La Einaudi Foundation asked the Government to declassify the acts of Scientific Technical Committee (CTS), those that pushed the executive to launch, in the month of March, various dpcm to gradually impose the complete "lockdown " to Italy. At the beginning of March, the CTS recommended dividing Italy in two with stricter measures for the areas with the highest incidence of infections and another, with larger meshes, for the entire national territory. In essence, he recommended a closure to areas of the country. In 24 hours the government, on the other hand, decided to shut down all of Italy.
In the minutes of March 3, the technicians also faced the possibility of closing Alzano e Nembro, or immediately decree the red zone. The two municipalities, due to the high number of deaths, are today under the magnifying glass by the Bergamo Public Prosecutor's Office due to the failure to establish the red zone. Both the premier have already been heard in this regard Giuseppe Conte than the Lombard governor Attilio Fontana. Conte explained that to close all of Lombardy was a political choice of the government that came after a confrontation with experts, in agreement with the Lombardy region. Lombardy, Conte specified to the Bergamo prosecutor, could still have imposed "red zones" independently. A possibility that, according to the Lombard governor, belonged to the central government.
Therefore, the "political" motivations that led the government to close Italy in a linear fashion without evaluating a zone closure are not yet known, fHowever, some clarification may come out of the minutes of March 18, not yet made public.
It is easy now, with hindsight, to ask questions and animate the most insinuating criticisms of those who in those days had to decide quickly, in full emergency. A legitimate question, however, is posed by a de The messenger. How much did the general arrest of Italy decided by the government around March 10, when the Covid-19 infection practically concerned only some areas of the North, cost the Center-South?
The answer is difficult to quantify, however the journalist tries to make two calculations by hypothesizing an overall loss of approximately € 100 billion. The same that, ironically, the Government asked in deficit to enact the various decrees (Liquidity, Italy, Relaunch, August).
The figure is derived from the reduction in GDP which for this year is estimated at around 10%, or a deficit of about 175 billion out of 1800 billion of GDP. Considering the forced closure of the three northern regions, Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia, which alone bring about 715 billion euros, the calculation is done.
But to clarify the drama of the "lockdown" on the economy was the Svimez report which estimated a loss of value added on a monthly basis of almost 48 billion euros (3,1% of Italian GDP), over 37 of which were lost in the Center-North and 10 in the South. This is 788 euros per capita per month in the Italian average. 1000 euros in the North against almost 500 in the South. The overall loss of turnover was over 25,2 billion in Italy, for each month of the block.