Between economic bonuses, layoffs, hiring / investments in health care, suspension and tax cuts, refreshments, subsidies, grants, etc., last year every Italian citizen hypothetically received 1.979 euros from the state to deal with the negative effects caused by the pandemic, against an average of the Eurozone countries which is estimated at 2.518 euros per capita (+539 euros compared to the Italian average).
Although we were the nation that in Europe has recorded the highest number of victims due to Covid and, at the same time, we have suffered the collapse of the GDP among the most ruinous in the whole EU, in comparison with the main countries of the Union we are , together with Spain, those who have "helped" their citizens / businesses to a lesser extent.
Austria, for example, paid 3.881 euros per inhabitant (+1.902 euros compared to us), Belgium 3.688 euros (+1.709 euros), the Netherlands 3.443 euros (+1.464 euros), Germany 2.938 (+ 959 euro) and France 2.455 euro (+476 euro compared to Italy). Only Spain, with 1.977 euros per capita, has allocated slightly less than us (-2 euros).
This comparison, referring to 2020, obviously does not include the 32 billion euro budget gap that was approved by the Italian Parliament last January and which, in the next few days, should allow the approval of the "Support decree".
Returning to the comparison reported at the beginning of this note, the difference in the Italian public deficit (given by the difference between that referred to 2020 and the 2015-2019 average) was, in absolute value, equal to 118 billion euros. Among the countries of the Euro Area, only Germany (244,3 billion) and France (165,3 billion euro) have introduced measures that are economically more expansive than ours. Spain, which in per capita terms has the same amount as ours, appears to have "disbursed" much less in absolute terms: precisely 93,6 billion.
• A country in “red” that risks losing many small traders and as many artisans
Given the trend of infections in recent days, in the next 2-3 weeks a large part of the country will be in "red". Therefore, many commercial activities (clothing, footwear, sporting goods, etc.) and personal services (barbers, hairdressers and beauticians) will remain closed. Not to mention that the bars and restaurants have been forced to lower the shutters since the moment in which the region they belong to has become "orange". From the CGIA they let it be known that no one questions the right / duty of the government to introduce restrictions on mobility and impose the closure of economic activities in order to protect public health. What the operators are contesting is that the economic compensation paid up to now to the activities that have been forced to close have arrived in serious delay and have been completely insufficient. Furthermore, in recent months, the situation has even worsened. Following the mini-lockdowns imposed in the last months of November and December, after almost 2 and a half months, the compensation has yet to be defined and, consequently, allocated. A delay that is putting many micro and small commercial and artisan businesses in serious economic difficulty.
• The “Support decree” is still not convincing
Although the logic of the ATECO codes has been overcome, the new “Support decree”, currently being defined by the Draghi government, still does not persuade the craftsmen and small entrepreneurs from Mestre. In the first place, because the delivery times are lengthening unjustifiably; secondly, because it seems that this measure does not yet include public funds able to compensate for a significant percentage of the missed collections, but not even part of the fixed expenses that the activities, especially those closed by decree, continue to sustain.
We underline that in recent months the European Union has modified the Temporary Framework (temporary framework for measures of state aid to companies), postponing its effects until 31 December of this year. Among other things, the Member States have been granted the possibility, to support the activities that have registered a drop in turnover of at least 30 per cent, to raise the state aid ceiling from 800 to 3 million euros. A path immediately followed by France, which since January has announced support for up to 70 percent of fixed costs to support the companies most affected by the lockdown.
It is clear that this additional current expenditure would contribute to increasing the public debt of our country, but it is equally true that if we do not save businesses and jobs, we do not lay the foundations to restart economic growth which remains the only possibility capable of to reduce in the next few years the amount of public debt that we have frightfully accumulated with this crisis. With the risk of a desertification that affects above all the historic centers and our neighborhoods, since they will no longer be able to count on the presence of many artisan shops and neighborhood shops.
• The calculation method adopted
The CGIA Studies Office has reached the results reported above, comparing the public deficit of 2020 with the average data, always of the same indicator, recorded in the previous five-year period (2015-2019). The public deficit, it should be remembered, is the difference between the expenses of the state and the revenues that it takes from the pockets of citizens and businesses through taxes and contributions. Therefore, the public deficit (or net debt) in this historical phase is a figure that approximates the expansionary measures which, as regards our country in 2020, are attributable to the various measures approved from March onwards ("Cura Italia", " Relaunch Decree "," Liquidity Decree "," Italian Guarantee "," August Decree ", the various" Refreshments Decrees ", etc.), which must be subtracted from the lack of tax revenue caused by the contraction in income suffered by Italians.
However, it should be emphasized that, in the case of Italy, the 2020 data are still provisional and were extrapolated from the press release presented by Istat at the beginning of last week. For the other countries of the Euro Area, however, the data are forecast (processed in November 2020 by the European Commission). For all the countries examined in this elaboration, the guarantees on loans disbursed last year by individual states are not included in the public deficit.