If the increase in VAT rates is not defused, in addition to the heavy recessive effects on the economy, Italy also risks a sharp increase in tax evasion. In fact, the possible increase of 3 percentage points in the reduced rate and 3,2 in the ordinary rate would also affect maintenance and repair services, the fees of freelancers and building renovations. With this tax increase, in fact, many end customers would be "pushed" not to pay it at all, avoiding asking the service provider for an invoice or receipt. To say this is the CGIA which, in addition to remembering that tax infidelity subtracts 113 billion euros a year from the state coffers, also launches an appeal to the two Deputy Premiers:
"After today's statements by the Premier Conte - affirms the coordinator of the Studies Office Paolo Zabeo - Di Maio and Salvini cannot limit themselves to affirming that the VAT will not increase. They must also tell us where they will find the resources to avoid tax increases. Otherwise, their commitments do not appear credible, thus confirming the thesis of those who expect a fiscal sting from the beginning of the 2020 ".
From the CGIA they report that an increase in the reduced rate (currently at 10 per cent) would cost Italians almost 3 billion (2.896 million) and ordinary 4,3 (4.370 million). Therefore, it is not inconceivable that 23,1 billion of potential increase (of which 22.672 million of VAT to which would be added further 400 million of increase of the excise on fuels), the Executive is able to sterilize only a part of it. A hypothesis, the latter, equally disliked by the craftsmen from Mestre.
Secretary Renato Mason states: "Faced with economic growth that is still very timid and uncertain, any increase in VAT would negatively affect domestic consumption and, consequently, the entire economy, particularly penalizing the poorest families. Already today we are among the main countries of the euro area to have the highest standard VAT rate. If we are at 22 per cent, in Spain it is at 21, in France at 20 and in Germany at 19. With a touch up of 3,2 points, we would go up to 25,2. In the Eurozone no one could count on such a high rate ".
Who would be penalized more by a possible VAT increase?
“In absolute terms - continues Zabeo - they would be the highest earners, given that greater economic availability is accompanied by a higher spending capacity. The most correct measurement, however, is obtained by calculating the percentage incidence of the VAT increase on the net salary of a head of the family. By adopting this methodology, the heaviest burden would affect the earners of low incomes and, with the same income, the larger families ”.
As previously stated, with more VAT we would have negative effects for the whole economy. In fact, about 60 percent of our GDP is attributable to household consumption. No other item that makes up the wealth produced in our country can boast such a high percentage incidence. If we increased the prices of goods and services, we would certainly raise inflation a bit, helping the public finances; however, in this way we would penalize many families and as many self-employed workers (artisans, small shopkeepers and VAT numbers) who live almost exclusively on internal demand.
"We would like to underline - concludes Mason - that compared to the pre-crisis year, that is to say the 2007, the consumption of Italian families is still lower by around 2,4 percentage points. In the Eurozone only we and Greece have this negative record, which obviously nobody envies us ".