By Massimiliano D'Elia
The humanitarian consequences of the decade-long conflict in Yemen, exacerbated by the situation in the Red Sea, are of unimaginable proportions, with millions of people affected by hunger, lack of medical care and forced displacement. The crisis in the Red Sea in recent days will probably shine a light on a country that has been experiencing a dramatic internal situation for years.
The crisis in the Red Sea has, therefore, taken on a global geopolitical and humanitarian scope, with impacts that extend well beyond the borders of Yemen, actively involving various regional and international actors, thus raising serious concerns for security and stability in the region with obvious repercussions on a stretch of sea considered vital for world trade.
The crisis in the Red Sea has, in fact, generated tensions between different factions, leading to an increasingly accentuated militarization of the area, especially following the war between Israel and Hamas, when the pro-Iranian rebel group of the Houthis, as a response to Israel, has intensified its attacks using attack drones and swarms of small boats against commercial shipping in transit on the Red Sea, forced to cross the forced funnel constituted by the canal Bab al-Mandab.
The Bab al-Mandab canal
The Bab al-Mandab plays a crucial role as a trade route, considered vital, especially for the maritime transport of oil and natural gas. Total oil shipments through the Bab al-Mandab, together with the Suez Canal at the northern end of the Red Sea and the SUMED pipeline - which crosses Egypt overland from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean - make up about 12% of the total volume of oil traded by sea in the first half of 2023. At the same time, liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments from this region account for about 8% of global LNG trade, according to recent statistics released by the US government .
This canal has, over time, become a focal point of global shipping routes, underlining its strategic importance in the global energy economy. The presence of rebel groups, including the Houthis, has contributed to an unstable environment in this key region, drawing the attention of international actors who have strategic interests related to the control of shipping lanes and the security of energy shipments. The situation in the Bab al-Mandab thus fits into a broader context of geopolitical complexity and challenges linked to the transport of energy resources and not only on a planetary scale.
Militarized Red Sea
The Red Sea is, therefore, a key route for the transport of oil and goods, and the threat of attacks on commercial ships in recent days has raised concerns within high-ranking international organizations such as the UN and the EU. Attacks against oil tankers and cargo ships in the Red Sea have triggered increased tensions in the global energy landscape, with direct impacts on oil markets and the energy security strategies of several nations.
The international community, including bodies such as the United Nations, have been trying to mediate and find a peaceful solution to the crisis, but challenges persist. The United States promoted the military operation Prosperity Guardian trying to involve several Western countries, including Italy. Our country has decided to send the multi-mission frigate 'Virginio Fasan' to the area, in the context of the legal coverage of the Atalanta mission.
Yemen's instability comes from afar
Instability in Yemen has deep roots with a complex history. The decades-long division between northern Yemen, ruled authoritatively by Ali Abdullah Saleh, and the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen in the south it has always generated continuous tensions. Reunification in 1990 saw the emergence of the Houthi rebel group, known asAnsaar Allah,” (the partisans of God), who represent the country's Shiite minority which comprises 40% of the population.
Originating from Saada in the northwest, the Houthis are affiliated with the Zaydis, a Shiite branch close to Sunnism. Moving from religious activities to political commitments against Saleh's government, the group underwent transformations, changing its name in 2004 in honor of Hussein al-Houti. The killing of the latter sparked a prolonged conflict with the central government, causing numerous victims and displaced people.
In 2012, during the Arab revolutions, Saleh was deposed and replaced by Abdu Rabdu Mansour Hadi with the support of the Gulf countries and the West. During the transition, the Houthis consolidated military power, attracting hostility from Sunni groups, including Al-Qaeda. Despite a Peace Agreement in 2014 under the aegis of the UN, recent tensions, highlighted by the storming of the presidential palace, highlight the persistence of tensions.
Yemen, although economically disadvantaged, is of strategic importance in the fight against international terrorism. The involvement of a Paris attacker trained in Yemen highlights the need to address the situation very carefully to prevent the country from falling into the hands of terrorist groups with disruptive ambitions towards Western societies.
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