(by Massimiliano D'Elia) The war in Ukraine is taking a direction that does not help Vladimir Putin both internally and abroad. The defeat of the Russian forces in the Kharkiv region does not portend a rapid end to the conflict. The Russian army was unable to overwhelm the Ukrainian one, which with the help of Western resources and intelligence managed to make the invader retreat about 8000 square meters.
Inside, Putin's apparatus begins to creak: it is difficult to explain the 50000 soldiers who died from a narrated "special military operation". Days ago a video went viral, "freedom is offered to prison inmates in exchange for military employment in Ukraine ”. The proposal does not seem to have thrilled the inmates who prefer to stay in cells rather than die in the war.
Then there is the question of the indestructible unity shown by the West, all agreeing to impose sanctions even at the expense of dangerous contractions of their economies. Putin's calculations, even in this case, have turned out to be wrong even if there is still the whole winter to pass, without the usual continuity of the flow of Russian gas in favor of Europe.
Putin, in his pre-invasion planning, relied heavily on the support of the Asian countries, China (in primis). Many emerging markets have refrained from publicly criticizing the Russian invasion while China and India have covertly aided the modern-day Tsar by stepping up Russian oil purchases.
Shortly before launching the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian president met Xi Jinping in Beijing who, at the time, declared a "partnership without limits" with Russia. Yet, in the first meeting of the two after the invasion, Putin this week in Sammarkand, at the 39th summit of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization), acknowledged the Chinese leader's concerns about the "Ukrainian crisis". Such comments, at the summit of former Soviet Uzbekistan, appeared there first public admission of differences with Beijing on the conflict. Prior to the summit, President Xi had also taken the unusual step of offering support to the President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in defending the sovereignty and integrity of his country in the event of "interference by any force". Since the most likely source of interference would be Moscow - northern Kazakhstan has a large Russian population - the words have taken on a veiled warning to Putin.
Indian too Narendra Modi publicly criticized, for the first time, the invasion of Ukraine, telling the Russian leader that now "it is not the era of a war ”. "There are food, climate, energy needs, industrial transitions to be made, today we must take the opportunity to talk about how to carry out a peace pact, rather than face the consequences of the devastation ". "My dear friend - Putin replied - I know your worries about the war in Ukraine, we all want to end this war, but the Ukrainians prevent us from stopping the fighting".
Modi and Xi agreed on the need to work together to improve climate objectives, compatibly with the maintenance of investments in renewables and traditional hydrocarbons.
Now it appears that Putin has been cornered by the West and by countries he believed to be loyal allies. Is there to trust the statements of Xi and Modi? It is certain that Putin at this point, close to capitulate, given his premises, could make an extreme gesture and use his formidable strategic arsenal.
The feeling is that China and India, despite important commercial contracts recently signed with Russia, do not want to fall into the trap of placing themselves in sharp contrast with Western markets.
India is also part of the Quad, made up of the USA, Australia, Japan and Australia and does not intend to put itself in an antagonistic position just as it does not want to remain outside the SCO.
Although China has not openly sided with Russia in the Ukrainian affair, it has asked the 39th SCO opinion to be able to create a system of cross-border payments in local currencies, which bypasses the dollar, and has put on the table a promise of aid for 1,5 billion yuan (214,7 million euros) of food and humanitarian aid to developing countries.
"Multilateralism must be supported - Xi said - because the enthusiasm for the "small circles" (with reference to the G7 and the Quad) will push the world towards division and confrontation".