
Another very sensitive topic that has attracted the utmost attention from tax payers is the flat tax. Two fixed rates, 15% for companies and 20% for families. Too bad that the first effects will begin only with the next budget law to settle in the next. Probably immediately after the summer will benefit only VAT vat that will be taxed with a flat rate to 15%.
It is a difficult undertaking that will put a strain on the estate of the yellow-green government. The resource node is primary. The only solution is to be able to convince European partners to go over the 3% deficit threshold. It will be hard for Europe to digest the Italian need, especially after the new policy on migrants. Apparently we are in a blind alley where only an "absolute novelty" could give a turning point, as a serious policy to contrast the submerged that, as known, in Italy it reaches over 300 billion euros.