The United States and NATO will have to provide Farsi language analysts and teach Farsi to Ukrainian intelligence analysts. This will allow Ukrainian intelligence analysts to better identify Iranian military advisors present in Crimea and possibly capture them.
(by Massimiliano D'Elia) Tehran sent its consultants from Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Crimea to train Russians to fly Iranian-made drones. Russia has already employed Iranian suicide drones, the shahed-136, shahed-129 e Mohajer-6, against energy installations and civil buildings in Kiev.
Iran will most likely continue to send its military to the Crimea to strengthen its own partnerships strategic with Russia. A bond that is of great concern to the EU, NATO and Israel. In the face of the rubber band war on the ground where it takes and loses positions within a few days, it will use drones more and more with a triple advantage: they are more lethal, they cost less than artillery or air strikes, and not they lose human lives.
Iranian instructors, at this stage of the war, are helping the Russians improve their drone targeting skills to cause more damage and casualties. The Russian army intends, according to the site - Counterterrorism Group - CTG, to destroy the energy infrastructure of Kiev to play the card of winter, leaving the Ukrainian population in the cold. The Ukrainian energy industry, under normal conditions, also supplies electricity to the EU but has stopped exporting electricity since last October due to Russian missile attacks.
Many analysts think that Iran could propose itself, in the near future, as an independent observer in the war-torn territories between Russia and Ukraine in exchange for Moscow's military and diplomatic support with Washington (ongoing talks on nuclear deals)
Tehran and Moscow have over the years become strategic partners, whose relations have strengthened thanks to their joint military actions in support of the president's regime Bashar al-Assad in Syria and ai joint free trade agreements in the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Amid high oil prices and sanctions, Iran continues to offer support to Russia, demonstrating cooperation against Western countries.
Pros and cons of the Iranian intervention in Ukraine
Iranian influence in Ukraine is likely to lead to the involvement of nations like Israel in the conflict. Iran's increased involvement in Ukraine could work in favor (review Moscow's discriminatory policies) of Muslim minorities deprived of civil rights in Russia, who suffer religious and ethnic discrimination by members of the Russian armed forces.
Russia will strengthen its territorial control over the Kherson, Kharkiv, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions by using Iranian drones to slow down the advance of Ukrainian troops, interrupting the supply chain at the same time. For this reason, Iranian military experts will arrive in other Russian-controlled Ukrainian regions to provide tactical support to the Russian military. In this direct aid on the ground, however, there is a risk that the Iranian military could be captured and used as political leverage in Washington's negotiations with Iran.. Faced with the growing threat of the Russia-Iran alliance, NATO member states will most likely have to provide additional logistical and diplomatic support to Ukraine.
According to experts, Iranian involvement will increase the intensity of the war by delaying the process of peace negotiations. The continued deployment of Iranian military advisers who provide Russia with operational information will encourage Russia to use drones in a systematic and massive way thanks to the unlimited line of credit agreed with the Iranian defense industries.
Iranian influence in Ukraine could lead Israel to break its neutrality, Tel Aviv could provide Ukraine with its state-of-the-art drone detection systems. The EU and the United States will also be forced to send anti-hydron weapons to the Ukrainian government to counter the attacks of the deadly Iranian drones.
The countermoves of the West
EUCOM, W / T and CENTCOM recommend the US and NATO to continue providing anti-hydron systems to the Ukrainian army as a defensive measure. Drone monitoring and contrast measures will have to be implemented to protect energy infrastructures. Drone monitoring equipment includes radio frequency analyzers, acoustic, optical and radar sensors. Countermeasures to combat drones will have to include radio frequency jammers, GPS spoofers, and high-power microwave devices. The Ukrainian army will need to disguise key military assets, such as ammunition depots and command centers, which Russia will seek to target through Iranian UAVs.