By Massimiliano D'Elia
The images and videos of the intervention of the international coalition in Iraq in 2003 and in Libya in 2011 had impressed us when, in the early stages of the conflict, they showed the enemy night sky illuminated by the tracers of the anti-aircraft defense system, struggling with the sorties of the coalition aircraft. Air operations, often complex, necessary for the conquest of air supremacy and the subsequent intervention of troops on the ground.
Lessons Learned which then influenced military doctrines for the years to come up until the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, where every paradigm assumed and consolidated over time began to creak in the face of a different, modern and unpredictable operational reality which often involved different domains of confrontation at the same time but which also resurrected tactical uses of the past dating back to the former Soviet Union.
Putin in his “special military operation” in Ukraine has decided to change the patterns by relying on the doctrine of its head of the armed forces, general Valery Gerasimov. It involves hitting the adversary not only physically but also psychologically at its weakest point, where it has no credible deterrence, using highly pervasive systems to accompany, hand in hand, military action. Let's talk about hybrid war often implemented also with non-state means and systems with the ultimate aim of generate the Chaos in Chaos in adversaries' clubs.
The Gerasimov Doctrine
In February 2013 the General Gerasimov published a treatise entitled “The Value of Science Is in the Foresight" where he explained hybrid warfare as a confrontation, in some ways invisible, in which tactics developed in the Soviet era are integrated with strategic military thinking about total war. Gerasimov presented a new theory of modern warfare that aims to hack the enemy's societies, rather than attacking them head-on. In the treatise he argued as follows: “The 'rules of war' have changed. The role of non-military means to achieve political and strategic goals has grown and, in many cases, has outweighed the power of the force of arms in their effectiveness. All this is complemented by military means of an occult nature”. By military means of an occult nature refers to mercenaries, such as the paramilitary Brigade of Wagner Group, widely used by Moscow, with mixed success, in Syria, Africa and Ukraine.
Russian deterrence
Among the successfully tested Russian super missiles is the intercontinental missile Sarmat capable of reaching targets at 16 thousand kilometers and the rocket Kinzhal at intermediate range (2000 km) which has been widely used by Moscow during the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Among the most innovative weapons for which tests have not yet started, the Poseidon torpedo, always nuclear-powered and therefore capable of remaining under the oceans for days or even years, ready to strike at any point on the globe and theVangard, a gliding nuclear warhead which, once launched, would be capable of reaching the upper part of the stratosphere to acquire a speed equal to twenty times the speed of sound and then glide towards any target. The very powerful did not go unnoticed Zadira laser weapon, used in the conflict in Ukraine to blind satellites, while a more powerful version, according to the Kremlin, would be able to destroy satellites in orbit.
The use of the air force in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict
Faced with an insufficient Ukrainian air force (about 300 old aircraft), the Russian Air Force was nevertheless used at 10% of its real capabilities for a series of operational reasons: the strength of the Ukrainian response, guaranteed by modern defense systems aircraft provided by the Westerners and the consideration, not secondary, of avoiding handing over important technological information of the downed aircraft to the enemy.
To try to make the desired leap in quality and move a conflict that has now become static, the Ukrainians have asked the United States, the EU and the UK for fourth generation fighter aircraft such as the F-16 which, after the initial resistors and only after the placet American, will be supplied to the Kiev air force in 2024. The delivery of more modern fighters has thus started the delicate training phase of Ukrainian pilots. Despite the difficulties due to their language, the Ukrainian pilots finished the phase “ground” of training at the American flight simulators to move on to the next phase of training real on aircraft.
In the meantime, the Ukrainians have demonstrated that they have learned to use Western air defense weapons with extreme intelligence and skill, managing to move them quickly after each attack so as not to be detected by Russian reconnaissance aircraft. The Russians, unable to achieve complete air supremacy, had to change their strategy by implementing the use of missiles and drones with a consistency and persistence never seen in any other modern conflict.
The limit of this operational choice, however, lies in the fact that it requires a continuous supply of ammunition on both sides. Ammunition that is starting to run out and that cannot be delivered for an indefinite time because Western arsenals are not prepared for such an eventuality and are unable to keep up - "battle rhythm” – of the conflict.
The Russian air fleet
According to the data of the World Air Force 2023, Russia has the second largest military air fleet in the world with 4.182 aircraft. Data which should however be compared with the fighters destroyed during the months of conflict against Ukraine, where a large number of Russian aircraft such as the Su-25 and Su-34 and Ka-52 as well as the Mi-24 combat helicopters were lost . At the end of 2022, Kiev's Defense Ministry declared that its air forces had destroyed as many as 278 enemy fixed-wing aircraft, 261 helicopters and 1.509 unmanned aerial vehicles. Naturally, they are data to be taken with a grain of salt in consideration of propaganda and war communication which, as is known, is always artfully designed to confuse the adversary.
Drones, true protagonists of war
The real protagonists of the Russian-Ukrainian war are drones, used in all environments: air, land surface, maritime and even underwater.
Iran has delivered hundreds of class drones to the Russian army Shahed, specifically the Shared-129, a Predator-style drone that can fly more than 1.000 miles, armable with missiles, and the Shahed-191, a drone capable of carrying missiles for approximately 300 miles. Drones that allowed Moscow to continue persistent attacks and balance the tactical advantage gained by the Ukrainians, at the beginning of the war, following the use of Turkish drones Bayraktar.
The clamor of Ukrainian successes, thanks to the Turkish drone, against the Russian tanks was celebrated with a popular song. The Turkish company that produces Bayraktar, according to national media, is building a drone factory in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian government has implemented programs for the construction of drones in order to become a hub world-class in the sector, thanks to the tactical experience gained directly in the field. For this reason the Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov, sent 1.700 new drones to the front, trained 10.000 operators in 26 centers and prepared another 10.000 for future training.
Some models of drones used in the conflict
Among the various drone models used, the UJ-22 Airborne single-engine propeller drone produced by the Kiev company Ukrjet was also very effective. It weighs 85 kg, with a wingspan of 4,6 m and a length of 3,3 m and is powered by a petrol engine. It has a cruising speed of 120 km/h, which can be increased to a maximum of 160 km/h, and a range of 800 km. Such a range could allow a UJ-22 to easily arrive at the gates of Moscow.
The Beaver drone created by the Ukrainian military industry consortium Ukroboronprom was also used successfully. The Beaver is 2,5 meters long and has a wingspan of 2,5 meters and weighs 150 kg. The maximum speed would be around 200 km/h, while the range would reach 1000 kilometres, much higher than that of the UJ-22. Unlike the UJ-22, it can be used as a kamikaze drone because it integrates the explosive charge in the fuselage.
Other UAV models have been widely used, such as the Leleka 100, a small reconnaissance aircraft with 1,9 m wingspan and 70 km/h maximum speed, and the Furja, of similar size. Valeriy Borovyk built the drone”stealth” Vidsyichche has a range of 40 kilometers and can carry a warhead of between 2 and 3 kilos of explosives. Not just homemade drones, German Rheinmetall delivered the Luna NG reconnaissance drone to the Ukrainian forces with a range of over 100 km and the ability to monitor an area of 30.000 square km with sensors.
Not only unmanned aerial vehicles but also small naval drones have marked an unexpected tactical turning point. After the attack on 17 July 2023 which damaged the Kerch bridge, between Crimea and the Russian Taman peninsula, the USVs, Unmanned Surface Vehicle, of the Kiev Navy hit ships in the Novorossiysk roadstead. The success was certified by the USV Magura – Maritime Autonomous Guard Unmanned Robotic Apparatus – manufactured by the Kiev state-owned company SpetsTechnoExport. The MAGURA is 5,5 meters long, sails on the surface of the water emerging only 50 cm with a maximum speed of 80 km/h for a range of 830 km.
In addition to the Iranian-made drones, the Russians used a kamikaze drone, the Lancet, produced by ZALA of Izhevsk. The Lancet, successfully tested in 2021 in Syria, has a circuit munition equipped with two rows of cruciform X-shaped wings, with a pushing propeller, driven by an electric motor which makes it extremely silent. Other drones used by the Russians are the Orlan with a wingspan of 3,1 meters and a maximum speed of 150 km/h and a range of 110 kilometres.
Similar to the mighty American MQ-9s, the Kronstadt Orions have 16 meters of wingspan and 8 meters of length, they fly at 200 km/h for a maximum range of 1400 km.
The Russians also imported the Mohajer 6 reconnaissance aircraft from Iran.
Russia has started producing and using its own version of the Iranian Shahed with 100 more components, they are produced by 22 companies from 7 different countries, including not only Russia, but also companies based in China, Switzerland and the United States . The Washington Post recently revealed that the Kremlin plans to build around 2025 drones by 6000.
Absolute novelty: Cardboard drones
Cardboard drones, a weapon that is difficult to intercept and very low cost. The drones in question are i Corvo Precision Payload Delivery System, they are produced by an Australian company, Sypaq which won a contract with the Australian army worth over one million euros.
According to the manufacturer, these “cardboard planes” are easy to assemble – the drone arrives in a package about half a meter long and is not much more complicated than an IKEA product – and even easier to launch thanks to simple rubber bands. Drones can fly up to 120 kilometers to deliver supplies and equipment to areas that traditional logistics capabilities cannot reach. But the Ukrainian military has adapted the technology by adapting drones for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions by simply installing a camera in a hole in the waxed cardboard frame. With a reported cost of around $3.500 each, they are cheap by military standards and can fly at 60 kilometers per hour completely invisible to radar.
American programs
The Pentagon has decided to invest huge resources in programs that envisage the construction of thousands of small and large drones within two years. Drones in flight, on land, at sea and underwater and potentially even in orbit, capable of moving in swarms or operating completely alone.
Not just the known Valkyriema Anchor me Venom: an American program that places pilots inside F-16 aircraft, equipped with an Artificial Intelligence system capable of managing the most important decisions of the mission. Another futuristic program is the Replicator, promoted by the deputy secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks: it will be able to produce a huge fleet of aerial, terrestrial and marine drones that can be deployed by the thousands in formation as a deadly swarm. Swarms of drones can ensure the evasion and saturation of enemy air defenses, thus reaching the objective (an example of the saturation of airspace was the simultaneous attack on 7 October last by Hamas). Their affordability allows them to be used only once to carry out high tactical impact missions such as the suicide ones seen in Ukraine or Russia.
The program "Collaborative Combat Aircraft” of the Air Force instead allows autonomous drones to fly alongside the new B-21 bomber or the advanced F-35 fighter, working as wingmen and thus adding additional dots on the enemy's radar screen to confuse him. Among the advantages of drone programs, their cost-effectiveness compared to the very expensive modern fighter programs is incontrovertible.
NATO exercises with maritime drones
In Portugal, two NATO exercises were carried out on the Island of Troia, focusing on the integration of new maritime technologies into operations and the ability of autonomous underwater vehicles to operate together. The first exercise is DYNAMIC MESSENGER 23 (18-29 September) which focused on the integration of unmanned maritime systems into naval operations.
The second exercise was REPMUS 23– Robotic Experimentation and Prototyping with Maritime Unmanned Systems – which took place in the same region from 11 to 22 September and focused on capacity building and interoperability. Both REPMUS 23 and DYNAMIC MESSENGER 23 have developed significant partnerships between the private sector and academia and provide guidance for future technological advances, operational concepts, doctrine and work programs.
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