Although the Government for this first quarter has disbursed a good 5,5 billion euros in aid to families and businesses to counter the high bills, the amount remains, unfortunately, completely insufficient to mitigate the additional costs that will have to suffer this year. domestic and non-domestic users. It is clear that much more needs to be done. In fact, in the face of an increase in the cost of electricity and gas which for the current year amounts to a total of 89,7 billion, the coverage rate is just over 6 per cent. This was stated by the CGIA Studies Office which estimated the energy increases for 2022 and, following the aid put in place by the Draghi government to "cool" prices, also the percentage of price increases.

Price increases for electricity and gas of 89,7 billion

According to an estimate prepared by the CGIA Studies Office, in 2022 families and businesses will suffer an increase in the price of energy tariffs equal to 89,7 billion: 30,8 will be for families and 58,9 billion for businesses. How did these results come about? As regards households, the forecasts drawn up at the end of 2021 by Nomisma Energia were taken into consideration. Net of all the mitigation measures implemented by the Draghi government, according to the Bolognese research institute, an average Italian family will pay a total of 2022 euros more in 1.200. Therefore, compared to 25,7 million households in the country, the price increase for domestic users should be around 30,8 billion euros. As regards companies, however, it has been assumed that for the current year the consumption of electricity and gas will equal the same recorded in 2019 (pre-pandemic year). In addition, an average electricity tariff for businesses of € 2022 per MWh has been estimated for 150. It should be noted, in fact, that the main institutions foresee a progressive (albeit not very fast) cost reduction for both electricity and gas throughout 2022. The increase in electricity bills, therefore, will cost this. business year 35,8 billion euros. With reference to gas, an average tariff of 70 euros per MWh has been estimated for the current year. This hypothesis has allowed us to calculate a price increase for non-domestic users of 2022 billion for 23 (see Table 2).

Only "10,2 billion in aid: 500 thousand workers risk their jobs

Up to now, the Draghi Government has approved a series of measures to mitigate the increases in energy tariffs which amount to a total of 10,2 billion: 4,7 have been disbursed for the second part of 2021, another 3,8 have been introduced with the 2022 Budget Law to which 1,7 billion allocated yesterday by decree are added. Although the figure in absolute terms is very significant, the percentage reduction of additional costs for households and businesses expected in 2022 is still very low: as we said, it is 6 percent. It is clear that with a public debt that is around 155 per cent of GDP it is very risky to still produce a new deficit. But it is equally true that if new resources are not found able to calm energy bills, many entrepreneurial activities will not withstand these cost increases and the public money saved will have to be spent to pay the Cig or unemployment benefits to the workers who will be lost. the place. According to a survey conducted by the CGIA Studies Office in recent weeks, almost 1,8 million employees in Italy work in the so-called energy-intensive sectors. If these price increases continue for a good part of this year, it cannot be ruled out that 500 risk, even temporarily, to stay at home.

Second half of 2021 stellar increases in light (+ 302%) and gas (+ 346%). But not for everyone 

Between May and December 2021, the price increases of energy components were frightening: + 302 per cent for electricity and + 346 per cent for gas. If before the summer the price was around 70 euros per megawatt hour, at the end of the year it jumped to 281,2 euros. The price increase recorded by gas is even more marked. If in May the cost was 25,4 euros per megawatt hour, seven months later it rose to 113,3 euros. However, it should be noted that not all of them have suffered these stellar increases. Companies that had a fixed-rate contract with their supplier before the summer, for example, were "saved". On the other hand, those who had a variable rate contract had no escape: the cost increases put a strain on budget balances.

Estimated energy costs for Italian companies in 2022

(electricity and gas compared to 2019, pre-Covid year)

Values ​​in GWh and millions of euros

CGIA Research Department elaboration on Terna, Arera, Eurostat and GME data

CGIA: Government aid covers only 6% of the price increases