Dragons with variable and transversal majority in Parliament

(by Francesco Matera) President Mattarella left Mario Draghi carte blanche on the choice of ministers and the method to be used for the formation of the new government. Mario Draghi despite not being provided for by the Constitution today begins consultations with the various political forces. A way to hear, without giving in to blackmail, the requests of those who will then have to support him in the two houses of Parliament. Draghi will therefore dictate his line, anchoring it to the three main emergencies in the country: pandemic, economy and social question. What is certain is that after the earthquake triggered by Matteo Renzi there are still some aftershocks within the various parties as well as in the two major coalitions. The Democratic Party does not want to disperse the government experience gained with M5S and Leu, also because there are important administrative elections at the gates, one of all the choice of the new mayor of Rome. In the center-right the various souls flaunt unity and a common line that is still not clear today. It is really difficult to invoke the elections in the face of a personality like Mario Draghi, invoked by Silvio Berlusconi in first person and by the same number two of the League, Giancarlo Giorgetti who has always been in contact with the former governor of the ECB for unsuspected times; Lombardy and Triveneto, the electoral base of the Lega, do not want to listen to alternative solutions to Draghi certain of the Italian economic turnaround with the guidance of an expert hand, universally recognized and appreciated. Matteo Salvini is therefore at a crossroads because Giorgia Meloni, who is growing in the polls day by day, wants elections without ifs and withouts, proposing abstention in Parliament, a line that however would not lead to any government office, or no say in the decisions on the Italian Recovery Plan. An intermediate solution must be found in order not to split the center-right. It is no coincidence that Salvini started saying yesterday, we will support Draghi but not until 2023 with elections immediately after securing the country and before the appointment of the new President of the Republic. A solution, the latter, which could also be assimilated by the intransigent line of the Brothers of Italy.

On the other hand, in front of the support for Draghi already announced by Pd and IV, at the moment Leu is crushing while in the Movement, after internal battles with press releases and social messages, most likely the line to follow will be asked of their oracle made at home, the Rousseau platform.

If all goes well Mario Draghi could have a broad and transversal "variable" majority in Parliament which will allow him to govern with important margins of tranquility.

The appointments of ministers, towards the "Dream Team"

Another game is important, those of the appointments of its ministers. The former president of the ECB will most likely reach out for a mixed system, top-level politicians and technicians set up to offer Mattarella a kind of "Dream Team".

The hypotheses in the field. Fabio Panetta, a member of the ECB board, enjoys great esteem on the part of Draghi but it is difficult for him to leave Brussels, Belloni to Foreign Affairs, Giovannini al Lavoro and a position in Cottarelli that could call him both to head an economic ministry and to have a key role in the management of the Recovery plan and European funds.

Roberto Gualtieri, highly esteemed by Draghi, could remain at the Mef ready to manage the 209 billion of the Recovery Fund destined for Italy.

Marta Cartabia, who is very close to the heart of the head of state, could end up in justice, to implement a radical reform. Luciana Lamorgese, one of the few technicians of the resigning government, could continue to lead the Interior. Both Roberto Speranza and Francesco Boccia could continue to govern both Health and relations with the Regions. Both Dario Franceschini and Lorenzo Guerini also remain in contention. In front of the ministers of the Democratic Party, some big names from the M5S and IV must also find a place. And those of the center-right? I think there will still be some good ones. Giuseppe Conte in the meantime has remained at Palazzo Chigi to run the state machinery in the current needs.

Dragons with variable and transversal majority in Parliament

| EVIDENCE 1, ITALY |