The Afghan peace does not hold up, making fear the worst for the future of a national reconciliation process opened with great clamor on 12 September last. The signing in Doha on February 29, 2020 of an agreement between the United States and Taliban rebels should have led to an easing of tensions and withdrawal of American troops by May 2021.
After a year, the premises were not then brought to the field. The Taliban, in a position of strength, pretend to argue but in reality they do not concede much to a discredited and weakened legitimate regime. The first round of negotiations, from September to December, was chaotic and episodic. The result was only agreement on the modalities of the discussion.
In fact, half of the country is still unstable, according to the International Red Cross. The two sides disagree on anything and international observers question the possibility of a fruitful dialogue.
Kabul calls for a permanent ceasefire, maintaining the current regime chaired by Ashraf Ghani, but the counterpart disagrees.
The head of the Afghan secret services, Ahmad Zia Siraj, declared yesterday, before the Parliament, that "the Taliban intend to delay talks until US forces withdraw from Afghanistan in May".
Worse still, the terms of the pre-peace agreement, the only framework that requires this inter-Afghan dialogue, show serious signs of weakness. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid on Monday denounced a violation of the agreement after US attacks on rebels in the south of the country. A representative of the American forces, Colonel Sonny Leggett, assured that they were "defensive" and did not constitute an attack on the commitments made by the two sides to stop all mutual violence.
The Pentagon has hardened towards the insurgents. For the first time, on Monday, the US military accused the Taliban of a series of targeted killings: they killed the deputy governor of the province of Kabul, five journalists and the head of an independent election observation organization.
Colonel Leggett, writes Le Monde, made it clear that the United States will continue to support Afghan troops in the face of Taliban attacks. The Trump administration's gamble to sign an agreement with the insurgents as a first step before forcing them to sign peace with Kabul now seems difficult to keep. Especially since, according to Interior Minister Massoud Andarabi, speaking in front of Parliament on Monday, "the Taliban are preparing for a full-scale war in 2021".
The proof of this theory is that Taliban fighters who traditionally spent the winter in Pakistan were ordered to stay in Afghanistan to prepare for this offensive. The Taliban command is even about to leave its shelters in Pakistan to return to settle in Afghanistan. This prospect could, according to some optimists, be part of a strategy aimed at strengthening the strong position of the insurgents during the Doha talks. For others, more pessimistic, such as Afghan Vice President Amrullah Saleh, the almost daily attacks on government forces instead herald the Taliban's willingness to try to take control of the country as soon as the American withdrawal is completed. A nice grain for the newly elected US president Joe Biden.
The Italian position
"Italy will continue to do its part in Afghanistan". The defense minister had said so Lorenzo Guerini at a hearing in Parliament last November. The commitment the Minister stressed will be to continue "the mission entrusted to us in the West sector of Afghanistan based in Herat ". Guerini therefore expressed the government's position after the announcement of the withdrawal of American troops in Afghanistan and Iraq.
But the real turning point will be the February NATO Ministerial. "The installation of the new American administration - underlines Guerini - will be the moment in which the Alliance will have to evaluate its own situation in Afghanistan. He will have to decide whether to continue the mission, how to continue the mission or whether to proceed with the conclusion of the mission in Afghanistan with the overall withdrawal of the contingents deployed there ”. An important appointment during which, Guerini explains, the consolidation of the Doha process will be evaluated, the developments on the ground and the minister will make decisions all together.
The cessation of violence hoped for in the Doha dialogue, which is the subject of the confrontation between the United States and the Taliban, is still far from being achieved and every decision will have to be evaluated on the basis of the conditions that are developing on the ground and developing in Afghanistan ". It is important for the minister that "there are no setbacks with respect to the results that have been achieved in recent years in terms of increasing civil rights, the status of women, access to education, which are absolutely essential for imagining a development of that reality ”. "As you know - he added, addressing the parliamentarians - the Italian position summarizes us in the motto 'in togheter, out togheter, ad just togheter ', we got there together, we will leave together, we will decide together.