Without approving any measures promised in this electoral campaign, the new government will still have to find at least 31 billion euros by 40 December; of which 5 billion to extend the effects against expensive energy introduced last week with the Aiuti ter decree and another 35 billion to allow, through the next budget law, that some measures introduced by the Draghi government do not lapse with the start of the new year. In other words, the CGIA Studies Office points out, the new executive that "will come out" from the polls already has a mortgage of 40 billion euros and it will be almost impossible to keep, at least in the first 100 days, the electoral promises announced in the last two months; such as, for example, the drastic reduction of taxes, the pension reform, the cutting of the tax wedge, etc. Not to mention that if the new tenant of Palazzo Chigi wants to intervene with further measures to mitigate the expensive energy, another 35 billion euros will be needed, as the craftsmen from Mestre have long pointed out, to reduce by at least half the price increases that have "fallen" this year on households and businesses.
• The budget law 2023
By September 27, the outgoing government will submit the update note to the economic and finance document (Nadef), while it will be up to the new executive to draw up the budget planning document (Dpb) by October 15 and the draft budget by October 20. budget law. Deadlines, the latter two, which almost certainly cannot be met, given that the first session of the new Chambers was set for 13 October. Even approving the 2023 budget in time will not be easy: by law the definitive vote must take place by 31 December, otherwise the provisional exercise will start. Therefore, the time available is very tight and it will not be easy to find all the resources to confirm many measures introduced by the Draghi government for the coming year as well. They are:
- almost 15 billion euros to renew in the first quarter the measures against high energy costs envisaged by the Aid ter decree;
- at least € 8,5 billion to index pensions;
- at least 5 billion for the renewal of the public employment contract;
- 4,5 billion euros for the contribution discount of 2 per cent for employees with income up to 35 thousand euros;
- 2 billion euros of non-deferrable expenses.
• Stagflation is on its way
The danger that the economy of our country is slowly sliding towards stagflation is very high. This phenomenon, unknown to the most unknown, rarely occurs, or rather when economic growth tending to zero, or even negative, is accompanied by very high inflation which causes the unemployment rate to increase to a very worrying extent. A scenario that could also occur next year in Italy, as it already happened in the second half of the 70s of the last century. The effects of the war in Ukraine, the increase in the prices of raw materials and energy products risk, in the medium term, to push the economy towards zero growth, with inflation that would start to hit double digits.
• Taxes and current spending need to be cut
Countering stagflation is an extremely complex operation. To reverse the inflationary push, experts argue that central banks should contain expansionary measures and raise interest rates, an operation already underway that will cause a decrease in the money supply in circulation. It is evident that having a debt / GDP ratio among the highest in the world, with the increase in interest rates Italy would record a marked increase in the cost of public debt. Furthermore, it would be necessary to intervene simultaneously on at least two other fronts: firstly, through the drastic reduction of current expenditure and, secondly, with the cut in the tax burden, the only effective tools capable of stimulating consumption and for this food route also the aggregate demand for goods and services. These latter operations are not easy to apply to an important extent, at least until the European Stability Pact is “reviewed”.
