The increase in tensions on the Italian markets led the Btp-Bund difference over the 200 basis points threshold; this could have repercussions on the euro, even if for now the trend of the single currency has been determined by other factors. This is what Goldman Sachs analysts write in the daily report 'Global Markets Daily': "Most of the drop suffered by the euro, over the last month, reflects other factors, including the slowdown in the growth momentum of the euro. euro area, and the context of a broad strengthening of the dollar. However, judging by the trend in the relationship between the euro and the Swiss franc, we note that Italian risk has played a more central role in determining the trend of the single currency, especially since the first drafts on the M5S-Lega government contract they started to circulate. Going forward, until the Italian risk remains limited to the borders of the country, our forex team does not identify a greater downside risk, on the euro, linked to Italy. However, should the risk turn into an event of a more systemic nature, then the euro would discount the situation, initially more visible in the Eur-Chf report and subsequently in the Eur-Usd exchange rate ". "Based on the sensitivity to premiums on sovereign risk in the peripheral countries, we therefore expect that the euro-dollar ratio could fall by big figures in the case of an increase in systemic risk. If the fears were dampened, the Eur-Usd would go up 5-2 big figures, returning the Eur-Chf to 3.
In Italy, meanwhile, the new premier Giuseppe Conte writes on twitter "Morning of very fruitful work, we are working to give the government of change to this country", after the summit in the House on government structures.
On the other hand, the question of the proposal of the new Minister of the Treasury, Savona, worsens. Di Maio states: “I don't want to talk about names, because these are the prerogatives of President Conte and the President of the Republic. What I can tell you is that it is very compact, we are very satisfied with the work we are doing. We understand each other on the fly ”with Conte and Salvini.
In Germany, on the other hand, pessimism begins to spread and there is an inveigh against the choices of the nascent yellow-green government. In this regard, the attack by the German weekly Der Spiegel against "the freeloaders of Rome" was very hard. "The new government promises Italians heaven on earth", but wants to make the neighbors pay the bill even if it is certainly not a poor country, writes journalist Jan Fleischauer, recalling that the contract signed between Lega and M5S provides for asking the ECB the cancellation of 250 billion of debts. The man "who supplied the weapon" which is now being pointed at the neighbors "sits in Frankfurt", notes the article, targeting Mario Draghi with his "whatever it takes". "Now the ECB has no choice but to continue this policy because any rise in interest rates would lead Italy to insolvency". Basically, writes the magazine, it is a sort of "blackmail". Because if the Italians do not respect their payment obligations, "the euro will end and Germany will have lost the money committed to save it". "I find it indecent to impose the cost of one's political decisions on others .. this hardly fits with my concept of democracy", urges the journalist.