Industry of Varese, the fourth quarter of 2020 is less negative, but the path of recovery needs stability and confirmation

“Resistance + Change = Resilience”. A slogan? No, on the contrary, an equation that clearly identifies the economic situation in which the Varese companies currently find themselves. Roberto Grassi, President of the Industrialists' Union of the Province of Varese, took a picture of the manufacturing system of the province in the shadow of the Pre-Alps and outlined the way forward in the course of the usual press conference at the beginning of the year.

“The data presented by the Univa Research Department highlight one fact: the resilience of our Varese production system and its businesses. Despite all the difficulties of the moment, we are resisting. The companies of the industrial system are acting as a social barrier to the crisis triggered by the pandemic - explains Grassi -. But the element of resistance is also accompanied by that of the change we are experiencing in companies. Faced with a change in paradigms imposed by the virus and an emergency situation, they are adapting with extreme flexibility and with investments to the new context ".

To put it in other words, Italian manufacturing, and the Varese one is certainly no exception, is "holding the country together", as the President of Univa reiterates, "resisting an unprecedented shock wave". And how is he doing it? “Not by simply anchoring ourselves to what we have always done, but by reinventing and innovating products, processes, organization, methods and approaches. A tiring and silent transformation that we see in numbers, certainly not positive, but which in the face of the current crisis act as a barrier and show the strength of our fundamentals. Thanks to this, the manufacturing system is holding back a crisis that could be even worse without the reaction capacity of the industrial enterprises of the territory and of those of the services connected to them. A role that we want to strongly claim and that belongs to the whole company: entrepreneurs and workers together. Those who believe that ours is an 'obsolete' industrial model are invited, by the numbers, to change their mind ”, comments Roberto Grassi.

THE NUMBERS

And it is precisely the numbers, elaborated by the economic survey relating to the fourth quarter of 2020 carried out by the Research Department of Univa, which confirm Grassi's words and vision. The data are, in fact, less negative than in the summer period. However, there was not enough improvement to make up for the huge losses recorded, especially in the first part of the year. Looking at 2020 as a whole, it is estimated, in fact, among the companies interviewed, an average loss in turnover of about 14 percentage points compared to 2019. The improvement recorded is not homogeneous and is differentiated according to the sectors and proximity to the final consumer: sectors closer to the final distribution chains, such as textiles and clothing, show a slowdown; vice versa, the upstream sectors of the industry, such as the metalworking industry, show, with some exceptions, an economic improvement in the last quarter of the year. Rebound also for the chemical-pharmaceutical and rubber-plastic.

PRODUCTION

In terms of production, the fourth quarter of 2020 recorded an increase (partly physiological) compared to the previous quarter which also includes the month of August. 66% of the companies interviewed reported increasing production levels compared to the previous quarter, 9,7% down, 24,3% stable. The data on the degree of plant utilization also increased, reaching 78,5%, compared to 71,4% recorded in the summer quarter. However, this is an economic improvement and the comparison with last year, especially looking at the cumulative data, is still negative. That the situation remains difficult, however, is shown by the data on the use of social safety nets with which 2020 ends: 53,2 million hours of layoffs in the Varese industry. 800% more than in 2019. A complicated picture that does not, however, obscure the desire of the Varese companies to bet on the future. The survey on investments also carried out by the Univa Research Department, in fact, highlights how, despite an atypical year like 2020, 62% of companies in the area have continued to invest in modernization, production extensions, research and development , patents, space adjustments in an anti-Covid perspective.

And for 2021? Production forecasts for the first quarter remain unstable, with 59,7% of the companies interviewed expecting a cautious maintenance of current production levels, 21,8% a decline and only 18,4% an increase.

NORMALITY AND MODERNITY

And after a roundup of numbers, percentages and forecasts, one wonders: when will the infamous and much-named return to normalcy, new or "old", whatever? “There is a lot of talk about the new normal. Here the companies are experimenting, looking for and practicing new models of work organization and repositioning on the market precisely to readjust to a world that, even after the pandemic, will still be different. Because the company is modern and anticipating scenarios or it is not. More than a new normal, I would speak of a constant search for modernity. The numbers presented by our Research Department also speak of this: of an industrial reality moving towards the new. We regret that the same approach of adapting to an emergency and profoundly changing context is not shared by the political system at every level, not just national ", declares the President of Univa, Roberto Grassi, referring to the government crisis still underway .

“Here we see little of modernity. In this sense, institutions, national and local governing bodies, majorities and oppositions, after an initial common front built on the glue of fear, returned within a few months to entrench themselves on rituals, incomprehensible quarrels, bonds of self-referentiality, search for consent, discharge barrel, as if nothing around them had changed. As if the emergency were not calling us all to unity, to collaboration, to common principles, to the setting aside of partisan distinctions to serve a general interest that is today very much in crisis by a virus. The current political crisis is paradoxical. Something incomprehensible and offensive towards entrepreneurs, workers, students and the sacrifices and efforts of an entire country that is socially and economically repositioning itself in the pandemic context. Everything changes, everything changes except politics. Even in the face of a pandemic, the political system has decided to surprise us. In negative. Never before have institutions lost contact with reality and with the country. Now our hope is that the entire parliamentary arc will support the project of the President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella, to give life to a government led by Mario Draghi 'of high profile that should not identify with any political formula'. We can only agree. Stability, responsibility and unity are needed to face the difficult challenges we face ”, says Grassi.

Roberto Grassi: "Industry is keeping the country on its feet"

| Economics, EVIDENCE 4 |