rakanyorwa naFrancesco Matera
Russia inoenderera mberi kwayo basa rinokosha rehondo muUkraine nekugara ichibhomba nzvimbo dzakagarwa, zvichiratidza kugadzikana kwezvombo zvayo, sezviri pachena zvisingaperi uye zvinokwanisa kuzvizadza pasina kukanganisa. Kunyangwe huwandu hwevanhu, muhupenyu chaihwo, hukatanga kutambura nehondo, sekureva kweKremlin propaganda, zvinangwa zvinoramba zvisina kuchinjika zve2024 zvakare.
Muchiedza che data open source, mupengo chete ndiye angafunga kupinda muUkraine uye kurwisa zvisina kunanga kuMadokero nemauto asiri emazuva ese akajairika kunyangwe akabata rekodhi yenyika mumunda wezvombo zvenyukireya: 5889 Russian warheads zvichienzaniswa ne5646 America (Stockholm International Runyararo Tsvagiridzo Institute - Sipri - Ndira 2023). Nhamba idzi dzinosanganisira zvine hungwaru uye zvine hungwaru zvombo zvenyukireya uye izvo zvichaparadzwa, mukuteerana nechibvumirano chenyika mbiri. Nyowani Nyowani, parizvino yakamiswa neRussia unilaterally.
Chirevo cheLithuanian intelligence
Mushumo wepagore weLithuanian Intelligence, wakapihwa nezuro muVilnius, unopa zvimwe zvinobatsira zvekufungisisa kusimba kweRussia muhondo muUkraine, ichipindura mibvunzo iyo mauto ekuMadokero nevamiriri vanga vachibvunza kwenguva yakareba, chaizvo pakuramba kwebhomba reRussia.
Mushumo wacho wakajeka: “Russia ine mari yakakwana, vanhu, zvinhu uye tekinoroji zviwanikwa zvekuenderera mberi nehondo muUkraine pamwero wakafanana neazvino kweanenge mamwe makore maviri. ".
Gwaro iri rinoratidza kuti Russia iri kuendesa zviwanikwa zvakakura kuenda kuhondo muUkraine uye iri kugadzirira kunetsana kwenguva refu neAtlantic Alliance. Gwaro iri rinoratidzawo kuti sarudzo dzemutungamiri wenyika dzakarongwa munaKurume 17 dzinogona kuwedzera kusimbisa Vladimir Putin, nekuisa hwaro hwekuenderera mberi. escalation yekurwisana muUkraine. Kunyanya kutariswa kunobhadharwa, mugwaro, kugadziridzwa kwemauto uye kusimbiswa kwenzvimbo dzemauto muKaliningrad exclave. Chirevo ichi chinocherekedzawo kuti Belarus iri kuvandudza kugona kwayo kuendesa zvombo zvenyukireya zvinodzorwa neRussia munharaunda yayo: "Kuendeswa kwezvombo zvenyukireya zvisiri zvehurongwa muBelarus kunongodzamisa hukama pakati penyika mbiri idzi uye kukurudzira Moscow kuchengetedza kutonga kweMinsk pazvose.".
Russian GDP uye mari yekudzivirira
Asi unorwisa sei muvengi, Madokero, anoshandisa zvakapetwa makumi maviri neshanu pazvombo? Russia ine GDP ye 2241 mabhiriyoni emadhora, vakabatikana muDefence 86,4 mabhiriyoni emadhora (gore 2022). Sekureva kweSipri data, zvakare tichireva nezvegore ra2022, North America inoshandisa 877 bhiriyoni emadhora, yakaenzana ne3,7% yeGDP yayo, asi pamusoro pezvose zvakaenzana ne39% yemari yayo yese yehondo yemarudzi ese epasirese kuita 2240. mabhiriyoni emadhora. Kuti tinzwisise kukura kwekuzvipira, USA inoshandisa zvakapetwa katatu kupfuura China iyo ichiri senyika yechipiri pasi rose maererano nemari yekudzivirira.
Muna 2024, Russia inotarisira kuenderera mberi nekuwedzera kushandiswa kwemauto kusvika 6% yeGDP yayo. The bhajeti Kudzivirirwa kunokwira kubva pa86,4 bhiriyoni pagore kuenda pamabhiriyoni zana negumi nembiri izvo zviri pachena kuti hazvina kukwana kana zvichienzaniswa nemadhora anoda kusvika mazana mapfumbamwe emadhora akaitwa nevanhu vekuAmerica.
Panyaya iyi, zvisinei, kufunga kusiri kwechipiri kunofanira kuitwa: zvigadzirwa nevashandi zvinouya zvakanyanya kubva mukati meFederation uko, zvinozivikanwa, mutengo wekurarama wakaderera zvakanyanya kana uchienzaniswa nehupfumi hwazvino (nzvimbo ye110 pasi rose).
Sechiratidzo, kukosha kweavhareji muhoro muMoscow ine hunyanzvi, iyo inotenderedza 900 euros pamwedzi (pasina chero mutsauko wakakura pakati pevashandi, migodhi uye mainjiniya). Ivo havasi vazhinji, asi vachiri kupfuura avhareji yenyika iyo, maererano nenhamba dzakapihwa neFederal Statistics Office muMoscow, inomira paavhareji pa450 euros pamwedzi.
Il International Monetary Fund yakabva yasimbisa kusimba kwehupfumi hweRussian Federation kune zvirango zvekuMadokero. Uyewo kutsigira hutano hwehupfumi hweMoscow World Economic Outlook yaChikunguru yapfuura iyo inoona kukura kweGDP pa + 2024% muna 1,3.
Kuwedzera kunoramba kuripo muRussia GDP, maererano nevacherechedzi vepasirese, kunonyanya kukonzerwa oiri uye gasi mari yekunze kunze kwenyika, iyo yakaramba isina kuchinjika kunyangwe mushure mehondo uye zvirango.
Russia inotengesa gasi nemafuta zvisinei nezvirango
Ongororo nepepanhau reGerman Nyikamwedzi yapfuura, akaburitsa zano rakatorwa neMoscow rekuenderera mberi nekutengesa mafuta ayo, kunyanya kumusika weAsia, vachishandisa makambani ekutakura ekunze anotakura mafuta asina kuchena kubva kumahombekombe eRussia paGungwa Dzvuku , chikamu chetatu chezvose, kuburikidza ne chiteshi chengarava cheNovorossiysk.
Nekudaro, njodzi kubva kuUkraine kupinda muGungwa Dzvuku dzinogona kukurumidza kuedza kweRussia kushandisa Nzira yeNorth Sea (NSR) kutakura mafuta akashata kuenda kumisika yepasi rose, kunyanya muAsia. Kune akawanda ematangi emafuta ayo, mumwedzi ichangopfuura, akayambuka nzira yeArctic kusvika kuChina neIndia.
Kutengeserana kunosanganisira Russia, zvisinei, kunotenderwa chete kana kuri kufambirana nemutengo wepamusoro unogumira padhiramu yakagadzwa nenyika dzeG7, EU neAustralia. Kutenderera ichi chinomanikidza, zvakare maererano neDie Welt, Moscow inonzi yakatenga matangi emafuta ekare aibhururuka mireza yekuMadokero kuti atakure zvinhu zvayo. Zvikepe izvi zvinodzivirira kubhadhara inishuwarenzi inodiwa uye kudzima redhiyo pagungwa (transponders) kuti vafambe vasingazivikanwe vovanza nzira dzavo. IEU iri kuyedza kukanganisa chiitiko ichi nekurambidza ngarava kuti dzishaye nhare kuEuropean ports. Chiyero chacho chinosanganisirwa muchikamu chegumi nerimwe chezvirango.
Kuti varambe vachitsigira hondo, chikamu chimwe muzvitatu chehupfumi hweRussia, maererano neWestern intelligence, yakashandurwa zvachose kuti isangane nezvinodiwa zvemberi. Kugadzirwa kwemafekitari aibatanidzwa naizvozvo kwakashandurwa kubva kumunhuwo zvake kuenda kuhondo, zvichiisa mashifiti anonetesa kuvashandi, mazuva manomwe pasvondo.
Kana ari iwo zvakakosha zvikamu semamicrochips, Moscow ichiri kukwanisa kuwana zvekushandisa muAsia asiwo kuMadokero kuburikidza nenyika yechitatu. Zvemaroketi nemabhomba artillery chibvumirano chakasainwa ne North Korea iyo ine madhipatimendi azere nezvombo izvo, kunyangwe zvikaitika, zvinogona kuramba zvichifarira zano reKremlin mukutsvaga chinangwa chehunyanzvi chekuenderera mberi kwekubhomba muUkraine.
Nyorera kune yedu yemashoko!