Inflation "eats" our savings: a sting of at least 92 billion euros. The accounts, made by the CGIA Studies Office, start from the hypothesis that Italian families have kept the same savings in their credit institution as they had at the beginning of the year. Therefore, due to the estimated inflation growth for 2022 to 8 percent - in this elaboration an inflation of 8% was applied, an intermediate value between the growth of the NIC index recorded by Istat in the first nine months of 2022 (+ 7%) and the inflation recorded in September 2022 ( which touches + 9%) -, the real economic dimension of the bank deposit has undergone a drastic curtailment. To pay the heaviest bill are the families residing in the big cities, where the expensive life is felt most. Of course, a very small part of this loss of purchasing power will surely be compensated by the increase in interest on deposits. Following the increase in rates decided by the ECB in recent months, in fact, the banks, in the second half of the year, are paying positive interest to their account holders. However, the bill to "pay" is very heavy and affects poorer families more.
In Rome, Milan, Turin and Naples the most penalized families
At a territorial level, the most penalized provinces are the most populated and tend to also have the highest levels of wealth: in Rome, inflation "erodes" 7,42 billion euros of family savings, in Milan 7,39, to Turin 3,85, Naples 3,33, Brescia 2,24 and Bologna 1,97. Finally, among the least exposed, we see the province of Enna with 156 million euros, Isernia with 153 and Crotone with 123.
The state coffers, on the other hand, "smile"
Of course, due to the increase in inflation, the central state and its peripheral joints will also experience a surge in terms of expenditure. In the meantime, however, the increase in revenue collected was very important. In the first 8 months of 2022 compared to the same period last year, tax revenues increased by 40,69 billion euros. This positive score can be traced back to three factors: the effects of the "Relaunch decree" and the "August decree", - which between 2020 and 2021 had arranged for extensions, suspensions, etc. - and, in particular, the increases in consumer prices that have pushed up the VAT revenue (Minister of Economy and Finance, Press Office, Press Release n. 171, Rome, 05 October 2022).
Stagflation arrives
The danger that our economy is sliding towards stagflation is very high. It is an economic situation that could also occur in Italy in a relatively short time. With the difficulties linked to the pandemic, the effects of the war in Ukraine, the increase in the prices of raw materials and energy products, we risk, in the medium term, seeing economic growth slide towards zero, with inflation that, instead, could easily exceed the two digits.
We need to cut spending and taxes
Countering stagflation, reports the CGIA Studies Office, is a very complex operation. To mitigate the inflationary pressure, experts argue that central banks should contain expansionary measures and raise interest rates, an operation that would allow a decrease in the money supply in circulation. It is evident that having a debt / GDP ratio among the highest in the world, with the increase in interest rates Italy would record a marked increase in the cost of public debt. A problem that could undermine our financial stability. Finally, it would be necessary to intervene simultaneously on at least three other fronts: firstly, through the drastic reduction of current expenditure and, secondly, with the cut in the tax burden, the only effective tools capable of stimulating consumption and for this food route. also the aggregate demand for goods and services. These latter operations are not easy to apply to an important extent, at least until the European Stability Pact is “reviewed”. Last but not least, we will absolutely have to sterilize the rises in electricity and gas bills which are the cause of this sharp increase in inflation recorded in the last year.