(by Pasquale Preziosa - President of the Security Observatory - EURISPES) Overall, the Costs of War Project estimated 241 people who died as a result of the war in Afghanistan. Among them, over 2.400 members of the US armed forces and at least 71 civilians, as well as 78.000 Afghan soldiers and policemen and 84 fighters from insurgent groups.
According l 'UNICEF, 3 million and 700 thousand are the number of children in Afghanistan who do not go to school, 60% of whom are girls.
Numbers that, of course, leave out the deaths caused by disease, malnutrition, blocking access to water and infrastructure and all the other indirect consequences of the war itself.
And now that the troops of the international coalition, after twenty years, have withdrawn from Afghanistan, the Taliban regain control over several territories, the civil rights won are at risk and the country is a powder keg. It is the story of a failure largely signed by Europe as well.
What happened to that important European defense project? Why is it essential to establish a European Defense instrument? What form can it take?
In this regard, as mentioned in an interview with The newspaper, now or never we need a European defense pillar.
Why do we need a European defense pillar?
The president of the Republic Sergio Mattarella he intervened several times, declaring the strong need to protect Europe with its own defensive pillar, also with a view to strengthening transatlantic relations.
American choices in the postwar period were strongly influenced by the Monroe doctrine (US isolationism). The resulting imbalance in the international order was the fundamental cause of the Second World War.
The difficulties of the United States today in guaranteeing international order have become unsustainable for a single country, even if that country is the first world power.
This imbalance could be balanced by the assumption of responsibility by Europe, which has become one of the first trading powers in the world, but not yet a complete player in the international arena. If this happens, a multipolar order can more easily develop peacefully on a world level.
What are the strategic scenarios that can be envisaged?
If what hypothesized does not materialize, that is, Europe's refusal to assume responsibilities corresponding to its potential and a new American isolationism, these could constitute the most serious crisis factors in the international order. If, on the other hand, Europe were to assume its responsibilities, the USA would have the opportunity to relaunch the constructive role (Roosevelt) played after the Second World War and unfortunately lost, after the collapse of the Berlin Wall a few years.
How does NATO fit into these scenarios?
In the first hypothesized scenario, the NATO Alliance, architect of European security in the last seventy years, would go into severe crisis with very serious effects on the possibility of avoiding conflicts in Europe. In the second scenario, NATO can be strengthened on the basis of an equal partnership between the United States and Europe. Solidarity between the US and Europe on the basis of an equal partnership will be able to facilitate the peaceful insertion of new powers in world governance by making hegemonic aspirations obsolete. This underlines that the choices that are possible and necessary today are capable of determining not only the future of Europe's defense but the balance between the risks of war and the possibilities for peace on a world level.
What form can European defense take?
It is necessary to study implementation models that have already given positive results in the past. US experience teaches that defense can be organized in different ways. The one implemented in the USA saw the birth of a dual model of the Armed Forces: the central authorities owned the emergency response forces, while the member states were responsible for organizing the territorial forces.
The conditions prevailing in Europe today are similar to those in the US in the early days. The establishment, through the reorganization of NATO's European forces, of a small European defense pillar within NATO (without the need for new forces), would be the first step in building European defense accompanied by the expansion of command structures. and control in Brussels. The constructive spirit must be that suggested by Monnet for Enhanced Cooperation which allowed the creation of the ECSC first and then of the European Union.
Either now or never!
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