Iyo geopolitical kusawirirana kwe2024

yevashandi vevanyori

2024 inoona mamiriro asina kugadzikana epasi rese kubva kune rimwe divi repasi kuenda kune rimwe rine zvakakosha kugadzwa kwesarudzo izvo zvinokanganisa, European Union, Bangladesh, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, Russia, United States, Taiwan uye 18 nyika dzeAfrica. Saka ngatitarisei matambudziko makuru-hondo (kune makumi mashanu nepfumbamwe kusvika parizvino) idzo dzinoita kuti nyika dzepasirese dzifungidzirwe nekuda kwenjodzi huru yekubatanidzwa kwemauto enyika dzekuMadokero.

China-Taiwan

Mutungamiri weChina Xi Jinping yakazivisa nezuro kuti Taiwan ichabatanidzwa zvakare nenyika, ichiti Beijing "achadzivisa zvakasimba munhu upi noupi kupatsanura” mativi maviri nenzira ipi zvayo (parizvino sarudzo yekupindira kwemauto haina kubatanidzwa mukutaura). Mashoko aya, panguva yehurukuro muBeijing yekurangarira makore 130 ekuzvarwa kwa. Mao Zedong, baba vakavamba veCommunist China.

Muna 2023, China yakaronga maekisesaizi makuru echiuto akatenderedza Taiwan uye inogara ichitumira ngarava dzehondo nendege dzehondo muStrait. Maziso evanhu vepasi rose akatarisa pasarudzo dziri kuuya kuTaiwan musi wa13 Ndira uko Beijing inotsigira Lai Ching-te, mutungamiri weDemocratic Progressive Party (DPP).

Poda keg Middle East

Kuwedzera kunetseka kwakakomberedza nyaya yacho Gungwa Dzvuku zvichitevera kurwiswa kwezvikepe zvekutengesa (neboka revapanduki veYemeni, Houthis) uye nemauto eUS akamira muIraq. Tsaona dzacho dzinosanganisiraIran nemapoka ayo akabatana muMiddle East yose, ukuwo mhirizhonga pakati peIsrael neHamas muGaza ichienderera mberi uye maererano neIsrael ichagara kwemwedzi yakawanda.

Sekureva kwaChristopher O'Leary, aimbove mumiriri weFBI, hondo pakati peIsrael neHamas chikamu chechirongwa chakakura che "axis of resistance", zano rinodzorwa neIran rekuwana simba remudunhu nesimba kuburikidza nemapoka akaita seHamas, Palestine Islamic Islamic. Jihad, Hezbollah, Kataib Hezbollah uye maHouthi. Gurukota rezvekudzivirirwa kweIsrael, Yoav Gallant, anoti Israel yakatarisana nehondo ye "multi-front war," nekurwiswa kunobva kumativi manomwe akasiyana: Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, West Bank, Iraq, Yemen neIran.

O'Leary anoyambira kuti kana Iran ikafunga kuita zvine hungwaru, kusunungura mauto anotsiva nesimba rawo rose, dambudziko rakakura redunhu rinogona kumuka, kunyanya tichitarisa kuvepo kwemauto eUS muIraq neSyria. CNN inoshuma kuti varwi veUnited States vari kuwedzera kutarisana nemutsara une ngozi wemoto, uye mamiriro ezvinhu kuMiddle East ari kuramba achiwedzera, uye mamiriro ekuchengetedza ari kuwedzera munzvimbo dzakawanda, kubva kuGungwa Dzvuku kusvika kuIraq, kubva kuSiriya kusvika kuRebhanoni neIsrael.

Kurwiswa nguva pfupi yadarika, kutyisidzirana pakati peIran neUnited States, pamwe nekushanda kuri kuramba kuchiitika mumatunhu akati wandei, zvinoita kuti zvinhu zvinyanye kuoma. Zviitiko zvemunguva yemberi, umo mauto eUS kana midziyo yemugungwa inogona kukanganiswa zvakanyanya, zvinogona kutungamira kuWashington "kunyudzwa kumucheto wakadzika" kuMiddle East, mukupesana nekuedza kwakamboitwa.

CNN inoratidza kuti mukana wekuita zvechiuto kuMiddle East ungaunza dambudziko guru kuMutungamiri Biden, uyo akatogadzirisa matambudziko akasiyana siyana epasi rose uye akatarisisa mamiriro ezvinhu muUkraine. Yambiro pakutora nzira ine hukasha inoratidza kushushikana kuti kunetsana kwakananga neIran kunogona kukonzera bongozozo redunhu.

Kurwisana kweRussia-Ukrainian

United States ichapa Ukraine imwe itsva $54 miriyoni yekubatsira mauto, yayo yechimakumi mashanu neina kubva Nyamavhuvhu 2021, iyo inosanganisira mauto ekudzivirira emhepo Himars, Inobaya, pfumo, uye ye artillery, pamwe chete zvombo zvekurwisa matangi AT-4. A $61 bhiriyoni yekubatsira pakiti yeKiev ichiri kuvharwa muCongress nemaRepublican.

Zvinoenderana nezvakaziviswa nePentagon, uku ndiko "kugona kutsigira zvinonyanya kumanikidza zveUkraine kubvumidza mauto ayo kudzivirira hutongi hwayo uye rusununguko. Ikoko Utungamiri yeUS yakakosha kutsigira kuedza kwemubatanidzwa mukutsigira Ukraine iyo inosanganisira vangangosvika makumi mashanu vanobatana uye vanobatana. “Rubatsiro rwekuchengetedza kuUkraine imari yakangwara mukuchengetedza kwedu kwenyika", Dhipatimendi reDziviriro rakatsanangurwa mune chirevo.

Mari iyi yakaitwa kuti igoneke nemutungamiri wenyika inodhirowa, chishandiso chemitemo yekunze chinobvumira kukurumidza kuendeswa kwezvikamu kuDhipatimendi reDziviriro matura kune dzimwe nyika dziri munjodzi. Chishandiso chakashandiswa nguva pfupi yadarika muna Zvita 2022 kubatsira Taiwan ne345 miriyoni yekubatsira mauto pasuru, kupokana nekuwedzera kumanikidzwa kwemauto kubva kuChina.

Sekutaura kwevezvenhau, ndiyo inofanirwa kunge iri pasuru yekupedzisira, yakamirira sarudzo dzemutungamiri wenyika dzinotevera.

Akatarisana nekusabatanidzwa kwezvematongerwo enyika kweAmerica kubva muhondo muUkraine, mutungamiri weRussia Vladimir Putin akaudza mumwe wake wekuChina munaKurume wapfuura Xi Jinping kuti Russia "icharwa kwe (anenge) makore mashanu" muUkraine. Izvi zvakanyorwa neJapan vhiki nevhiki Nikkei Asia, iyo inotaura akati wandei asingazivikanwe masosi anoziva nezvehukama pakati peChina neRussia. Maererano nevhiki nevhiki, panguva yekushanya kwaXi kuRussia, Putin saka aida kupfupikisa mamiriro akanga asina kunaka kuMoscow panguva iyoyo, achivimbisa mutungamiri weChina kuti pakupedzisira Russia ichakunda hondo. Nikkei Asia anobva ataura kuti, tichifunga nezvemashoko aPutin kuna Xi, kuvhurika kwemutungamiri weRussia kumisa pfuti - yakashumwa neNew York Times svondo rapfuura - zvinogona kureva kuti Putin anongoda kuumba fungidziro yekuenda kune imwe nhanho kana runyararo mukati. maonero esarudzo dzemutungamiri wenyika yeRussia munaKurume, achitenda kuti mamiriro ezvinhu aya anogona kumufarira musarudzo.

Turkey uye Kurds

Mazuva mashoma apfuura, Turkey yakarova nzvimbo dzeKurdish kuchamhembe kweSyria nekurwiswa nedrone. Zvinangwa makumi mashanu zvakashandiswa nevarwi veKurdish muSyria mukudzorera mauto gumi nemaviri eTurkey akaurayiwa muIraq svondo rapfuura. Sangano reTurkey Intelligence Agency rakaburitsa mifananidzo yekurwiswa nendege paQamishli, Ain Al Arab (Kobani) neAmuda ese kuchamhembe kweSyria,  nzvimbo dzinoshandiswa muhondo, zveupfumi uye zvekugadzirisa zvinhu nevarwi veKurdish.

Nyika yakazadzwa ne micro-conflicts

L 'Afuganisitani mumaoko eTaliban inoramba iri nyika isina kugadzikana sevamwe vari kusangana nekusingaperi kwehondo yevagari vemo seLibya, Syria, Iraq neSouth Sudan. 

Kumwe kukakavadzana kwemukati kana kwepasirese kwakabatana nemapoka emagandanga, sezvakaitika kune IRA neETA vanorwira kuzvimiririra muNorthern Ireland uye munyika yeSpanish Basque. Masangano mazhinji ane zvombo ejihadist aripo munyika dzemuAfrica dzakadai seNigeria, Mali, Somalia kana Central African Republic kana kuMiddle East nyika dzakaita seSyria neIraq, kana muPakistan. 

Chekupedzisira, marudzi aya anogona kusanganiswa ne "low intensity" makakatanwa akadai seaya pakati peIndia nePakistan, ane hukama hwehukama hwakanyanya kwemakumi emakore, uye zvakare akagadziriswa zvakananga pane kanopfuura chiitiko chimwe.

Mutungamiriri weNorth Korea, Kim Jong-un, vakakurudzira bato ravo nezuro kuti “chikurumidze” kugadzirira hondo, kusanganisira chirongwa chenyukireya chenyika.

Izvi zvakataurwa nemukuru weNorth Korea nhau agency. Nhau dzinouya vhiki chete mushure mekunyevera kwake kuti Pyongyang aisazozeza kutanga kurwisa kana "akatsamwiswa" nezvombo zvenyukireya.

Nyorera kune yedu yemashoko!

Iyo geopolitical kusawirirana kwe2024

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