For NATO, the EU, the US and the UK, a new challenge lies ahead, the logistical one, because the Ukrainian armed forces need to be resupplied as soon as possible, given that Russia has intensified its firepower. Russia manages to send an average of 20.000 artillery pieces a day to Ukraine, equal to the European monthly production.
Therefore, spare parts, fuel and above all ammunition are needed assiduously because consumption has exceeded production. Yesterday the secretary general of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg raised the alarm asking to increase production: “The lead time for large caliber ammunition has increased from 12 to 28 months, meaning that orders placed today would only be delivered in two and a half years." Stoltenberg then made an aside: “speed will be crucial because Moscow will try to compensate for the lack of quality with quantity and is willing to accept a much higher number of losses”.
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The case is also being discussed within the European Union. Kaja Kallas, the Estonian prime minister told reporters that he had proposed to the EU Commission to buy together pieces of artillery to transfer them directly to Ukraine: “A bit like we did for vaccines during the Covid-19 pandemic. The Commission collects the requests, the funds of the States and then places the orders”.
Kallas argued the proposal by underlining that the "Russia has entered a war economy, with factories running around the clock. In Europe, we have not yet taken any steps in this direction".
Last autumn, the European executive presented a draft law to allow joint purchases of emergency equipment for a value of 500 million euros. The text of the law is still pending in the EU Parliament and no forthcoming discussion on it is expected.
As Le Monde writes, the mapping of needs, but also of existing European industrial capacities, is sadly known after the studies carried out, starting in May 2022, by a working group at the European Defense Agency (EDA).
To speed up the joint purchase process, you could use the European Peace Facility (EPF), a fund endowed with 3,6 billion of euros which will be increased by a further 2 billion between 2024 and 2027. The EPF makes it possible to partially reimburse states that transfer arms to Ukraine and to finance the training of around 30.000 Ukrainian soldiers. For 2023, 911 million euros of this fund have already been allocated.
The problem of military supplies to Ukraine will be dealt with today in Brussels by the thirty NATO defense ministers, twenty-three of whom are EU members. The EU representatives, here, will be able to discuss and perhaps be inspired by the system for the purchase of arms and ammunition in use by NATO.
In addition to the supply of weapons and ammunition on the table at today's meeting in Brussels among the defense ministers there is also the issue of sending jets to Ukraine. Yesterday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg started making some openings: "Sending NATO aircraft to set up a no-fly zone would involve our direct involvement, but providing them to the Ukrainians for use is another matter".
As Corsera writes, it is probable that a decision will be made to act in stages. Initially supply the MiG-29s made available by Slovakia and then think about sending the F-16s. While for the MiG it is not necessary to carry out specific courses for the F-16, a training of at least two months for which Great Britain has proposed.
In order not to risk widening the conflict, however, through Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, Berlin said that Germany does not intend to send any jets. Stoltenberg deflected the discussion by saying that “Of course it's important to discuss new systems, but the more pressing need is to ensure that all systems that are present or not present are committed or delivered and are functioning as they should. Russia has already started its new offensive and weapons are needed to fight back now".