Marseille, President of FederPetroli Italia explains what happens behind the Venezuelan chronicle: "Situation similar to US-Iraq in the era of Saddam Hussein", "more Venezuelan oil in America with obligatory path: as if the United States buy crude oil at a discounted price, imposing sanctions on other ......... ..
I The main European Union countries have recognized the legitimacy of Juan Guaidò today, the President of the National Assembly of Venezuela that last January 23 declared himself President. Guaidò had immediately obtained the recognition of the United States, while theEurope had asked Maduro to convene within a week of democratic elections. THE'ultimatum has expired. And the most of the European countries (France, United Kingdom, Spain, Germany - which has already announced 5 million in humanitarian aid -, Austria, Sweden, Denmark, Holland, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, the Netherlands) they recognized Guaidò.
THEItaly officially did not express a position. The president of the Republic Sergio Mattarella recalled that «that of Venezuela is a particularly important condition also for Italy because the link between Italy and Venezuela is very close, for the many Italians living in Venezuela and for the many Venezuelans of Italian origin", And therefore"this condition requires us a sense of responsibility and clarity on a shared line with all our allies and all our partners in the European Union», Words clearly referring to the Government, in the context of which the League is aiming for the recognition of Guaidò, the M5S with leading exponents such as Alessandro Di Battista is aiming at Maduro, the pentastellato Vice President of the Council Luigi Di Maio and the premier Giuseppe Conte officially they take a stand, so the government is divided. On the other hand, continues Mattarella, "in the proposed choice there can be neither uncertainty nor hesitation: the choice between popular will and the request for authentic democracy on the one hand, and on the other hand, the violence of force and the suffering of the civilian population». Indication of Mattarella that is clearer than that.
Maduro, announced during these hours that: «Ho sent a letter to Pope FrancisI hope he is on the road or has arrived in Rome, at the Vatican, saying that I am at the service of the cause of Christ. And with this spirit I asked him for help, in a process of facilitation and strengthening of dialogue, as a direction». We will see in the next few hours how the Vatican will be able to respond.
The United States, Canada, Australia and some Latin American countries had already recognized Guaidò almost at the same time as his self-proclamation and the start, on January 27, of the new US sanctions, the toughest ever implemented: sanctions against the Venezuelan state oil company Pdvsa, with the block of seven billion assets.
E right on 'oil issue' pay attention. The question is central in the Venezuelan affair, and not just for Venezuela, but for the entire oil galaxy and for the balance of power that revolve around it in fact affect the international balance. We discussed this with Michele Marsiglia, President of Federpetroli Italy, an attentive observer of international political issues related to oil, a voice that is by no means 'mainstream', one that says of himself in this interview, "By now the sartorial dress sewed on the undersigned is known. What Marseille has always supported the dictators with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Iran, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi in Libya and in these last few days I have read of being a pro Maduro". Marseille has the ability to explain clearly and without hypocrisy, with the pragmatic clarity of the manager what is behind the news. And this time it is not denied.
President, what will happen on the international oil scenario after the last US sanctions against Pdvsa (Petróleos de Venezuela)?
It happens that international energy balances are changing and this is another clear and precise signal. We are witnessing, see in the first place the Qatar case and strategic political alliances that use oil to assert their political supremacy. Scenarios are changing rapidly, and this is precisely the difficulty facing companies and markets.
On Venezuela these sanctions how much and how will they weigh and what will it mean?
It means: Destabilization, at least at an early stage. A country that lives for 92 percent on its energy resources, enters an automatic default phase. There is not only a discourse of sanctions, but the most important thing, and not to be underestimated, is that Venezuela has the mineral resource, but most of the strategic refining structures are located in other countries. Producers but not final refiners. This is a bit 'the situation of 40 years ago in the Middle East, a surplus of mineral resources but few infrastructures, a sign of high industrial difficulty and external commercial dependence.
Is it the blow that will sink Venezuela?
Imagine a country like Venezuela or Latin America sinking, I would not feel like saying it, also because many times we have seen that in difficult situations, usually another state has always come to reach out. Where there is oil there is life ... .and everyone's interest, we are talking about a state that lives on energy exports. Surely the internal situation, if we do not reach a political agreement, will suffer unpleasant moments, but let us not forget that it is also a country where for over 50 years there is an internal economic system not always parallel to the real wealth of natural resources of the State.
Let's look at the USA. We understand that the sanctions will hit the US Gulf Coast refineries that depend on Venezuelan oil. Let us understand: what will happen and how and how much will the US be hit by these sanctions?
As I mentioned before, the US maneuver is clear: pointing to sanctions against a State, and having the strategic processing facilities of the product, or the most important infrastructure, aim to minimize the cost of raw materials with sanctions and exploit and maximize refining earnings (US soil) with US taxation. America plays this game in the massacre: if you want to work with me, you can not buy from Venezuela or vice versa. In this way, given the commercial interest for the US, there will be those who will tend to work with the United States and renounce Venezuela. Crude oil will always have to go to processing in refineries in America, but there will be a lot more, having renounced someone because of the sanctions. Result: more Venezuelan oil in America with mandatory route. It is as if the United States buy crude oil at a discounted price, imposing sanctions on others. In this way Venezuela, if not with an external rescue of a Big Country, will have to play the last cards and, therefore, a political agreement between Nicolàs Maduro and Juan Guaidò, where even at international level it is not clear who and with whom it is. The refineries will not be hit, the outgoing internal mineral resource will be hit and the countries that decide to operate also with a sanctions regime. We are witnessing a similar US-Iraq situation in the era of Saddam Hussein, even if the US military intervention has not yet taken place.
The Chinese investments planned will be affected and what fate will they have in the Maduro case?
A statement by Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said a few days ago that China will continue to cooperate with Venezuela, despite US sanctions. Two countries that have been trading partners for a long time and have faced many situations together. The investments of companies that operate with Venezuela are already having a negative effect, in these situations it can not be otherwise. What we are analyzing is the possibility of new investments, where stand-by plans have already been approved on new economic and infrastructural investment operations.
Guaido how will the oil industry manage, starting with Citgo and PDVSA?
The Maduro character is known, but Guaidò's politics, industrial strategy and international relations are unknown. The only point that can be signed is that it is a 'employee' of the White House, but international economic operators are not evaluating this factor positively, nor even the oil companies.
Who will earn from these sanctions? specifically, what will Canada earn? and what Saudi Arabia and Emirates?
We have seen this with Iran, the sanctions policy in an industrial strategy is never positive. Sanction corresponds to the limitation not only of the State or country submitted, but to the whole that gravitates around. I refer in particular to the strategies to be adopted by companies and business partners. When we enter a 'sanctions' regime, our difficulty is to quickly decide the economic-commercial policy to be followed and to consider the relationship that will be jeopardized not only with the financial institutions (international banks) that support us, but also with diplomatic, institutional and other relations. The sanctions policy has always led to a massive diversification of product supply, at least in our sector, see Iran. Canada, Saudi Arabia and other countries, to date we can not hazard forecasts if the situation does not become clearer. We will certainly witness a revolution in international economic-commercial agreements.
Let's look at OPEC: Venezuela has presided over it since the beginning of the year. What will happen inside OPEC? How will the OPEC balances and policies change? Is Saudi Arabia rubbing its hands and Iran is worried?
Since the last meeting in Vienna, for the Venezuelan government, Saudi Arabia has submitted to the wishes of the United States when oil production started to increase last July, after President Trump accused OPEC of artificially maintaining high levels of oil prices. Thanks to this record production, prices are still falling and OPEC has to start cutting prices again, even if not all member countries can afford it and Venezuela is one of them.OPEC, we have already been saying it for some time, today it is no longer that Cartel in defense of the oil producing and exporting Countries. This decline in leadership began when the Viennese organization overturned its internal policies and road maps, starting to dialogue with third parties, in order to secure small market shares. This evidence of fear on the part of the OPEC has been a fundamental element in the internal division where Qatar has become a trailblazer. The balances within the OPEC have not existed for years and, in these times all the Members of the Organization are implementing independent policies and strategies to save their own interests. This had never happened inside the OPEC. In fact from the Statute all the decisions to follow must be perennially unanimous.
Who will invest in the reconstruction of the oil sector in Venezuela if Maduro falls? Will there be a battle between Russia and the United States?
Allow me to say these few words and to clarify. By now the sartorial dress sewn on myself is well known. What Marseille has always supported the dictators with Mahmud Ahmadinejad in Iran, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi in Libya and in recent days I have read that I am a pro Maduro. We carry on and carry on as well as represent the industrial and economic energy interest of a sector. If I could personally make some considerations at a political level, but this is not the case and the headquarters, at an entrepreneurial and industrial level, our mission is to preserve the economic and industrial interests as well as the investments that our companies have in that country, state , Regime or other. All the other scenarios of different character and themes are fundamental for us and for the international community, but business is something else. They will be strong words, but it is reality. Venezuela for a large part of the international oil / energy supply is called Nicolàs Maduro and before it has always been called Hugo Chàvez. I have my doubts and not only mine that the United States will succeed in this 'abstract operation' of conquest. So I reserve the right to see what happens in the next few days.
And what will China do?
Companies that are involved with various investments with Venezuela have already taken due precautions for some time. As I said, in these situations a voice of loss, albeit small or for a short time and to be budgeted. Among many, perhaps China was the only one to express openly a position of proximity to Venezuela, the others have a little 'fear to pronounce. We are curious to know the Italian voice in this regard, given that this time too, Europe and Italy have expressed conflicting opinions, and this has us understand many other situations to be managed.