In the last 20 years the wealth of our country (GDP) has grown on average by 0,2 per cent every year. A very worrying fact that is attributable, in particular, to the negative effects caused by the great crisis started in the 2008. And although more than a decade has passed since this event, together with Greece we are the only country in the euro area that has not yet recovered the pre-crisis situation (2007). Compared to 12 years ago, in fact, we still have to "reconquer" 4,2 percentage points of GDP, but also 19,2 investment points, 5,9 points of household disposable income and 1,4 percentage points of household consumption.
These difficulties, unfortunately, continue to persist, despite the number of employees having increased: in this last dozen years, in fact, the number of employees has risen by 1,6 per cent (we have exceeded the threshold of 23 million workers). And despite this positive aspect, the total time and the average level of salaries have decreased, due to a marked increase in precariousness, while unemployment has increased by 81 per cent (the average annual rate was at 6 and now it is around at 10 per cent). With less money available, we still have to recover 5,9 points of household disposable income and 1,4 consumption points. Finally, from the analysis of these indicators, the only truly positive signal comes from exports: compared to the 2007, the percent of 17,5 rose, mainly affecting the Centronord regions.
"It should however be emphasized - comments the coordinator of the Studies Office Paolo Zabeo - that the average trend of the wealth produced in our country is affected by the strong differences existing between North and South. , 20 per cent, the South, on the other hand, fell by 7,5 percentage points. Again in this period, the average annual growth recorded in the north was 6 per cent, equal to double the national average. In the south, however, the average annual GDP contracted by 0,4 percent ”.
Unfortunately, the forecasts do not bode well. As the OECD reported in recent days, both in the 2019 and in the 2020 the growth of the Italian GDP will be zero point. A trend conditioned by a very difficult world economic situation that is spreading signs of uncertainty and mistrust throughout the euro area which, however, has grown by 2000 per cent since the 30; 7 times more than the increase recorded by Italy.
Low productivity of the country system, infrastructural deficits, too many taxes and a dull and excessive bureaucracy are the main causes of this difference with our main economic partners. If, however, in this time frame we analyze the performance of our public accounts, rigor has never failed.
“In the last 18 years - declares the Secretary of the CGIA Renato Mason - in just one year, 2009, the primary balance, given by the difference between total revenues and total public expenditure net of interest on public debt, was negative. In all other years, however, it was positive and, therefore, the outgoings were lower than the incomes. As a further demonstration that since the advent of the single currency, Italy has maintained its commitment to consolidate its public accounts, despite the effects of the economic crisis being more negative in Italy than elsewhere ".
It is equally important to point out that between the 2000 and the 2007 (pre-crisis year) the growth trend of the regions of the Center (Tuscany, Lazio, Umbria and Marche) was even higher than that of the North (Piedmont, Valle d'Aosta , Liguria, Lombardy, Trentino Alto Adige, Veneto, Friuli Venezia Giulia and Emilia Romagna). Subsequently, although it fell as in the rest of the country, the economic record of the Center continued even into the darkest period of the crisis (2008-2014). Only from the 2015 has the North re-emerged, distancing the other geographical divisions of the country.
According to the CGIA the theme of investments remains central to outline any economic development policy. Without investments, stable and lasting jobs are not created that can improve the productivity of the system and, consequently, increase the level of average wages and consumption.
The collapse in investments in recent years is due to the crisis, but also to the constraints on net debt that have been imposed on us by Brussels. A series of constraints which, however, we could overcome if, as the Fiscal Compact provides, the European Union introduced the golden rule. That is, the possibility that public capital investments are separated from the calculation of the deficit in order to comply with the stability pact between member states.
In light of this picture emerged from the analysis carried out by the Studies Office, the CGIA indicates at least 5 interventions that the new Government should implement to relaunch the economy, focusing, in particular, on the needs of the SMEs that constitute the connective tissue of the Country . They are:
- Strong tax reduction and simplification of the tax system
A fiscal shock is needed to reduce, in 3 years, the tax burden of at least 5 percentage points. Such as ? By cutting the tax wedge, eliminating IRAP for micro and small businesses, abolishing split payments, the reverse charge in the building sector and progressively reducing the IRPEF, IRES, IRAP and INPS advances. Moreover, it is important to reduce the weight of the fiscal bureaucracy that is penalizing above all the very small activities.
- Encourage access to credit
From 2011 to today, loans to businesses have fallen by 27 per cent. It is important to promote a concerted intervention with the other States and with the European institutions so that the ECB provides special loans to banks with destination restrictions in favor of micro and small businesses. Moreover, it is necessary to activate alternative financing instruments to bank credit. Finally, all companies must be allowed to offset receivables from PA (certain, liquid and payable) with all tax debts.
- Go back to investing
Compared to 2007 (the pre-crisis year), investments in Italy fell by almost 20 percentage points. To allow even small businesses to grow and create jobs, it is necessary for the central state to return to investing in tangible and intangible infrastructures, bypassing the budget constraints imposed by Brussels. How? By applying, after having reached an agreement with the other EU countries, the budget rule ("Golden rule") according to which public investments can be separated from the calculation of the deficit in order to comply with the stability pact between member states of European Union.
- Encourage work and training interventions
It is essential to re-launch investment in education to combat early school leaving. Professional training must also be encouraged from a supply chain perspective that puts the dual system (alternating school / work and apprenticeship) up to speed, financially helping the technical and professional institutions of the "frontier". In addition, incentives to encourage the entry of young people into the labor market as new entrepreneurs must also be made stable and not limited in time.
- Investing in the 4.0 company and in the use of digital
Until now, the effects of the 4.0 enterprise have almost exclusively affected medium and large companies. We must also think of the micro-enterprises and the artisans who undertake the digital transformation path with the same communicative interest, the same bureaucratic preferential lanes and the same special resources attributed to start-ups and technological SMEs.