Due to Covid, this year every Italian will lose on average almost 2.500 euros (precisely 2.484), with peaks of 3.456 euros in Florence, 3.603 euros in Bologna, 3.645 in Modena, 4.058 in Bolzano and even 5.575 euros in Milan.
The CGIA Studies Office has thought about the contraction of the added value per inhabitant at the provincial level which, moreover, has denounced another particularly alarming data: even if it will suffer a reduction in GDP more contained than all the other macro areas of the Country (- 9 percent), the South will see GDP fall to the same level as in 1989.
In terms of wealth, therefore, it will "go back" by 31 years. On a regional basis Molise, Campania and Calabria will return to the same level of real GDP achieved in 1988 (32 years ago) and Sicily no less than that of 1986 (34 years ago).
The craftsmen from Mestre are keen to point out that the data that emerged in this elaboration are certainly underestimated. Updated as of October 13, they do not take into account the negative economic effects that will derive from the latest DPCM that were introduced in the last two weeks. Furthermore, they specify that in this elaboration the forecast of the fall in the national GDP should touch 10 percent this year, almost a point more than the forecasts communicated last month by the Government through the NADEF (Update of the Economic Document and Finance).
"With less money in your pocket, more unemployed and many businesses that will close their doors by the end of the year - declared the coordinator of the Studies Office Paolo Zabeo - we risk that the very serious economic difficulty we are experiencing at the moment will lead to a dangerous social crisis. Especially in the South, which is the area of the country most in difficulty, there is the danger that the criminal organizations of the mafia type ride this discomfort and derive a great advantage in terms of consensus. In this phase of emergency, therefore, all this must be absolutely avoided, supporting with non-repayable contributions not only the activities that will be forced to close by decree, but also a good part of the others, especially the artisanal and commercial ones, which, although they have the possibility to keep it open, for a week already they have been complaining that hardly anyone enters their shop anymore. In fact, only if we manage to keep companies alive will we be able to defend jobs, otherwise we will be called to face very difficult months ".
While massive amounts of compensation are still essential to businesses in the short term, in the medium-long term, on the other hand, it is absolutely necessary to relaunch domestic demand, through a drastic reduction in taxes on households and businesses to restart both consumption and investments.
Unfortunately, the much-needed tax reform will only be introduced starting from 2022 and investments in large infrastructures are linked to financing from the Next Generation US which, in the best of hypotheses, will arrive only in the second half of 2021, becoming effective only from the following year.
Declares the secretary Renato Mason: "With an unbearable tax pressure, an oppressive bureaucracy that unjustifiably continues to penalize those who do business and a very worrying drop in investments that especially affects those of a public nature, there is another major criticality that risks penalizing many small and medium-sized enterprises. We refer to the new measure introduced by the European Union on credit matters. To avoid the negative effects of overdue exposures, from 2021 January 3 Brussels required banks to write off unsecured loans at risk in 7 years and those with collateral in 9-XNUMX years. Obviously, the application of this provision will induce credit institutions to issue loans to businesses with extreme caution, in order to avoid having to incur heavy budget losses within a few years ”.
La concern, concludes the CGIA, concerns the tenure of employment. If in the coming months the number of unemployed were destined to increase rapidly, the social stability of the country would be at great risk. Thanks to the introduction of the redundancy freeze, this year the number of employees will drop by about 500 units. Certainly a negative figure, but it would have been even more so if the aforementioned measure had not been introduced by the Government last March.
In percentage terms, the South will always be the geographical division of the country to suffer the most marked contraction (-2,9 per cent equal to -180.700 employees). Sicily (- 2,9 percent), Valle d'Aosta (-3,3 percent), Campania (- 3,5 percent) and Calabria (-5,1 percent), on the other hand, will be the most " hit ". Of all the 20 regions monitored by the CGIA Studies Office, only Friuli Venezia Giulia, on the other hand, seems to register a positive variation (+0,2 percent), equal, in absolute terms, to +800 units. A result, the latter, which, however, has worsened considerably in recent weeks.
Therefore, it is not excluded, concludes the CGIA, that even in this region the final figure may become negative.