(by Biagino Costanzo, company manager and AIDR member) Too many words on the Recovery Fund, or rather Next generation EU, too many on the media that repeat endlessly "now that we have these 209 billion" "now that there is this money" ... "now that the recovery fund has arrived" etc etc.
First of all, it is necessary to clarify the timing of the transfers, (on the concreteness of the disbursement I believe that, regardless of the stomach ache of the so-called "frugal" countries, they will be resolved.), Therefore in 2021 Italy will use25 billions of the Next generation Eu program in 2021 (11of loans from the recovery fund, 10 of grants plus others 4 funding for cohesion (React Eu), in 2022 the resources that Italy will require from Europe will rise to 37,5billion, in 2023 there will be a peak up to 41 billions, and then return to 39,4 billion in 2024, 30,6 in 2025 and 27,5 in 2026.
In the first years, Italy will mainly ask for subsidies (52 billion by 2023, out of a total of 65,4), limiting the use of loans (43,5 billion by 2023 e 84,1 from 2024 to 2026) which affect the debt. To prevent it from increasing, the loans will be used mainly to replace the issuance of government bonds (saving on interest) while the grants will go to finance the additional investments. The fact remains, explains Minister Gualtieri, that even the loans will give important help. For example, says the minister, the 110% superbonus for energy and anti-seismic renovations, which with the maneuver could be extended to the whole of 2023, "is an effective measure, but rather expensive, perfect to be supported with loans, even because it is consistent with the objectives of the European »plan.
Another issue is the ESM, EU loans, without interest and conditionality, for others 36 billions that could be requested for health care is still a knot that the government will have to solve sooner or later.
But how did we arrive at the figure for our country of ben 209 billions. A mixed criterion was used to distribute the loans of the 750 of the entire package: first of all the population of each individual state, the GDP per capita, and for the first two years the average unemployment rate between 2015 and 2019; in 2023 this criterion will be replaced with the reduction of national GDP between 2020 and 2021 caused by the pandemic.
All the criteria mentioned make Italy one of the main beneficiaries of the Next Generation EU. According to a calculation released by the Italian government and confirmed by some economists, Italy would get about 81,4 billions of subsidies e 127,4 billions of loans.
But we must be serious more than ever, the credibility of our country is at stake now and the very future of the next generations is at stake.
First of all we must underline as Stefano statesMycossi, general manager of Assonime, that the agreement reached on the RF is "an extraordinary success for the European Union, an extraordinary success made possible by the newfound unity and common determination of Germany and France", "now comes the greatest challenge, which is that of spending them well ”, underlines Micossi.
But at the same time Carlo Cottarellilooking to the future, he warns, “the problems are not solved, quite the contrary. According to Cottarelli, Italy will have to present “a program that is valid, something we have not yet been able to do for now. We are the last country, we have not yet presented a national reform plan, which is a formal act, but it shows that we are still moving too slowly. Now there will again be a task force to create a project to be presented to Europe and to outline us ”.
In short, the game is delicate. Our country must have the objective of using these funds first of all for structural investments and for economic growth of sustainable development, in order to make Italy a more modern, more digital, more innovative, greener and more sustainable country. Strengthening companies first of all, in such a difficult moment, it is necessary to encourage work and work is created by companies and certainly not by assistance which, moreover, tends to end and certainly not to last indefinitely.
Most of the investments must go to small but also large ones infrastructure, To school, at the University, To Research, al hydrogeological reorganization of a fragile country like ours.
The real recovery will be only if this unprecedented and unrepeatable economic plan is addressed to very specific political objectives, shared both at European and national level, those of favoring the ecological, energy and digital transition of the country.
Healthcare should therefore be one of the projects of the Recovery Plan, even if the amount to be allocated would be an entirely political game, the Mes. But be careful, without dwelling on the general madness of recent weeks that floods some sectors of society not only in Italy but throughout the world, but remaining in the facts, in this period of massive recovery of the spread of the virus and this time no longer in some areas of the country but distributed equally across all regions, the strengthening of public health in all its preventive and curative structures must be a priority and we are already terribly behind.
Support should also reach the school system, energy transformation towards “green”, waste management and public transport. Last but certainly not least there is the Mezzogiorno node and a possible, desirable fiscal incentive and vigorous support of resources for tourism.
Before the arrival of the health emergency, Europe had set guidelines starting from the so-called Green New Deal and the new resources are a good opportunity to think about a relaunch. The chapters are those of hydrogeological instability, maintenance of the road network, prevention of seismic risk and energy efficiency. All issues closely linked with the economic revival of the country and its structure. Therefore, let's not throw away resources for ideological stumbling blocks (of course that once ideologies were quite another thing ...) such as flooding our cities with scooters with confusion and without reason, otherwise dangerous as easily imaginable or bicycle paths made and conceived very badly and ... empty .
Instead, let's strengthen public transport, which has become symbols of shameful incivility in many of our cities. For example, has the traffic in Rome gone crazy? But the use of a car is mandatory if you don't have efficient public transport. Now, if you take public transport, if it is fireproof it is better…, to reach your workplace or a hospital or other it takes hours, sometimes as much as it takes to reach Milan with high speed.
In Paris or London you don't even get in the hall of your brain to take the car, you move on the subway, otherwise not pressed like sardines.
Revolution Digital
Among the objectives that are set for Italy to obtain this inventive package there are also the development of ultra-broadband, e-health and the growth of the digital PA, fundamental factors to support the economic recovery and the modernization of our Country.
In fact, we cannot always talk about digital innovation and then not be able to count on a widespread distribution of broadband throughout the national territory and in large areas the internet does not even reach, with the consequent impossibility of many pupils to be able to join Dad. Or, to give a simple example, not being able to electronically receive from the Italian Post Office or from any Authority, a registered letter, a penalty, a normal communication, in short, feeding hours and hours in a row just to collect, sometimes, a simple communication from the condominium!
If we really want to talk about innovation and digitization, let's start with a recent figure (source Digital Agenda), only 76% of the adult population has used the internet in the last three months against an average of 87% in Europe, the Guidelines provide for the computerization of the public administration; the completion of the national fiber optic network and interventions for the development of 5G networks. In this sense it is important to guarantee a reliable, secure and fast connection to all companies.
Organized crime risk on the Funds
With the allocation of this substantial package, all the mafias are alerted.
L'Europol last September 15, through its section dedicated to criminal threats related to the COVID-19 emergency, announced that the funds destined for the RecoveryFund risk ending up in the hands of the mafias, its executive director Catherine The Bolle he raised the alarm on the "increase in infiltration into the economy" by criminal organizations and on the need for the EU to understand that "there are risks on the distribution of subsidies and aid".
It should be noted that the "evil" has already been done, fueling cases of fraud on health supplies, which have damaged the national health services, that there have been frauds on unemployment compensation, in Italy on the Citizenship Income given to people who are not certainly poor and sometimes known delinquents and on other subsidies given by governments to businesses and that there have also been cases of fake donations to search for treatments and vaccines.
It is therefore essential that there is careful monitoring of the distribution of EU funds under the Recovery Fund to avoid that they are not prey to organized crime, but instead are destined for those who really need them.
In Italy, the best of our law enforcement agencies are on high alert. The commitment of the GIA, Joint Anti-Mafia Inspection Groups (Ps, Cc and Gdf) is strengthened.
The Commander General of the Guardia di Finanza Giuseppe Zafarana in an interview with Sole 24 Ore stated that “the European funds coming in are a historic occasion. But the risk of infiltration by economic crime is great. "" The scope of public intervention is historic and calls the Guardia di Finanza to responsibilities of exceptional importance. The economic and financial maneuver promises to be wide-ranging and, if not monitored adequately, it could fuel unacceptable forms of illicit personal enrichment, altering the functioning of the market "
The Arma dei Carabinieri, led by General Giovanni Nistri, has at the forefront the Rgrouping Operativo Speciale (led by Gen. Pasquale Angelosanto) has equipped itself with a real "catalog" updated with the emergency where the sectors most sensitive to criminal infiltration, the differences between the appetites of the clans, are highlighted. The Camorra and Apulian ones are hovering over the supply of masks, the Cosa Nostra is lurking between sanitation equipment and public orders, the 'ndrine of the' Ndrangheta, in particular, focus on the new chapters of public construction, especially healthcare, and waste . On the other hand, the greed of the clans to do business with illicit credit and money laundering remained unchanged, usury is increasing, mafia welfare has multiplied among the unemployed and weak sections of the population (as I had already highlighted in one of my articles "Covid-19, who is really celebrating? Organized crime between usury and money laundering" of last July 26)
Then there is the State Police, the prefect Franco Gabrielli, it should be remembered, he is Chief of Police but also Director General of Public Security. Thus, its guidelines for prevention and contrast action were twofold. The permanent infiltration monitoring body meets periodically at Criminalpol, the investigative specialists of the police force deliver up-to-date analyzes on mafia tactics and strategies.
Then there is the operational line of the State Police, which starts from the central anti-crime direction and involves the mobile teams, the anti-crime divisions, the central operational and anti-crime services. When the health emergency caused by Covid exploded, the immediate input to the police headquarters was to concentrate information and investigative activities, in continuous coordination with the prosecutors, on crimes for profit. The so-called spy crimes, the scenario applies to all law enforcement agencies, now become fraud in public supplies, tax evasion, auction disruption
There is so much to do and it would be time to take the best of energy to plan for the future but in the meantime "the Recovery and Resilience Plan", as the Italian Government called it, which has been sent to Parliament, is 38 pages long and 32 slides, more than a plan are a declaration of intent, while France, for example, has prepared a document of over 300 pages. In fact, they do not yet present which projects have been selected for the European Union to finance them with the 209 billion from the Recovery Fund, but merely reiterate the six guidelines, which have already been known for some time.
There is no lack of controversy, even from Confindustria which warns "interventions for businesses are stalled, there is no strategy, the executive must also dialogue with the opposition".
In short, the credibility of a country, of the institutions, of the production system and I would say, of an entire people, is at stake, not only in relation to Europe and the world but above all in our new generations.
Italy is called to make decisions that live up to expectations, knowing how to combine rigor and competitiveness, concreteness and not empty propaganda, speed and non-floating in nothing, to innovate and redesign our idea of a country and the type of development we want for the future.