"The current situation in Libya "entails an aggravation of the rift between Cyrenaica and Tripolitania", while inertia is "shifting more and more" in favor of General Khalifa Haftar, commander of the self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA). ”Umberto Profazio, analyst at the NATO Defense College Foundation and the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told the Italian news agency Nova.
"The current situation, due both to the Haftar offensive in Tripoli and to the intransigence of Prime Minister Fayez Sarraj, who does not want to return to dialogue without a withdrawal of the DNA to the east, involves a worsening of the rift between Cyrenaica and Tripolitania". Profazio recalled the existence of different "parallel institutions "in Libya, with two different central Banks (one in the west and one in the east of the country), two different National Oil Corporation (Noc, the oil company), two different Libyan Investment Authorities (Lia, the authority for investments whose funds are however blocked by the UN). "The continuation of this conflict and the inability to find a synthesis risks leading to a split".
The ongoing conflict in Tripoli, added to the news that the Libyan general has accumulated a debt of around 25 billion dollars to finance the offensive on Tripoli, has fueled fears that Haftar may try to sell the Libyan crude autonomously, bypassing the noc. "From a financial point of view, Haftar could replicate what it did last summer, ie export oil independently thanks to contacts with regional powers in favor of its design, in particular the United Arab Emirates, but then a warning from the United States prevented it he established this kind of export from the east, "said Profazio.
However, after the phone call between Trump and Haftar the 15 took place last April, "the inertia seems to be moving more and more towards Haftar, which already has the support of different regional actors, including Saudi Arabia and Emirates". According to the "Wall Street Journal", Riyadh would provide Haftar with financial support to finance the Cyrenaica strong man's offensive. "Even from an economic point of view, at the moment I believe that inertia is moving towards the LNA", concluded Profazio.
Al Sarraj, meanwhile, tries to show abroad that he is holding back the ranks of Libyan events. The diplomatic card is played as Tripoli loses another Mirage F-1 fighter led by an alleged Portuguese mercenary who has fallen into the hands of rivals of the Libyan National Army (LNA). Yesterday he was in Italy and Germany. Today he will fly to London and in the evening he will be in France.
IERI (Yesterday) il president of the Conte Council received Prime Minister Fayez al Sarraj. From Palazzo Chigi they made it known that the premier Tale he reiterated the strong commitment of the Italian government to revitalize an effective and sustainable political process. The meeting provided an opportunity for an update of the developments on the ground and an exchange of views on the Libyan situation. Giuseppe Conte confirmed the need to avoid further spirals of violence in order to be able to start a confrontation between the parties under the aegis of the United Nations and with the support of the international community, for the benefit of the Libyan people, the stability of the country and the entire region ".
From Tripoli, on the other hand, they explain that Sarraj thanked Italy for the "clear condemnation of the aggression" of General Haftar against Tripoli, but asked Rome to "exert a greater effort" in European and regional headquarters to force the besiegers to withdraw. Through a statement, the GNA states that the talks at Palazzo Chigi have addressed "the repercussions of the assault" on the Libyan capital Tripoli, defined as a real "aggression". The Libyan premier thanked the government of Rome for providing humanitarian aid "during the GNA war against terrorism in Sirte and elsewhere", also stressing Italian support "provided to the Libyan coast guard and its effective contribution to addressing the issues of illegal migration ". The head of the Libyan government has also expressed appreciation for Italy's choice to keep the embassy in Tripoli open, "which is still operational despite the current crisis".
Sarraj, the note reads, called on the Italian government "to exert a greater effort to positively change the hesitant regional and EU position, given Italy's international status and weight". The objective, the note from the GNA continues, must be to "stop the aggression" and to withdraw Haftar's forces "from the previous positions". Conte, the Libyan government continues in the note on Facebook, welcomed Sarraj's visit, "reiterating his country's position in support of the GNA", and confirmed that "there is no military solution to the Libyan crisis". The Italian premier, according to the note of the GNA, underlined the need to resume the dialogue as soon as possible. "Italy knows that the war could endanger Libya and the region," said Conte.
The situation on the ground
Meanwhile on the ground there is the felling south of Tripoli of a Mirage F1 del Gna led by an alleged Portuguese mercenary named Jimmy Reis, 29 years, captured by the forces of the Lna. Through an alleged release published on Facebook and taken up by the satellite television station "Al Arabiya", the LNA would have explained that the military plane shot down today south of Tripoli would not report to the Government of a national agreement based in Tripoli, but it would be part of the European military operation Sophia, aimed at neutralizing the consolidated routes of the trafficking of migrants in the Mediterranean. Later the Facebook page turned out to be a false profile. Therefore the same Mismari wrote on Twitter a little while ago "not having released any statement today". The Sophia Eunavfor Med operation, for its part, has denied any relationship with the alleged Portuguese pilot.