The head of Italian external intelligence Alberto Manenti went to Moscow to solve a very delicate matter.
At stake was the participation of the strong man from Cyrenaica, the gen. Kalifa Haftar at the summit of Palermo.
Haftar did not want to sit at the same table with the new Minister of the Interior of the government of national accord Bishaga, Misrata's representative of the fringe belonging to the unwelcome Muslim Brotherhood.
AISE director Alberto Manenti flew urgently to Moscow to meet Al Sarraj's right-hand man, and persuade him not to let the new interior minister Bishaga intervene in Palermo. Having obtained the necessary assurances, General Kalifa Haftar will be in Palermo animated, however, by a great deal of distrust. Haftar's meeting with the Russian defense minister in recent days in Moscow proved very fruitful in convincing him to intervene in Palermo. To date there is another wound to mend: the number two of the Presidential Council Maetig, the measurean historical friend of Italy who speaks to Cairo through the military offices of Salem Juha has not received any invitation for the Palermo summit.
At this stage, the Italian government considers as main actors, for the expected summit, only Haftar, Al Sarraj, the president of the parliament of Tobruk Saleh and the head of the State Council Al Mishri, close to the Brotherhood.
However, Al Sarraj will bring the two deputies, then also Maetig in his political role (this will mitigate his obvious acredine).
Merkel and Macron will not come but there will be the French foreign minister, the Algerian prime minister, probably Al Sisi, the presidents of Chad and Niger, Turkey, a high Spanish representation and a Libyan delegation (28 people). Washington will not send Mike Pompeo but has decided to send its most important undersecretary, David Hale, US envoy for the Middle East. Russia will therefore send Russian Deputy Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, Putin's powerful plenipotentiary to the Middle East.
Strangely enough, France and Italy are collaborating. During the week, senior officials of the Elysée met their Italian colleagues in Rome and the people from Misano who were invited to Paris yesterday will come to Rome today.
Having averted the elections on December 10th as France would have liked, it hopes that at the end of the summit a "road map" will be established that will lead Libya to truly democratic elections. Yesterday the “Salamè Plan” was presented at the UN, where it was decided that the “strategic concept” of Palermo will be signed by Salamè, and the elections will be held next spring.
Piano Salamè
The first pillar is the project for the safety of the capital, which provides for the formation of an institutional force that should gradually replace the militias for the control of the territory. "The new Tripoli Security Arrangements Committee has prepared a comprehensive security plan for the capital Tripoli which was adopted by the Presidential Council, said the UN envoy for the North African country, stressing that they should be" disciplined and regular police forces. to protect the city, not the militias ”. In this scenario, the Palermo Conference "is an opportunity for Member States to offer concrete support in the training of professional security forces" so that Libyans are helped to "turn the page with respect to their dependence on armed groups for own protection ". Armed groups protagonists last September of violent clashes in Tripoli, which cost the lives of over 120 people, and with which the UN envoy negotiated a ceasefire agreement, followed by a global plan for the security of the Libyan capital. The agreement, Salamé explained, aims to "ensure that the armed groups operating in the city stop intimidating or controlling the institutions and that, in the long term, Tripoli is protected by regular and disciplined police forces". And "success in the capital is crucial, not only because it hosts most of the government institutions and 30% of the Libyan population, but also because what works in Tripoli can be a model to be replicated in other cities of the country," he said. The diplomat Then, on the economic source, he explained that the summit in Sicily is an opportunity to obtain more practical support on the redistribution of national wealth, and that stability will not be achieved in the country as long as the Libyans are fighting for resources.
Because if it is true that Libya is a rich country, as the Huffington Post writes, thanks to oil, and that in the first half of the year alone it recorded profits of over 13 billion dollars, nevertheless "Libyans are getting poorer while the criminals who resort to violence and patronage steal billions from the national coffers ”. However, precisely the September clashes offered "a unique opportunity" to initiate economic reforms aimed at improving the living conditions of Libyans and reducing the earning opportunities of the militias, reducing the large gap between the official exchange rate and that of the black market, which has allowed a few to get rich, and facing the lack of liquidity in banks, which forces Libyans to long lines out of credit institutions. "This was only the first step - the UN envoy pointed out - it is necessary to do more to further normalize the situation", favoring the gradual withdrawal of subsidies on petrol, which have allowed "traffickers to accumulate billions of dinars", but above all by "promoting the reunification" of the central bank and financial institutions. A reunification of financial institutions that necessarily passes from a political decision on the reunification of the country, today split between two governments, that of Tripoli, to the West, and that of Beida, to the East. The third cornerstone of the plan concerns the institutional path on which Libya must move forward, with the convening of a National Conference which "must be held in the first weeks of next year". A Congress that should be highly representative involving all the political realities of the country: "It is time to give the possibility to a larger and more representative group of Libyans to meet on the territory without external interference", explained Salamé. "But Congress will not be a new institution and does not want to replace other legislative bodies." "The consequent electoral process", however, "should be in spring 2019". "From the latest reports" 80% of Libyans insist on having elections as soon as possible, "added Salamé.
According to UN sources, the parliamentary elections should give life to a new legislative body, with a gradual replacement of the Parliament of Tobruk but also of the High Council of State of Tripoli. The new Parliament will therefore have to amend the current Constitution and at the same time work on an electoral law in view of the presidential elections, even if in terms of time it is not known how much this phase could take. In the best hypothesis we are talking about the beginning of 2020. At that point, in addition to guaranteeing stability to the country, with an elected president and government, Libya would have all the requisites of democracy to free resources now blocked by the embargo. During the discussions on the plan at the summit in Sicily, efforts will be made to build the greatest possible consensus on the part of international partners: "the unity of the international community is crucial if we want stability in Libya," Salamé said. A line fully embraced by the Italian Foreign Minister and also supported by some important global and regional actors engaged, to varying degrees and with different internal referents, on the Libyan front: USA, Russia, Great Britain, Egypt, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, albeit with differently modulated determinations, they support the “Plan S”.
Two days ago Salamé received the final report of the consultations held from April to July with all sectors of civil society, in more than 40 locations throughout Libya, as well as with diaspora groups residing abroad. According to a statement released two days ago by the UN, the consultations involved over 7.000 Libyans, while millions of others followed the process through social media or traditional media. It is the inclusion on which Moavero has always insisted, and which Prime Minister Conte has made his own, relaunching it in the missions that have led him to Washington, Moscow and, more recently, Tunisia and Algeria.
A report by Ce.SI (Centro Studi Internazionali) edited by Lorenzo Marinone: “The period of time that has elapsed since the breakdown of the institutional unity in 2014, from which the rival parliaments of Tripoli and Tobruk had arisen, has seen a net worsening of the political, security, economic and social framework of the country. The macro-division between East and West accelerated the fragmentation of the social and tribal fabric and exacerbated the feelings of mutual distrust and suspicion among the many souls of the revolt. Dozens of armed groups, often expressions of individual cities, if not neighborhoods, have repeatedly clashed, oscillating between the attempt to obtain a larger share of power and entrenchment in the defense of the privileges acquired after 2011. At the same time, the process United Nations-led diplomat has gradually lost vigor and incisiveness. The signing of the Skhirat Agreement (December 2015) and the subsequent establishment in Tripoli of the Government of National Unity (March 2016) immediately showed all their limits…. ".
Faced with this scenario, the Ce.SI analyst again notes, "up to now diplomacy has given priority to the creation of new institutions, within which the parties would later have to find a modus vivendi and agree on a fair distribution of power. The most recent tensions that have crossed the country, however, clearly indicate that Libyan actors have as top priority to ensure adequate access to state resources. Participation in the new institutions, like this? as the search for a form of legitimacy, they are seen only as a means to achieve this goal. .. ". The “Plan S” is, in this scenario, a gamble. Like the Palermo Conference.