Naval battle between Russia and Ukraine, the battle moves to the sea

(Admiral Giuseppe De Giorgi ) At the same time that European leaders returned home after the Brexit summit in Brussels, while trying to reach the Ukrainian port of Mariupol, three Ukrainian warships were hit and kidnapped by Russian armed forces in the Sea of ​​Azov on the Kerch Strait (northern part of the Black Sea for accuracy). The twenty-three Ukrainian sailors on board were taken into custody by Russian forces and sentenced to two months in jail by a Crimean court.

A serious incident that has abruptly brought international attention back to the volatility of the situation in Ukraine: unlike other "suspended conflicts" present in the post-Soviet space, the Ukrainian conflict remains very hot today. The relations between the two countries are, in fact, particularly worsened following the invasion and the annexation of Crimea by Russia in the 2014, and after the war in the eastern regions between the Ukrainian army and the separatist militias Russian soldiers, militarily supported by Russia. Therefore, both countries claim to have been attacked. It is not yet clear what happened between the ships of the two countries, but the Kerch Strait has long been disputed between Russia and Ukraine, especially after the announcement of the creation of a new naval base in the area between Crimea and Russia. Here we refer to a stretch of sea that, formally according to the bilateral treaty of 2003, should be jointly controlled by the two countries, but on which in fact Russia exerts a strong control on the naval traffic it deters the Ukrainian ships from utilizing the ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk, which overlook the sea of ​​Azov. At the beginning of this month the European Union also intervened on the issue: some analysts deem the Russian actions "an economic blockade" against Ukraine.

What we know derives from the reports made by the two countries, without obviously being able to know who is on the side of the truth and who is not. Ukraine claims that its ships attacked on Sunday regularly requested permission to cross the strait; Russia denies this circumstance and instead claims that they entered a Russian sea area without authorization. Poroshenko further stated that "Ukraine is facing the threat of a full-scale war with the Russian Federation". However, several analysts said they were very skeptical about the real possibility that Russia wants to attack Ukraine, mainly because at this moment there does not seem to be a clear military objective that can be reached. Putin, on the other hand, tends to clarify, through the media, the legitimacy of Russia's military response, since the Ukrainians have "trespassed" into its territorial waters, adding, finally, that the incident was a provocation thought by Poroshenko in view of the presidential elections scheduled for March 2019. Idea also proposed by some internal opponents of the Ukrainian President in a moment of evident political difficulty and rather low popularity ratings (recent polls would give the outgoing President out of the game for the next political elections). Moscow also released a video in which three of the Ukrainian sailors who were aboard the Kiev ships, seized by Russian naval forces in the Kerch Strait, admit trespassing into Russian territorial waters. In particular, one official, Volodymyr Lisovyi, says he is aware that Ukraine's move was a "provocation". A confession which, according to the chief of staff of the Ukrainian Navy, was obtained with threats and violence from the Russian side and therefore is not credible. The head of the Ukrainian secret services, Sbu, Vasyl Hrytsak, then confirmed that his agents were aboard the ships, as the Russians denounced, but that it was a "routine counter-espionage mission", missions that they are also regularly conducted by Russian ships.

The escalation of tensions between Ukraine and Russia thus reaches a new peak with still uncertain consequences. Meanwhile, in response to the Russian showdown on November 25, Ukrainian President Poroshenko has promulgated martial law in the areas bordering Russia for the next 30 days. The imposition of such a measure could lead to the restriction of press freedom and control of the mass media by the government, as well as a ban on public assemblies, even peaceful protests and mass events. A move that seems extraordinary and questionable, also given the approaching elections that next March will proclaim the future Ukrainian president. Meanwhile, on Twitter, Poroshenko also announces that he has banned all Russian men between 16 and 60 years of age from entering the country, in order to prevent Russians from forming detachments of "private armies" that respond to the Russian armed forces. A further step that thus risks further aggravating the current tense situation.

"NATO stands with Ukraine - reads a statement from the North Atlantic Council - NATO members call on Russia to guarantee unhindered access to Ukrainian ports and allow freedom of navigation. There is no justification for Russia's use of military force against Ukrainian ships and naval personnel. […] NATO is with Ukraine and will continue to provide political and practical support to the country within the framework of our existing cooperation. NATO will continue to monitor the situation ". After three days of debate, the EU nonetheless made a statement expressing "the greatest concern about the dangerous increase in tensions" and that defined the use of force by "unacceptable" Russia. The European Union also recalled "Does not recognize the illegal annexation of the Crimean peninsula to Russia": the articulation of all recent conflicts between Moscow and the international community. In Brussels, meanwhile, prudence prevails because there are very different positions on the response to be given to "Russian aggression". Leading the group of countries that would immediately undergo new anti-Putin sanctions Austria, the Baltic countries, the Netherlands and Poland. The British government has also defined the Russian one as an "act of aggression that provides new evidence of the destabilizing behavior of Russia in the region and the persistent violation, for its part, of the territorial integrity of Ukraine". Meanwhile, Donald Trump has canceled his scheduled meeting in Buenos Aires during the G20 with Russian President Putin waiting for the situation to be resolved. A missed opportunity to discuss serious international and bilateral problems has thus been postponed indefinitely.

The incident must be seen in a complex political context, both internationally and internally in Ukraine. And so, while the international community calls for quieting and avoiding clashes, the fear of a growing confrontation between Russia and Ukraine in the coming months is unfortunately a plausible scenario. The pro-Russian separatists have Russian heavy weapons, while Ukraine has received aid from the West. The area is vital for the Ukrainian economy: after the loss of Crimea steel, grain and other products pass through that stretch of sea, to and from the ports of Bryansk and Mariupol. Therefore, now, the security of the region and beyond is at risk.

 

Naval battle between Russia and Ukraine, the battle moves to the sea

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